Aphobos Posted February 12, 2008 Share Posted February 12, 2008 Hi all, I'm not used to being in this forum but had an idea I wanted to try out, paper trail, so thought this the best place to pop the thread. This idea is very simple. I don't have a great knowledge of different systems so this may already be known under a different guise or name. It's basically this. On the 1-X-2 market I'll choose 3 matches where odds for all outcomes are evens or over. From these 3 matches I will place 3 patents covering all outcomes. This means that regardless I will have a return however small. My aim obviously is to get 3 out of 3 though in one patent. The patents will be weighted. One patent will be staked at twice as much as the other two and this will be the one carrying my own predictions. This is the patent I hope to get up. Failing that there is still a chance that one of the other patents can come up or even cover the overall stakes. I'll start with a bank of 200 units and see how long it lasts. Patent 1 will have a unit stake of 2 while the other 2 will have a unit stake of 1. So that 28 units overall (2x7, 1x7, 1x7) for the 21 lines. The bookie I will use for this is BetUK and odds will reflect those at the time of posting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 12, 2008 Author Share Posted February 12, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents Bet One Matches Partick v Livingston 1:6/5, X:12/5, 2:7/4 Macclesfield v Grimsby 1:31/20, X:11/5, 2:31/20 Accrington v Lincoln 1:13/10, X:11/5, 2:9/5 Patent 1 @14.00 units Partick v Livingston 1 Macclesfield v Grimsby X Accrington v Lincoln 2 Patent 2 @7.00 units Partick v Livingston X Macclesfield v Grimsby 2 Accrington v Lincoln X Patent 3 @7.00 units Partick v Livingston 2 Macclesfield v Grimsby 1 Accrington v Lincoln 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted February 12, 2008 Share Posted February 12, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents Interesting to see how this goes. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted February 12, 2008 Share Posted February 12, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents Interesting to see how this goes. Good luck. ditto :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 13, 2008 Author Share Posted February 13, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents Cheers guys. As usual it will probably go terribly but I'll give it a pop anyway. Interetingly I was sat flicking through yesterday's paper, Daily Record, this morning and I noticed that the the three games I took on they tipped correctly 100%. I should maybe use their predictions instead of my own. :) Bet One- Results Start Balance: 200.00u Profit/Loss: -1.83 End Balance: 198.17 Matches Partick 1:1 Livingston 1:6/5, X:12/5, 2:7/4 Macclesfield 1:2 Grimsby 1:31/20, X:11/5, 2:31/20 Accrington 0:3 Lincoln 1:13/10, X:11/5, 2:9/5 Patent 1 -8.40 units Partick v Livingston 1 Macclesfield v Grimsby X Accrington v Lincoln 2 Patent 2 +13.57 units Partick v Livingston X Macclesfield v Grimsby 2 Accrington v Lincoln X Patent 3 -7.00 units Partick v Livingston 2 Macclesfield v Grimsby 1 Accrington v Lincoln 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 13, 2008 Author Share Posted February 13, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents Bet Two Matches Zenit v Villarreal 1:7/4, X:21/10, 2:7/5 Anderlecht v Bordeaux 1:6/4, X:21/10, 2:33/20 Chesterfield v Peterborough 1:31/20, X:11/5, 2:31/20 Patent 1 @14.00 units Zenit v Villarreal X Anderlecht v Bordeaux 2 Chesterfield v Peterborough 2 Patent 2 @7.00 units Zenit v Villarreal 1 Anderlecht v Bordeaux X Chesterfield v Peterborough X Patent 3 @7.00 units Zenit v Villarreal 2 Anderlecht v Bordeaux 1 Chesterfield v Peterborough 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted February 13, 2008 Share Posted February 13, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents I like this idea and am currently working on this weekends games. Do you think it might be more profitable to select games where the lowest outcome of a game is odds of 2.5? Good luck for tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 13, 2008 Author Share Posted February 13, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents That's possible mate but to be honest I haven't really mucked about with the odds. Ultimately more than the odds I think it's more important that you get one of the patents up, preferably patent 1, every now and again. I'll have to try out some scenarios and see how often a winning patent would be required. