Rugby Union Super 14 Week One

[AJ]

Is it really that time of year already ? Super 14 kicks off this weekend, it

	Crusaders	3.25	3.25	3.3
	Blues	4	5	4.3
	Bulls	6.5	6.5	5.1
	Hurricanes	10	10	5.1
	Chiefs	7.5	10	7.8
	Natal Sharks	10	11	9.2
	NSW Waratahs	15	10	7.8
	Brumbies	21	17	9.2
	Western Force	29	23	17.5
	Stormers	41	41	23
	Cheetahs	51	51	15.5
	Highlanders	81	101	42
	Queensland Reds	101	81	42
	Lions	126	151	38
Place terms		2 1/2	2 1/2

Apart from the obvious point that I can back the lions at 151 on blueSq and lay them off on Betfair at 38s, I'd say the prices are fairly decent. I think this will be the Blues year, the addition of Nick Evens is the final part of the jigsaw.

[AJ]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One Updated Prices

Friday 15 February 2008	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">BPP
Crusaders v Brumbies (06:35GMT)	1.16	34.00	6.60	104%	Details »
Hide « Crusaders v Brumbies
Queensland Reds v Highlanders (09:05GMT)	1.50	30.00	2.90	104%	Details »
Hide « Queensland Reds v Highlanders
Natal Sharks v Western Force (17:10GMT)	1.40	26.00	3.50	104%	Details »
Hide « Natal Sharks v Western Force
Saturday 16 February 2008	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">BPP
Blues v Chiefs (06:35GMT)	1.51	25.00	3.00	104%	Details »
Hide « Blues v Chiefs
NSW Waratahs v Hurricanes (08:40GMT)	1.57	26.00	2.64	105%	Details »
Hide « NSW Waratahs v Hurricanes
Stormers v Bulls (15:00GMT)	2.60	24.00	1.57	106%	Details »
Hide « Stormers v Bulls
Cheetahs v Lions (17:05GMT)	1.67	23.00	2.37	106%	Details »

[AJ]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One Going to run a series of picks here, even 10pt singles, with a 100pt starting bank. Be interesting how the ELVs in force this season impact the games, in theory it should favour teams like the Blues that play an open attacking game and disadvantage teams like Queensland that play brutal dull "England" style games as there should be less pens awarded. For week one, I'm going for 5 homes and two aways. The Crusaders and Queensland should see off what look to be pretty woeful Brumbies and Highlanders teams. The Brumbies have lost several top players to retirement and look a shadow of themselves, the Highalnders always struggle to attract good players because no one wants to live in Otago. I'm tipping the force as my surprise team this season, they've had two years in the comp now, getting better each time. I think they may finish the top or second top Aussie team. I'm hopful they can get an away win in Natal against the Sharks

[Citizen Kane]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One I'll wait and see how the Force shape up in their opening games after the in camp ruckus and agree with the rest of AJ's comments. I'll kick off with 100pt bank as well to keep it simple: 5pt singles all odds NZTab Crusaders -14.5 @ 1.87 Reds @ 1.50 Chiefs Top4 @ 2.25 Pressed for time as usual. I'll try and put up a decent writeup on Saturday.

[-Loki-]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One Probably will take the under in the Crusaders game. The weather up there look quite wet. Not mention already depleted brumbies team that may have trouble scoring.

[blackcrow]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One Crusaders -17.5 Loss of Mortlock, Gregan and Larkham is massive for the Brumbies and one wonders how they will be able to stop the Crusaders, especially with Carter showing the way, have a decisive class edge. Carter should have too much nous against his inexperienced halves while McCaw should be able to drive the Crusaders pack into Brumby territory quite easily

[AJ]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One Not part of my system, but I've had a small wager on the Crusaders -14.5pts at 1.7 tonight. Good luck to all, hope we have a very profitable year

[AJ]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One 34 - 3 for the Crusaders, it could have been more if the weather had been better. A few balls were dropped first half in the wet. The Brumbies were truely awful, Larkin and Gregan are massive loses. Like the new laws, the game was faster, ball in play more. Lot less pens. Seemed to suit the Crusaders very well. Nice to start off with the winner :ok anyone know what the weather is like in Brisbane just now ? I know they've had heavy rain over the last couple of days, might look at the unders market if it's wet.

[blackcrow]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One Crusaders -17.5 :)

[Mr Wall]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One

Sport	Rugby
Event	Super 14's
Selection	Sharks -10 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	15/02/2008
Bookmaker/Price	>William Hill @ 1.90 (Back)
Reasoning	Sharks vs Western Force Always hate predicting first game of the season as they can often be a lottery but scanning the 2 line ups I find it hard to imagine anything but a Sharks win, especially at home. They have been hit by losses of influential players to europe (achmit, montgomery and butch james) but they are still much teh same team that were inches from winning the whole thing last season and have a pack to rival most others. There are some very good players in the Force team, especially in the backline where the unbelievably talented and versatile Giteau stars so it will be no walkover. Bit harmony is not what it should be with Henjak breaking Sares jaw in a bar brawl... always good preperation! A combination of a relatively settled side, a darned good pack and home advantage should see the Sharks take this by more than 2 scores, so backing them to beat the handicap at -10

[AJ]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One Reds make it home 22 - 16 thanks to some very helpful reffing. I was more impressed by the Highlanders than I expected. They might be worth backing at home as the season progresses. Sharks win against the force 17-10 to give me my first loss for the season. It was always a long shot, but they did run them close and showed some good play. Looking forward to tonights games

[AJ]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One Blues vs Chiefs Local derby match up to start the season, the Blues have named 9 All blacks in their starting line up, and Nick Evans has looked good preseason. Weather in Auckland is fine just now, and I think this favours the Blues with their fast running game. This is the Blues year, I expect a comfortable bonus point home win, but might change my mind about margin if it starts raining later. Home win regardless. NSW Warratahs vs 'Caines Nothing I've seen of the 'tahs in preseason has impressed me that much. They'll most likely sneak home tonight, but by a very narrow margin. 1.8 for the 'caines +5.5 doesn't look bad, depends on the weather again. Narrow Home win. Don't know much about the south africans teams this stage of the season, and i'm not staying up to watch the games either. So for the purposes of my 10 pts per game system, i'm going with the favs in both games.

