jeno Posted December 28, 2007 Share Posted December 28, 2007 Hello everyone, Been keenly watching and reading threads for the past few months and have found it quite fascinating. Yes this is my first post and I very much doubt my last. I have watched the portuguese leagues and italian leagues with interest as there does seem to be a pattern, if I can call it that. The portuguese league is the lowest scoring league in europe at 2.21 goals a game so far this season and the Italian has the most drawn results in europe at 37%. The past 2 months or so I have been watching these leagues and created a spreadsheet for the portuguese league, as of yet not for the Italian, and have been gaining a nice profit. On the spreadsheet what I have done is tried to predict the correct scores. Basically putting 5 points on these scores 0-0, 1-0, 0-1,1-1, 2-0, 0-2, 2-1, 1-2. Therefore for every game you are staking 40 points. For the Italian league I propose a similar method to these using the CS of 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2 so possibly staking 15 pts. Any questions, tips would be greatly appreciated, my IT skills are quite basic and would like advise on how I could present these results. Thankfully there is time to tweek the system as the portuguese league does not begin till 6th Jan and Italian a week later. Thank you so much, eagerly awaiting comments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumyat Posted December 28, 2007 Share Posted December 28, 2007 Re: Portuguese CS + Italian Draws >>>For the Italian league I propose a similar method to these using the CS of 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2 Wouldn't it be better value, not to mention easier, just to back the straight draw. The dutched CS odds on these scores are probably going to be a lower price than the draw odds - and you are not going to be happy if it's a 3-3 or a Chelsea 4-4! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeno Posted December 28, 2007 Author Share Posted December 28, 2007 Re: Portuguese CS + Italian Draws As said open to suggestions could do that aswell backing the straight draw, would make sense to be fair usually quite gd odds for straight draw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeno Posted December 28, 2007 Author Share Posted December 28, 2007 Re: Portuguese CS + Italian Draws Guys, does anyone if there is a site you can see past odds for correct scores? want to try and back test this if i can? Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panxoman Posted December 28, 2007 Share Posted December 28, 2007 Re: Portuguese CS + Italian Draws try http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 28, 2007 Share Posted December 28, 2007 Re: Portuguese CS + Italian Draws no they don't do CS prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panxoman Posted December 28, 2007 Share Posted December 28, 2007 Re: Portuguese CS + Italian Draws ups sorry. I hadn't read the whole question Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tommy_de1st Posted December 28, 2007 Share Posted December 28, 2007 Re: Portuguese CS + Italian Draws Hi guys, appreciate that you mention that subject, i`m talking about draws. I bet on draws for a few years now and recently thought to put money on a correct score but only 0:0 and 1:1. 3:3 and 4:4 are very rarely and even 2:2 are not very often. What I do is i choose a few teams from leagues (as I call them under leagues such as french, italian, portugese, russian)and bet on them progressivly starting from 1*unit and if not successful then 2*units etc. If you`re getting experienced you know what team to bet on ;) Best website for me where you can find all past results and odds is: http://www.betexplorer.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeno Posted December 31, 2007 Author Share Posted December 31, 2007 Re: Portuguese CS + Italian Draws Been bored at work managed to do some research. Based on past results for this season so far in the portuguese league 77% of the results were as i said at the beginning of this thread below the 2-1 scoreline. Also had we done the Italian draws at £10 each based on this season alone we would have made a profit of £89.75. This is getting excited about the prospects for the 2nd half of the season Does anyone know a site which can immediately download the matches for various leagues straight onto a spreadsheet and possibly the odds as this wld take some time doing it manually. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeno Posted January 3, 2008 Author Share Posted January 3, 2008 Re: Portuguese CS + Italian Draws Am not using real money for this but will assume am puttin £10 on each score DateMatch0-0P.Pr1-0P.Pr0-1P.Pr1-1P.Pr2-0P.Pr0-2P.Pr2-1P.Pr1-2P.PrLiabilityResultReceivedP/L04/01/2008Academica v Braga8.80£88.008.40£84.007.60£76.006.60£66.0020.00£200.0012.50£125.0014.00£140.0011.50£115.00£80.00 All odds are via betfair starting bank is £1000 Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCtips Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 Re: Portuguese CS + Italian Draws Hello everyone, Been keenly watching and reading threads for the past few months and have found it quite fascinating. Yes this is my first post and I very much doubt my last. I have watched the portuguese leagues and italian leagues with interest as there does seem to be a pattern, if I can call it that. The portuguese league is the lowest scoring league in europe at 2.21 goals a game so far this season and the Italian has the most drawn results in europe at 37%. The past 2 months or so I have been watching these leagues and created a spreadsheet for the portuguese league, as of yet not for the Italian, and have been gaining a nice profit. On the spreadsheet what I have done is tried to predict the correct scores. Basically putting 5 points on these scores 0-0, 1-0, 0-1,1-1, 2-0, 0-2, 2-1, 1-2. Therefore for every game you are staking 40 points. For the Italian league I propose a similar method to these using the CS of 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2 so possibly staking 15 pts. Any questions, tips would be greatly appreciated, my IT skills are quite basic and would like advise on how I could present these results. Thankfully there is time to tweek the system as the portuguese league does not begin till 6th Jan and Italian a week later. Thank you so much, eagerly awaiting comments Hi Jeno. Nice post and good point for both leagues IMO. The Portuguese League has an average of 55 to 60% of "unders" every season. So, your approach is a valid one if you can find value (remember that the bookies also know this and set the odds to their advantage...). Regarding the Italian league you also have a valid point. My system in Italy is to select the 3 or 4 games that every week seem to me like most likely to draw (knowing that out of every 10 games, 3.7 will end up in a draw). What I also noticed lately is that you start getting odds bellow 3.00 for a draw in Italy...but it is still a profiable way of making money IMO. Good luck with your testing. :cheers JC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeno Posted January 3, 2008 Author Share Posted January 3, 2008 Re: Portuguese CS + Italian Draws If betfair doesnt put up CS odds is there any places that give good odds for these? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCtips Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 Re: Portuguese CS + Italian Draws If betfair doesnt put up CS odds is there any places that give good odds for these? For CS bets I like bet365 but other bookies offer it as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeno Posted January 4, 2008 Author Share Posted January 4, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeno Posted January 7, 2008 Author Share Posted January 7, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeno Posted January 8, 2008 Author Share Posted January 8, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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