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted February 13, 2008 Share Posted February 13, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents Nasty 90th minute winner for Anderlecht there. Unlucky. I trialled your system on three matches with the largest odds. They were, Chesterfield v Peterboro AEK v Getafe Anderlect v Bordeaux I got lucky with a double for my double stake. As i said, i like this idea, but think that the biggest odds should be chosen each time. Good Luck:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 14, 2008 Author Share Posted February 14, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents I'm glad you got a profit from your own games. :ok I think it does have potential but like most things does depend mostly on the selections, though here you could still make a constant profit through pure luck. Maybe going in blindly would be a better option for me. Crap day but there will be many of these no doubt. I actually took Zenit in my GH thread so somewhere yesterday I went a bit Bet Two- Results Start Balance: 198.17 (200.00u) Profit/Loss: -12.80 (-14.63) End Balance: 185.37 Matches Zenit 1:0 Villarreal 1:7/4, X:21/10, 2:7/5 Anderlecht 1:2 Bordeaux 1:6/4, X:21/10, 2:33/20 Chesterfield 1:2 Peterborough 1:31/20, X:11/5, 2:31/20 Patent 1 -8.90 units Zenit v Villarreal X Anderlecht v Bordeaux 2 Chesterfield v Peterborough 2 Patent 2 -2.20 units Zenit v Villarreal 1 Anderlecht v Bordeaux X Chesterfield v Peterborough X Patent 3 -1.70 units Zenit v Villarreal 2 Anderlecht v Bordeaux 1 Chesterfield v Peterborough 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 14, 2008 Author Share Posted February 14, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents As barrhead73 said probably the better balanced the odds the better. Today though I'm forced into taking on two games where the odds are shorter on the away side. It can't be helped but they do at least meet the minimal requirement of evens or above. Bet Three Matches Bolton v Atletico 1:7/4, X:21/10, 2:7/5 Rosenborg v Fiorentina 1:12/5, X:9/4, 2:1/1 Zurich v Hamburg 1:13/5, X:21/10, 2:1/1 Patent 1 @14.00 units Bolton v Atletico X Rosenborg v Fiorentina 1 Zurich v Hamburg 2 Patent 2 @7.00 units Bolton v Atletico 2 Rosenborg v Fiorentina X Zurich v Hamburg X Patent 3 @7.00 units Bolton v Atletico 1 Rosenborg v Fiorentina 2 Zurich v Hamburg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 15, 2008 Author Share Posted February 15, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents Bet Three- Results Start Balance: 185.37 (200.00u) Profit/Loss: -10.40 (-25.03) End Balance: 174.97 Matches Bolton 1:0 Atletico 1:7/4, X:21/10, 2:7/5 Rosenborg 0:1 Fiorentina 1:12/5, X:9/4, 2:1/1 Zurich 1:3 Hamburg 1:13/5, X:21/10, 2:1/1 Patent 1 -10.00 units Bolton v Atletico X Rosenborg v Fiorentina 1 Zurich v Hamburg 2 Patent 2 -7.00 units Bolton v Atletico 2 Rosenborg v Fiorentina X Zurich v Hamburg X Patent 3 +6.60 units Bolton v Atletico 1 Rosenborg v Fiorentina 2 Zurich v Hamburg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted February 15, 2008 Share Posted February 15, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents I think this probably highlights the needs for longer odds games to be selected. The three longest odds games i have found for this weekend are, 1--------------X2Espanol v Seville2.53.42.7Genoa v Sampa2.7532.7Reggina v Udinese2.732.75 Odds are all with B365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 15, 2008 Author Share Posted February 15, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents I think this probably highlights the needs for longer odds games to be selected. Yes I think you are spot on there mate- I should have listened sooner. ;) I've already picked out today's but as of tomorrow I'll start doing that. I should have taken on the Belgian game tonight instead of the Den Bosch. Even if it takes matches over a few days I'll look for more equal odds. By the way please feel free to post your own in here if you want. My predictions haven't been great so the more posted the more chance of success. :ok Bet Four Matches Emmen v Den Bosch 1:33/20, X:9/4, 2:27/20 Stormvogels/Telstar v Helmond 1:6/4, X:11/5, 2:6/4 