6 singles or 4 out of 6?

[2good4u]

My first lenghty post coming: Let's take the example of even odds and see is it better to play 6 singles or 4 out of 6 combo. The stakes will be 1 unit per single and 6 units on the combo. There are 7 possible outcomes (0,1,2...6 won) and we will assume that odds are the same (2.0) for all 6 games (it could be a weekend selection). So, let's look at the possible outcomes: WON SINGLE COMBO 0 -6 -6 1 -4 -6 2 -2 -6 3 money back -6 4 +2 +0.4 5 +4 +26 6 +6 +90 We can see from the above table that options 1,2,3 or 4 games won speak in favour of singles while options 5 or 6 games won are in favour of a combo. 0 remains 0 :cry Now, if we take a period of 16 weeks (I choose it deliberately for easier explanation) during which we want to bet on 96 games, we can see that no money will be lost if only once 6 games are won during the week, assuming we were playing a combo. However, my intention is not to break even and have fun playing for 16 weeks :) (assuming all other weeks had less than 4 out of 6 won because even 4 games won in any week would lead to a slight profit). I, like all of us, am aiming towards a profit so let's take a look at some other scenarios: Obviously, it will be almost impossible to lose all 96 bets but even in case of 1 or 2 won every week, even 3 (all weeks), it is again playing to break even in the best case scenario. Now, some of you might say it is better to break even or to have a small loss than to have -96 units after 16 weeks (assuming that not once in 16 weeks 4,5 or 6 games were won out of 6) but then again, I beleive we all are going towards making some money :). Therefore, let's look the best case scenario (maximum profit) in favour of singles. The best option would be to have 4 singles won every week and it would lead to the final sum of +32 units compared to +6.4 units if combo were played. However, no way all 16 weeks will be the same so let's go back to reality. I may be quite wrong (it is one of the main reasons I started this thread, to hear pros and cons) but I beleive it is quite possible to have 6 out of 6 won in 1 out of 16 weeks (I would like some statistic/math experts to calculate chances for something like that because I do not know how to do it :\). However, let's have a look at the most realistic scenario (according to me only): WEEKS GAMES 0 - 1 times 6 WON 1 - 2 X 5 WON 2 - 4 X 4 WON 3 - 8 X 3 WON 2 - 5 X 2 WON 1 - 3 X 1 WON 0 - 1 X 0 WON STRIKE RATE Like I said, I am not going to discuss any strike rate bellow 50% since it does not bring any profit. I know that left weeks column looks like there are 9 weeks while bold one has 24 but the truth is somewhere in between :). If we consider the realistic strike rate (according to me again :)) of 60.41% (did not round it up so that exactly 58 bets were won), it would result in +20 units for singles and who knows what :lol for a combo but it cannot be worse than -32 units (6 times 3 bets won and 10 times 4 bets won). The second and the last strike rate I will mention is devil's numbers strike rate (you guessed it -- 66.6666....% or 64 bets won out of 96), which brings us back to the "best case scenario" in favour of singles (+32 units or +6.4 units for combos) assuming virtually impossible 4 out of 6 won constantly during 16-week period. If only one week has 5 winners, one 3 and other 14 keep steady 4 winners (again highly unlikely IMO), the situation would be almost the same whether we played singles or combos (+32 singles, +25.6 combos). Any other distribution with this strike rate speaks in favour of combos (for example: 2 times 5 won, 2 times 3 won and 12 times 4 won brings the constant +32 units for singles but +44.8 units for combos. QUESTIONS?! 1. Could it be that if someone has 66.666% strike rate (even odds) playing combos would pay more than playing singles?! 2. Could it be that even with smaller strike rate (even smaller than 50%) and some lucky weekly distribution combos would again produce more money (or less lost) than singles?! 3. The final question is whether +32 units or more (conditions as in the given example) is easier to achieve with singles or combos: - with singles we need minimum of 66.666% strike rate - with combos we need to win 6 out of 6 + 5 out of 6 (or 4 times 5 out of 6) during any 2(4) of 16 weeks and during all other weeks a strike rate can be 0% Which of the above is more likely to happen?! I am not going to take more of your and my time (I am not lunatism :clap and I have to eat, sleep, work, ...) but I believe those are some interesting questions. I did not go into "wet dream scenarios" such as 3-4 times 6 out of 6 won but it would be something like :cow:nana. P.S. I apologize for typing mistakes and brackets (I know I use them a lot but I find it easier to write that way since english is not my mother tongue) Well, bracket again :lol. Regards to everyone and waiting for criticism/support or just a comment/opinion.

[lunatism]

Re: 6 singles or 4 out of 6?

QUESTIONS?! 1. Could it be that if someone has 66.666% strike rate (even odds) playing combos would pay more than playing singles?! 2. Could it be that even with smaller strike rate (even smaller than 50%) and some lucky weekly distribution combos would again produce more money (or less lost) than singles?! 3. The final question is whether +32 units or more (conditions as in the given example) is easier to achieve with singles or combos: - with singles we need minimum of 66.666% strike rate - with combos we need to win 6 out of 6 + 5 out of 6 (or 4 times 5 out of 6) during any 2(4) of 16 weeks and during all other weeks a strike rate can be 0% Which of the above is more likely to happen?!

hey 2good4u...back again for more? :tongue2 there are a lot of things i could say about what you've suggested - but first i wanted to know a little more about your selection process. You go into detail about your staking (single or combo) and your possible strike rates over different weeks, but your true strike rate cannot be calculated unless you establish the likelihood of you selections being correct, and so either you should do this first, or put your selection process up here so we could try and calculate that for you..... obviously taking on odds of 2.00 can produce profits, but how could you be sure that you'll be picking the "right" matches.... how do you think you'd fare if you ran the singles and combo alongside each other?