Mercedes-Benz Championship 3rd-6th Jan

[Fat Jack]

Re: Mercedes-Benz Championship 3rd-6th Jan 20-30 mph winds are forecast through to Saturday, so favouring players who have experienced Kapalua in these conditions. First impressions are keeping singh on your side. Claims he's as fit as ever, it's a poor field and Vijay rarely goes more than a couple of days without swinging a golf club so no early season rustiness to remove. His pro-am team came second to Woody Austin yesterday. Others I fancy are Leonard and Verplank, both very good in the wind, although Verplank's lack of distance may be too much for him here. Will post more later

[Fat Jack]

Re: Mercedes-Benz Championship 3rd-6th Jan Although short hitters can still compete here (notably Furyk), a look at the top 10s of the last few years shows the bombers dominating. Also expect half the field to be very rusty after long lay offs (11 of the 31 in the field haven't played for at least 10 weeks). Debutants do pretty well, but you would expect that with generally about 40% of the field seeing the course each year for the first time. There are 14 first-timers this year, but with the last debutant winner being Garcia back in 2002, only the better players can be expected to finish well on their first time here. It's been possible to come back from a poor first round to win (Appleby 8 shots back after 18 holes 3 years ago), but since the course has been lengthened for the 06 staging the winner has been no more than two shots off the first round lead (06 winner: Appleby, 71 v 69 1st rd lead. 07: Singh, 69 share of 1st rd lead) This is due to a large extent the stronger than usual winds, and with strong winds forecast to last well into Saturday, this years event looks like following a similar pattern to the last two years. I will be very suprised if the winner is more than two shots off the lead before the start of round 2. I'll have Singh outright to start with, and may add some more after 1 round. Also a small interest on Verplank as the wind will not pose him too many problems despite his short hitting. Boo Weekley is still nursing injuries to his left shoulder and arm after falling off a ladder a few weeks ago. Verplank had surgery on a finger last month but looks to have made a full recovery. Outright 1pt win Singh @ 11/2 most layers 0.5pt ew Verplank @ 28/1 Tote, Coral 18 Holes - 1st Rd Singh v Goydos This does seem very obvious but there is a bit of value with Singh in this match with the 1/2 on offer. I make Singh 2/5 tops as his recent and course form are exemplary. He hasn't played a competitve round for 8 weeks, but Goydos hasn't played an event for 18 weeks. Goydos has managed a best of 27th since he won the Sony last year, hasn't played here and first timers do not have good records. Not a 10 pointer but it is a complete mismatch. 8pts @ 1/2 Ladbrokes, Stan James, Betterbet Stricker v Campbell These two have played 18 rounds in 6 events they have teed up together over the past 6 months, and it's no surprise that Stricker comes out on top. 15 wins for Stricker, with 3 ties show just how good he's been. Chad Campbell is only here becuase of a late season flurish to win the viking Classic. Both shortish hitters, I expect Stricker's superior putting to keep him on top today. Add in Campbell's poor play here last year and the 4/5 is worth taking. 4pts Stricker @ 4/5 Betfred Snedeker v Flesch Surprised to see 1.95 for Snedeker. Unlike most of he field he's kept his eye in with a trip down under last month, highlighted by a very good second place finish at the Oz Open on a testing course. It was only becuase he called a penalty stroke on himself in the final round that he missed out on a play off by one shot to surprise winner Criag Parry. As for Flesch I can't see his putting being up to much on tricky windswept greens after a 10 week lay off. The 8/11 for Snedeker is what I would expect to see so I'll take the 19/20. 4pts Snedeker @ 19/20 sportingBet Spreads - 10/3 18 Holers - 1st Rd For reasons above I have Singh with just over a 2.5 shot advantage over Goydos - this equates to paying 13 or 14 on the 10/3 18 holers. The 11 with Spreadfair is worth a very small interest to start the year off. Again, I have Stricker around 2 shots better off, so around 7-10, maybe even 8-11. The 7 offered at SPEX without commission is an excellent price. I don't want to go overboard as Stricker hasn't played for 16 weeks, but having said that Campbell hasn't played for 12, so they are likely to be as rusty as each other. If Stricker hasn't lost much of his form that took him into the world's top 5 he will be too good even for an improved Campbell. As with the fixed odds there is a mistake with Snedeker's price. I was expecting 3-6, so the 2-5 with two firms I'll leave. However, SPEX's offer of 4 is far too tempting to pass up. Singh/Goydos 1pt buy @ 11 Spreadfair Stricker/Campbell 0.5pt buy @ 7 SPEX Snedeker/Flesch 1pt buy @ 4 SPEX