TOP Oss v Zwolle 1:8/5, X:11/5, 2:7/5 Patent 1 @14.00 units Emmen v Den Bosch 2 Stormvogels/Telstar v Helmond 1 TOP Oss v Zwolle 2 Patent 2 @7.00 units Emmen v Den Bosch X Stormvogels/Telstar v Helmond X TOP Oss v Zwolle X Patent 3 @7.00 units Emmen v Den Bosch 1 Stormvogels/Telstar v Helmond 2 TOP Oss v Zwolle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 15, 2008 Author Share Posted February 15, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents At last a winner, I should get out now while the going is good. :cow:cow I've made a bit of an arse of my spreadsheet though so will have to recaculate all the outcomes again and recheck them. Tonight though was definitely a +63.73 profit so deinfitely in profit so far. It's too late to muck about with the spreadsheet so I'll do it tomorrow. Matches Emmen v Den Bosch 1:33/20, X:9/4, 2:27/20 Stormvogels/Telstar v Helmond 1:6/4, X:11/5, 2:6/4 TOP Oss v Zwolle 1:8/5, X:11/5, 2:7/5 Patent 1 +77.73 units Emmen v Den Bosch 2 Stormvogels/Telstar v Helmond 1 TOP Oss v Zwolle 2 Patent 2 -7.00 units Emmen v Den Bosch X Stormvogels/Telstar v Helmond X TOP Oss v Zwolle X Patent 3 -7.00 units Emmen v Den Bosch 1 Stormvogels/Telstar v Helmond 2 TOP Oss v Zwolle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 15, 2008 Author Share Posted February 15, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents I think I've fixed it now but I'll recheck tomorrow: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 16, 2008 Author Share Posted February 16, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents Bet Five Matches Metz v Valenciennes 1:9/5, X:19/10, 2:6/4 Karlsruhe v Bayer Leverkusen 1:33/20, X:11/5, 2:29/20 Espanyol v Sevilla 1:8/5, X:11/5, 2:6/4 Patent 1 @14.00 units Metz v Valenciennes X Karlsruhe v Bayer Leverkusen X Espanyol v Sevilla 1 Patent 2 @7.00 units Metz v Valenciennes 2 Karlsruhe v Bayer Leverkusen 2 Espanyol v Sevilla X Patent 3 @7.00 units Metz v Valenciennes 1 Karlsruhe v Bayer Leverkusen 1 Espanyol v Sevilla 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted February 16, 2008 Share Posted February 16, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 17, 2008 Author Share Posted February 17, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents No problem mate, it's good to have someone else's results in here too. Best of luck with the 2 games today. :ok I've made a front bottom of the calcs but now seem to have them sorted. So after every block of 7 bets I'll post the table. Bet Five- Results Start Balance: 210.55 (200.00u) Profit/Loss: -9.30 (+1.25) End Balance: 201.25 Matches Metz 2:1 Valenciennes 1:9/5, X:19/10, 2:6/4 Karlsruhe 2:2 Bayer Leverkusen 1:33/20, X:11/5,2:29/20 Espanyol 2:4 Sevilla 1:8/5, X:11/5, 2:6/4 Patent 1 -7.60 units Metz v Valenciennes X Karlsruhe v Bayer Leverkusen X Espanyol v Sevilla 1 Patent 2 -7.00 units Metz v Valenciennes 2 Karlsruhe v Bayer Leverkusen 2 Espanyol v Sevilla X Patent 3 +5.30 units Metz v Valenciennes 1 Karlsruhe v Bayer Leverkusen 1 Espanyol v Sevilla 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 17, 2008 Author Share Posted February 17, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents Bet Six Matches Monaco v Bordeaux 1:7/5, X:19/10, 2:39/20 Ankaragucu v Trabzonspor 1:8/5, X:11/5, 2:6/4 Kick. Offenbach v Aachen 1:7/5, X:11/5, 2:8/5 Patent 1 @14.00 units Monaco v Bordeaux 2 Ankaragucu v Trabzonspor X Kick. Offenbach v Aachen X Patent 2 @7.00 units Monaco v Bordeaux X Ankaragucu v Trabzonspor 2 Kick. Offenbach v Aachen 2 Patent 3 @7.00 units Monaco v Bordeaux 1 Ankaragucu v Trabzonspor 1 Kick. Offenbach v Aachen 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted February 17, 2008 Share Posted February 17, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents Just a double and a single for me this weekend Results after 2 bets PatentsStaked56Returns45.8Profit/Loss-10.2ROI-18.2% I think it will be interesting to see how my value bets go against your selections. Hopefully we can both make some profit.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted February 17, 2008 Share Posted February 17, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 17, 2008 Author Share Posted February 17, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents Hopefully one of us will make profit, though both would be better. Over the course we'll hopefully get a few patents up and if we do then that should go some way to getting the profit we are after. