muppet77 Posted November 24, 2007 Share Posted November 24, 2007 this attempt at a system uses an elo system (as used in chess ratings) to calculate the 'fair' odds. a bet is made when the favourite shows value. no bets on draws. all bets are level one unit. odds are betfair. profit is with 5% removed for commission. this has shown a 14% yield so far in the prem and an 11% yield last season...so let's test it! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 24, 2007 Author Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: ELO premiership h a bet odds 24/11/2007 Birmingham Portsmouth A 2.38 24/11/2007 Everton Sunderland H 1.69 24/11/2007 Man City Reading H 1.7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted November 24, 2007 Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: ELO premiership good luck mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Posted November 24, 2007 Share Posted November 24, 2007 (edited) Deleted Edited May 5, 2020 by Deleted Deleted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 24, 2007 Author Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: ELO premiership cheer Aliando. At start of season you started with equal points for each team ? No, i ran the model for many seasons and then used the end points to re-seed the model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 24, 2007 Author Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: ELO premiership h a bet odds result profit 24/11/2007 Birmingham Portsmouth A 2.38 A 1.31 24/11/2007 Everton Sunderland H 1.69 H 0.66 24/11/2007 Man City Reading H 1.7 H 0.67 PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY wins 2 1 losses 0 0 bets 2 1 strike 100% 100% profit 1.32 1.31 yield 66.0% 131.1% av odds 1.69 2.38 exp wins 1.2 0.4 exp losses 0.8 0.6 chi test 76% 76% wins ahead 0.8 0.6 textbook. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Posted November 24, 2007 Share Posted November 24, 2007 (edited) Deleted Edited May 5, 2020 by Deleted Deleted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted November 24, 2007 Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: ELO premiership Nice start to the system :clap Best of luck for the rest of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted November 24, 2007 Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: ELO premiership .... hi there yong fella, how were these teams chosen then, were they a section of the largest differences between the team ratings?;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 25, 2007 Author Share Posted November 25, 2007 Re: ELO premiership cheers wumpking.:ok were they a section of the largest differences between the team ratings? no, i inferred the prices from the difference in rating and then bet where value was present in the favourite. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REMIXXX Posted November 26, 2007 Share Posted November 26, 2007 Re: ELO premiership cheers wumpking.:ok no, i inferred the prices from the difference in rating and then bet where value was present in the favourite. :ok Are you calculating probabilities (Homewin; Awaywin) for differences? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 26, 2007 Author Share Posted November 26, 2007 Re: ELO premiership yes i use the data i have on predicted difference (or supremacy) and look at how it relates to match results. from this i work out the fair odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REMIXXX Posted November 27, 2007 Share Posted November 27, 2007 Re: ELO premiership yes i use the data i have on predicted difference (or supremacy) and look at how it relates to match results. from this i work out the fair odds. In simple: you're looking for the overlay?:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 27, 2007 Author Share Posted November 27, 2007 Re: ELO premiership In simple: you're looking for the overlay?:) sorry remixx, what's an overlay? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REMIXXX Posted November 27, 2007 Share Posted November 27, 2007 Re: ELO premiership sorry remixx' date=' what's an overlay?[/quote'] :) Example: MU vs Chelsea probability for MU win is 60% probability for Chelsea win is 10% probability for Draw is 30% Odds: MU = 2, Draw = 3.5, Chelsea = 3 Than: MU: 2*0,6=1.2 - Overlay is 20% so it is good odds to bet Draw: 3.5*0.3=1.05 - Overlay is 5% so it is overlay, but not enought:) Chelsea: 3*0.1=0.3 - Overlay is 0.3-1=-70% so it's no overlay at all and it's not good to bet Just example, not history:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 27, 2007 Author Share Posted November 27, 2007 Re: ELO premiership erm, yes i suppose so. i have never heard it called overlay before. i usually call it value. also i only look for value on the bookmaker's favourite, not on all three outcomes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REMIXXX Posted November 27, 2007 Share Posted November 27, 2007 Re: ELO premiership erm, yes i suppose so. i have never heard it called overlay before. i usually call it value. also i only look for value on the bookmaker's favourite, not on all three outcomes. Than it can be profitable long time:) Best of luck! Can you ask me the question: what kind of overlay (value) is enought for bet by your system. Reason: usuaaly