Portuguese CS + Italian Draws

[jeno]

Hello everyone, Been keenly watching and reading threads for the past few months and have found it quite fascinating. Yes this is my first post and I very much doubt my last. I have watched the portuguese leagues and italian leagues with interest as there does seem to be a pattern, if I can call it that. The portuguese league is the lowest scoring league in europe at 2.21 goals a game so far this season and the Italian has the most drawn results in europe at 37%. The past 2 months or so I have been watching these leagues and created a spreadsheet for the portuguese league, as of yet not for the Italian, and have been gaining a nice profit. On the spreadsheet what I have done is tried to predict the correct scores. Basically putting 5 points on these scores 0-0, 1-0, 0-1,1-1, 2-0, 0-2, 2-1, 1-2. Therefore for every game you are staking 40 points. For the Italian league I propose a similar method to these using the CS of 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2 so possibly staking 15 pts. Any questions, tips would be greatly appreciated, my IT skills are quite basic and would like advise on how I could present these results. Thankfully there is time to tweek the system as the portuguese league does not begin till 6th Jan and Italian a week later. Thank you so much, eagerly awaiting comments

[Dumyat]

Re: Portuguese CS + Italian Draws >>>For the Italian league I propose a similar method to these using the CS of 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2 Wouldn't it be better value, not to mention easier, just to back the straight draw. The dutched CS odds on these scores are probably going to be a lower price than the draw odds - and you are not going to be happy if it's a 3-3 or a Chelsea 4-4!