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 17, 2008 Author Share Posted February 17, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents Bet Six- Results Start Balance: 201.25 (200.00u) Profit/Loss: +5.68(+6.93) End Balance: 206.93 Matches Monaco 0:6 Bordeaux 1:7/5, X:19/10, 2:39/20 Ankaragucu 0:2 Trabzonspor 1:8/5, X:11/5, 2:6/4 Kick. Offenbach 2:2 Aachen 1:7/5, X:11/5, 2:8/5 Patent 1 +17.18 units Monaco v Bordeaux 2 Ankaragucu v Trabzonspor X Kick. Offenbach v Aachen X Patent 2 -4.50 units Monaco v Bordeaux X Ankaragucu v Trabzonspor 2 Kick. Offenbach v Aachen 2 Patent 3 -7.00 units Monaco v Bordeaux 1 Ankaragucu v Trabzonspor 1 Kick. Offenbach v Aachen 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 18, 2008 Author Share Posted February 18, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents Bet Seven Matches Bristol C. v Crystal Palace 1:11/10, X:11/5, 2:21/10 U.Leiria v Belenenses 1:39/20, X:19/10, 2:7/5 Slovan Liberec v Banik Ostrava 1:6/4, X:7/4, 2:2/1 Patent 1 @14.00 units Bristol C. v Crystal Palace X U.Leiria v Belenenses X Slovan Liberec v Banik Ostrava 1 Patent 2 @7.00 units Bristol C. v Crystal Palace 1 U.Leiria v Belenenses 2 Slovan Liberec v Banik Ostrava X Patent 3 @7.00 units Bristol C. v Crystal Palace 2 U.Leiria v Belenenses 1 Slovan Liberec v Banik Ostrava 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 19, 2008 Author Share Posted February 19, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents Bet Seven- Results Start Balance: 206.93 (200.00u) Profit/Loss: -9.85 (-2.92) End Balance: 197.08 Matches Bristol C. 1:1 Crystal Palace 1:11/10, X:11/5, 2:21/10 U.Leiria 0:2 Belenenses 1:39/20, X:19/10, 2:7/5 Slovan Liberec 1:1 Banik Ostrava 1:6/4, X:7/4, 2:2/1 Patent 1 -7.60 units Bristol C. v Crystal Palace X U.Leiria v Belenenses X Slovan Liberec v Banik Ostrava 1 Patent 2 +4.75 units Bristol C. v Crystal Palace 1 U.Leiria v Belenenses 2 Slovan Liberec v Banik Ostrava X Patent 3 -7.00 units Bristol C. v Crystal Palace 2 U.Leiria v Belenenses 1 Slovan Liberec v Banik Ostrava 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 19, 2008 Author Share Posted February 19, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents After 20 bets I'll have another look at it. At the moment I'm getting the most winners in patent 1 (7/15) which is what I hoped and the least winners from patent 2 (3/15) which is not what I hoped. It might be more beneficial to drop one of the patents but then the risk is that it could be a missed winner. I'll review it though after said bets. Bet Eight Matches Liverpool v Inter Milan 1:6/4, X:2/1, 2:17/10 Southampton v Plymouth 1:6/5, X:11/5, 2:2/1 Roma v Real Madrid 1:7/5, X:21/10, 2:7/4 Patent 1 @14.00 units Liverpool v Inter Milan 1 Southampton v Plymouth X Roma v Real Madrid 1 Patent 2 @7.00 units Liverpool v Inter Milan X Southampton v Plymouth 1 Roma v Real Madrid X Patent 3 @7.00 units Liverpool v Inter Milan 2 Southampton v Plymouth 2 Roma v Real Madrid 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted February 19, 2008 Share Posted February 19, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents Good double double Del. :clap I'm hoping Fenerbache and Seville can play out a draw tomorrow to give me my first treble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted February 20, 2008 Share Posted February 20, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted February 20, 2008 Author Share Posted February 20, 2008 Re: Full Cover Patents Good double double Del. :clap I'm hoping Fenerbache and Seville can play out a draw tomorrow to give me my first treble. Cheers mate. Not enough to stop another loss but managable. I hope that result goes for you tonight and get you the full whack. :ok Bet Eight- Results Start Balance: 197.08 (200.00u) Profit/Loss: -3.20 (-6.12) End Balance: 193.88 Matches Liverpool 2:0 Inter Milan 1:6/4, X:2/1, 2:17/10 Southampton 0:2 Plymouth 1:6/5, X:11/5, 2:2/1 Roma 2:1 Real Madrid 1:7/5, X:21/10, 2:7/4 Patent 1 +7.80 units Liverpool v Inter Milan 1 Southampton v Plymouth X Roma v Real Madrid 1 Patent 2 -7.00 units Liverpool v Inter Milan X Southampton v Plymouth 1 Roma v Real Madrid X Patent 3 -4.00 units Liverpool v Inter Milan 2 Southampton v Plymouth 2 Roma v Real Madrid 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.