[litmanen88]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One Can you post the weather for Eden Park later tonight. I will probably be getting up for 6am for this one. I have sided with the unders because of the expected showers but may go heavier on the unders if it rains as I hope.

[rod_steel]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One YTD (0-0-0) First bet of the season for me. All flat stakes Chiefs +6.5 over Blues good luck

[Citizen Kane]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One

5pt singles all odds NZTab Crusaders -14.5 @ 1.87 Reds @ 1.50 Chiefs Top4 @ 2.25

2/2 a good start for the season. Brumbies were poor as I thought they may be and although I thought the Reds would be better than the Highlanders the NZ team did alright and performed better than I expected. Tempted to have a go at a couple of other matches this weekend but will hold off and just see how the other teams front up to the new season and ELV's.

I would expect the home teams to win the rest of the games although not as confident on the Stormers/Bulls game. Can't see a lot of value in the odds except for Stormers but not confident to back them. Should get a good insight into all teams chances after this weekend as most of the matchups are interesting.

Good luck to all those with bets on for the rest of round 1.

Cheers

CK

[Mr Wall]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One

Sport	Rugby
Event	Super 14's
Selection	Sharks -10 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	15/02/2008
Bookmaker/Price	>William Hill @ 1.90 (Back)
Reasoning	Sharks vs Western Force Always hate predicting first game of the season as they can often be a lottery but scanning the 2 line ups I find it hard to imagine anything but a Sharks win, especially at home. They have been hit by losses of influential players to europe (achmit, montgomery and butch james) but they are still much teh same team that were inches from winning the whole thing last season and have a pack to rival most others. There are some very good players in the Force team, especially in the backline where the unbelievably talented and versatile Giteau stars so it will be no walkover. Bit harmony is not what it should be with Henjak breaking Sares jaw in a bar brawl... always good preperation! A combination of a relatively settled side, a darned good pack and home advantage should see the Sharks take this by more than 2 scores, so backing them to beat the handicap at -10

Well that didn't work but thankfully I put a lot more on my Sharks and Scarlets double so am still up. Need to be more selective with my handicap betting methinks

[blackcrow]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One Blues over 46.5 Both sides have been hit by the loss of key players but more commonly in the forwards rather than the backs. The Blues have added Evans in midfield to really give it some creativity and this should present alot of opportunties to the flyers in the centres and the wings. The Chiefs are a team that really plays well against the Blues having won on the last 2 occasions and they too have some very good players in the backline who have quite a bit of sevens experience. If both set of coaches are willing to use their respective backlines, then this should be a try fest.

[blackcrow]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One Waratahs over 44.5 You would expect both teams to hit each other pretty hard in the forwards early on, as they both boast some big players and overall, monster packs. Once they have finished softening each other up, look to both sides to spread the ball. Waratahs coach McKenzie knows that he is under presuure in his last season of his contract to get the results required so look to him to poen the game up for his team. The Hurricanes like the Waratahs have some good quality backs there, so once the back rows are finished, look to each to exploit any tiredness around the rucks. With the new rules looking to speed the game up, both teams will look to play on pretty quickly, so these forwards might start to feel the pinch later on. While the Hurricanes have a good record against the Waratahs, the 'tahs have the personnel to win this games if their very intensive training sessions are anything to go by. Look to points being scored in the last quarter of the game to send it over.

[AJ]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One Hey Blackcrow, what's the weather like in Sydney ? Is it dry ?

[AJ]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One Have taken the Blues -7.5pts @ 2.0 on Betfair. It's a great night, hasn't rained for a couple of hours. Their running game should prevail

[AJ]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One

Have taken the Blues -7.5pts @ 2.0 on Betfair. It's a great night, hasn't rained for a couple of hours. Their running game should prevail

Left it late, but Blues romp home by 32 -14, decided to take the 'Caines on the handicap +5.5 at 1.9 Will do an update on in the morning after the two matches in the republic

[-Loki-]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One Canes down early, need a strong 2nd Half.

[AJ]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One 5 from 7 first week 70pts staked, Return 73.1pts Not a great week, but profit never the less

[blackcrow]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One Blues over 46.5 :cryMiss out by one point Waratahs over 44.5 :$ Never a chance Alot of unders this weekend yet the rule changes were designed to speed things up and promote more scoring :eyes

[xxdaxxbombxx]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week One Hung back this week as I wanted to stay away from the unknowns with the new rules and watch the games with no bias... One thing is that the rule changes are to promote more tries, the flip side of this is that there is less penalty goals scored, so not necessarily more points on the board... The Bench players are more important with the increase in pace and less stoppages in the game, teams with a lack of depth will struggle more than they would have in previous years... Teams that performed above my expectations this week, Highlanders (even though they lost they will win some games this year) & Crusaders (considering the conditions)... Teams that disapointed, Brumbies (loss of key players had a big impact), Chiefs (total lack of fitness, & were completely run off their feet after 50 minutes, good team to back to be winning at half time then lose), Hurricanes, ( kept giving the ball away, still will be hard to beat at home) Did not see the african games unfortunately