if you take 10% value and over, than your ROI (Yeild) in long term will be about 10%'s:) If probability was right calculated off course:):ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 27, 2007 Author Share Posted November 27, 2007 Re: ELO premiership to be honest i only add on 5% to allow for bF'S commission. other than this, nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 29, 2007 Author Share Posted November 29, 2007 Re: ELO premiership h a bet odds Blackburn Newcastle H 2 Portsmouth Everton H 2.38 Reading Middlesbrough H 2.08 Wigan Man City A 2.54 Interesting the Reading and Man City games are featured in the 'regression thread' picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 2, 2007 Author Share Posted December 2, 2007 Re: ELO premiership h a bet odds result profit Blackburn Newcastle H 2 H 0.95 Portsmouth Everton H 2.38 D -1.00 Reading Middlesbrough H 2.08 D -1.00 Wigan Man City A 2.54 D -1.00 NO BETS TODAY. ELO PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 3 1 4 losses 2 1 3 bets 5 2 7 strike 60% 50% 57% profit 0.27 0.31 0.58 yield 5% 16% 8% av odds 1.94 2.46 0.48 exp wins 2.6 0.8 3.39 exp losses 2.4 1.2 3.61 chi test 29% 21% 35% wins ahead 0.4 0.2 0.6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 5, 2007 Author Share Posted December 5, 2007 Re: ELO premiership h a bet odds Newcastle Arsenal A 1.83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 6, 2007 Author Share Posted December 6, 2007 Re: ELO premiership 05/12/2007 Newcastle Arsenal A 1.83 D -1.00 ELO PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 3 1 4 losses 2 2 4 bets 5 3 8 strike 60% 33% 50% profit 0.27 -0.69 -0.42 yield 5% -23% -5% av odds 1.94 2.21 0.49 exp wins 2.6 1.4 3.94 exp losses 2.4 1.6 4.06 chi test 29% 32% 3% wins ahead 0.4 -0.4 0.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 6, 2007 Author Share Posted December 6, 2007 Re: ELO premiership h a bet odds Aston Villa Portsmouth H 2.2 Everton Fulham H 1.65 Bolton Wigan H 2.06 Tottenham Man City H 2.1 Reading Liverpool A 1.71 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 9, 2007 Author Share Posted December 9, 2007 Re: ELO premiership h a bet odds result profit Aston Villa Portsmouth H 2.2 A -1.00 Everton Fulham H 1.65 H 0.62 ELO PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 4 1 5 losses 3 2 5 bets 7 3 10 strike 57% 33% 50% profit -0.11 -0.69 -0.80 yield -2% -23% -8% av odds 1.92 2.21 0.50 exp wins 3.6 1.4 5.00 exp losses 3.4 1.6 5.00 chi test 21% 32% 0% wins ahead 0.4 -0.4 -0.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 9, 2007 Author Share Posted December 9, 2007 Re: ELO premiership Reading Liverpool A 1.71 H -1.00 ELO PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 4 1 5 losses 3 3 6 bets 7 4 11 strike 57% 25% 45% profit -0.11 -1.69 -1.80 yield -2% -42% -16% av odds 1.92 2.06 0.51 exp wins 3.6 1.9 5.59 exp losses 3.4 2.1 5.41 chi test 21% 66% 28% wins ahead 0.4 -0.9 -0.6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 13, 2007 Author Share Posted December 13, 2007 Re: ELO premiership h a bet odds result profit Bolton Wigan H 2.06 H 1.01 Tottenham Man City H 2.1 H 1.05 ELO PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 6 1 7 losses 3 3 6 bets 9 4 13 strike 67% 25% 54% profit 1.94 -1.69 0.25 yield 22% -42% 2% av odds 1.96 2.06 0.50 exp wins 4.6 1.9 6.55 exp losses 4.4 2.1 6.45 chi test 65% 66% 20% wins ahead 1.4 -0.9 0.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 13, 2007 Author Share Posted December 13, 2007 Re: ELO premiership h a bet odds Birmingham Reading H 2.28 Portsmouth Tottenham H 2.32 Sunderland Aston Villa A 2.36 Derby Middlesbrough A 2.4 Fulham Newcastle H 2.7 West Ham Everton H 2.78 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 15, 2007 Author Share Posted December 15, 2007 Re: ELO premiership h a bet odds result profit Birmingham Reading H 2.28 D -1.00 Portsmouth Tottenham H 2.32 A -1.00 Sunderland Aston Villa A 2.36 D -1.00 Derby Middlesbrough A 2.4 A 1.33 Fulham Newcastle H 2.7 pending West HamEverton H 2.78 A -1.00 and for Grand slam sunday.... h a bet odds Arsenal Chelsea H 2.62 Liverpool Man Utd H 2.74 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 20, 2007 Author Share Posted December 20, 2007 Re: ELO premiership h a bet odds result profit Arsenal Chelsea H 2.62 H 1.54 Liverpool Man Utd H 2.74 A -1.00 ELO PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 7 2 9 losses 8 4 12 bets 15 6 21 strike 47% 33% 43% profit -1.52 -1.36 -2.88 yield -10% -23% -14% av odds 2.16 2.15 0.46 exp wins 6.9 2.8 9.73 exp losses 8.1 3.2 11.27 chi test 2% 48% 25% wins ahead 0.1 -0.8 -0.7 h a bet odds Aston Villa Man City H 2.12 Fulham Wigan H 2.16 Reading Sunderland H 1.98 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 22, 2007 Author Share Posted December 22, 2007 Re: ELO premiership h a bet odds result profit Aston Villa Man City H 2.12 D -1.00 Fulham Wigan H 2.16 D -1.00 Reading Sunderland H 1.98 H 0.93 ELO PREMIERSHIP HOMEAWAY BOTH wins 8 2 10 losses 10 4 14 bets 18 6 24 strike 44% 33% 42% profit -2.59 -1.36 -3.95 yield -14% -23% -16% av odds 2.15 2.15 0.47 exp wins 8.4 2.8 11.17 exp losses 9.6 3.2 12.83 chi test 15% 48% 37% wins ahead -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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