BigBugBuzz Posted February 8, 2008 Author Share Posted February 8, 2008 Re: Analysis of mScope at Betgraphs Thanks ASC. It helps if I can read the score card LOL! :D So, I will re-do the status, because AZ - PSV Finished in 0-2, which the system picked at odds 2.22. The Result is as follows: This Weekend: Bet: 19 Returned: 26.27 ROI: 38.26% All Weekends Bet: 232 Returned: 209.57 ROI: -9.7% BigBugBuzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBugBuzz Posted February 8, 2008 Author Share Posted February 8, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBugBuzz Posted February 11, 2008 Author Share Posted February 11, 2008 Re: Analysis of mScope at Betgraphs The match between Arsenal and Blackburn will start in about 1 hr 30 minutes. I will remove this match from the coupon, because it is not a weekend match, and thus breaks the rule of the system, namely that only mScope weekend matches will be tracked. Since the match has not yet started, I think this action can be defended. BigBugBuzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBugBuzz Posted February 11, 2008 Author Share Posted February 11, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBugBuzz Posted February 15, 2008 Author Share Posted February 15, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBugBuzz Posted February 18, 2008 Author Share Posted February 18, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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Grex Posted March 17, 2008 Share Posted March 17, 2008 Re: Analysis of mScope at Betgraphs Great weekend :ok. I don´t think many "systems" would have picked out Cottbus :loon and Wolfsburg, but then the German Bundesliga is always a bit of a lottery, as I have found out to my detriment in the past :@. I will follow this with interest.... good work, BBB:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 17, 2008 Share Posted March 17, 2008 Re: Analysis of mScope at Betgraphs By the way BBB, your "Join Date" (13 January 2006) is my birthday :cheers.... well, actually the anniversary of my birthday...... if I was born in 2006, that would make me 14 months old, and you don´t see many toddlers who are hooked on gambling..... but perhaps somebody has a "or so I thought" story :rollin. Sorry about this stupid post.... it´s lunch-time, and I´m bored :zzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBugBuzz Posted March 18, 2008 Author Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: Analysis of mScope at Betgraphs Hi Grex, that's okay, I know the feeling ;) No, not many at 14 months are hooked, but the world is a big place, it might be on the front page of a newspaper one of these days :D "Baby accepts wagers on colour of next dummy". Anyway, mScope does pick some high odds events, but I don't think that is because it is likely to happen, just more likely than the odds indicate. This is purely a value system. BBB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: Analysis of mScope at Betgraphs "Baby accepts wagers on colour of next dummy".BBB ..... nice thought ;) Anyway' date=' mScope does pick some high odds events, but I don't think that is because it is likely to happen, just more likely than the odds indicate. This is purely a value system.BBB[/quote'] I have developed a few "value bets" systems based on predicted probabilities. I usually find that you have to limit your selections to a value range between, say, 95% and 120%..... anything above 120% and performance declines. I´m sure Cottbus & Wolfsburg were way above 120%. Still if the mScope system is working, don´t knock it :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBugBuzz Posted March 21, 2008 Author Share Posted March 21, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBugBuzz Posted March 28, 2008 Author Share Posted March 28, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBugBuzz Posted March 28, 2008 Author Share Posted March 28, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBugBuzz Posted April 1, 2008 Author Share Posted April 1, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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BigBugBuzz Posted April 11, 2008 Author Share Posted April 11, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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Fast Eddie Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Re: Analysis of mScope at Betgraphs Good work on this mate. I probably have an overly cynical view of these people who sell systems which always seem to have such high returns quoted, makes you wonder who they're aiming their product at, mugpunters or people who actually understand how difficult it is to achieve a high positive return from this sort of thing. From your work it seems this is just about holding its own. Where do the prices you're quoting come from, betgraphs or your own source? Ed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBugBuzz Posted April 18, 2008 Author Share Posted April 18, 2008 Re: Analysis of mScope at Betgraphs The odds are from Betgraphs, but to be fair, they are as live as most odds comparison sites. The is a delay though from the time I scrape the selections to I get it into the right format, and then post on here. I think I will continue posting. Like you say, a margin around 2-3% is quite hard to achieve over 500 or so bets from a mechanic system certainly. BigBugBuzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBugBuzz Posted April 18, 2008 Author Share Posted April 18, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBugBuzz Posted April 18, 2008 Author Share Posted April 18, 2008 Re: Analysis of mScope at Betgraphs Further to your comments Eddie, I think the debate regarding ROI and 'action' is interesting. Betgraphs mScope appears to churn out hundreds of selections every week, albeit at a low margin. This compared with a human expert, that can hit perhaps 10% over 500 bets, but it will take perhaps years to reach that number of bets. I think if the goal is to reach some monetary value, there is an interesting trade-off between ROI and 'action'. Sure there is a precise mathematical formula involving the average size of odds and margin. Perhaps in fact related to Kelly's Criteria, which was about maximising long term returns. BigBugBuzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fast Eddie Posted April 19, 2008 Share Posted April 19, 2008 Re: Analysis of mScope at Betgraphs Of course the logistics of placing so many bets at so many different bookies (necessary if you want the best prices) is a big drawback, I'd rather 4 or 5 really great value bets than a shedload of bets with one or two percent profit margin. I presume most of these tipsters give you that option by rating the picks, I don't know? Not heard of this Kelly's Criteria, I 'll go and look into it. Also someone on the forum has a formula for assessing the percentage chance that any results from a set of bets has occurred by chance, based on number of bets, odds, etc, I think. Can't remember what it was called but quite useful in these analyses of systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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