Wincanton 22/11

[bowles10]

ok, looked at the favourites records again Concentrating on the chase races here today Novice chases held here in NOvember over 7 years

Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	13	8	61.5%	127.3%	11	84.6%	118.7%

Novice chases held here (all months) over 7 years

Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	62	31	50.0%	98.2%	40	64.5%	91.3%

so as you can see, the November stat is far higher than the annual stat, 84.6% place rate for the favourite in Novice chases is worth following. Handicap chases in November over 7 years

Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	33	14	42.4%	127.9%	18	54.5%	105.2%

More good returns but the place stat is quite low @ 54.5% Handicap chases (all months) over 7 years

Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	151	56	37.1%	111.5%	79	52.3%	95.3%

Those % are not quite good enough & may represent LAY opportunities on the handicap chases of which there are 2 today.

[bowles10]

Re: Wincanton 22/11 again the formatting on the tables hasnt transferred across properly. titles should read - Bets, wins, Wins SR, Win % return @ SP, Placed (inc wins), Placed SR, EW % return @ SP

[bowles10]

Re: Wincanton 22/11 2.00 Novice chase

No.	Form	Horse	Trainer RTF %		Wgt	Jockey
1	321761	La Grande Villez 15	"); //-->Harringay 243	"); //-->Ice Cream 173	"); //-->Miss Mitch 201	"); //-->Presenting Copper 12		"); //-->Strawberry 12	73	6	11-0	Wayne Kavanagh(3)	1	-	-	12	12

On Ground worse than Good in November over last 7 years, 2 from 3 favs have won with the other a faller. Presenting Copper is the fav at present on the book, but we will bet unnamed favourite anyhow. Recommendation Back Unnamed Favourite to win & place

[bowles10]

Re: Wincanton 22/11 On ground worse than good, the favourites in November in H'cap hurdles have fared as follows

Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	6	1	16.7%	54.2%	5	83.3%	87.1%

Placed looks the best to be on for the favourite in these type of races if a total of 6 races can be a guide? 2.30 race The trends for the race show that the favourite finished as follows: 2 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 2 - 1 so I will definitely be looking for a place bet on the likely favourite today. At present that is Shanxi Girl & i dont expect that to drift.

No.

Form

Horse

Trainer RTF %

Wgt

Jockey

1

4P-472

Saint Godegrand 3

"); //-->M´Lord 22

"); //-->Shanxi Girl 16

"); //-->Hugo Wolf 188

"); //-->Farmer Brent 325

"); //-->See More Jock 260

"); //-->Festival Flyer 209

"); //-->Maori Legend 241

D P Keane 33

6

10-9

Joe Tizzard

1

105

102

15/2

8

Recommendation Back fav to place (likely to be Shanxi girl)

[bowles10]

Re: Wincanton 22/11 3.00 Handicap chase (stats below for h'cap chases held in November on ground worse than good)

Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	9	2	22.2%	61.1%	2	22.2%	46.5%

a poor return for the favourites in these races. There are 2 today, 3.00 Tom Sayers or Geevem will be the favourite. Geevem is trained by Nicholls who has a 26% SR over chases here. As i have already tipped 2 Hobbs horses in the previous 2 races, Tom Sayers could go off short if they both win. Recommendation LAY the fav (likely to be Tom Sayers) BACK the Nicholls horse if not fav (Geevem) 4.00 I am expecting a weak favourite in this race at around 3/1, there are 3 horses vying for favouritsm at the moment. My bet would be to avoid the fav but back the 2nd & 3rd in the betting. Recommendation Ignore the fav BACK 2nd & 3rd favourite (both around 7/2 at present).

[Gingertipster]

Re: Wincanton 22/11 So Bowles, your reccommended bets are: 2:00 An unknown horse (fav) at an unknown price. Will it be value? 2:30 The fav (probably around 11/8 for the win) for a place. What price is that going to be? 1/8? Have I got that right?

[Woodie]

Re: Wincanton 22/11 3.30 Super Nick Has some good form from last season and clearly likes the soft going. First time out today for new stable and could be the best time to catch him gets the distance well and should be there at the end.

[bowles10]

Re: Wincanton 22/11

So Bowles, your reccommended bets are: 2:00 An unknown horse (fav) at an unknown price. Will it be value? 2:30 The fav (probably around 11/8 for the win) for a place. What price is that going to be? 1/8? Have I got that right?

Yep, thats right. I am only using the stats as i did yesterday. I cannot guarantee whether the horse in the 2.00 will be "value" but if it wins, who cares. The word value has been debated on here before & we all have different versions. If the fav goes off at 2/1 (its 2.9 on Betfair at present & 1.66 a place), then the stats i show 61.5% win & 84.6% place may prove to be good value. In the 2.30 race. The fav is showing @ 1.37 a place, thats around 4/11. With 8 runners still & a stat that shows favs have finished 1st & 2nd in this race over the last 7 years, I am happy to take that price. I wouldnt back it to win as the favs wins stats are just not good enough. :ok

[copydeskcat]

Re: Wincanton 22/11 sorry for sounding stupid here.... but when you say "back fav to win and place", what kind of bet are you talking about here - an e/w or two separate bets?

[Sonoftherock]

Re: Wincanton 22/11

sorry for sounding stupid here.... but when you say "back fav to win and place"' date=' what kind of bet are you talking about here - an e/w or two separate bets?[/quote'] I think Bowles is recommending that two bets are placed on an exchange (eg betfair) backing both the favourite to win the race and also, a separate bet on the favourite finishing within the places. You can only bet each way with bookmakers, the exchanges don't have this function.

[bowles10]

Re: Wincanton 22/11

I think Bowles is recommending that two bets are placed on an exchange (eg betfair) backing both the favourite to win the race and also, a separate bet on the favourite finishing within the places. You can only bet each way with bookmakers, the exchanges don't have this function.

yes thats right, the bet would ideally be a split stake i.e £10, have £7 on the win & £3 on the place. That way if it gets beaten into a place, you get something back.

[bowles10]

Re: Wincanton 22/11

2.00 Novice chase On Ground worse than Good in November over last 7 years, 2 from 3 favs have won with the other a faller. Presenting Copper is the fav at present on the book, but we will bet unnamed favourite anyhow. Recommendation Back Unnamed Favourite to win & place

suppose you cant win them all! Ended up as a muddling fav with Presenting copper driftimng like a barge from 6/4 to 3/1 & La Grande Villez ending as fav. Race won by miss mith who at one point was co-fav. Fav was 5/2 winner was 11/4, thats how close it was! Fav ended up 3rd after a photo for the place. :$

[bowles10]

Re: Wincanton 22/11

On ground worse than good, the favourites in November in H'cap hurdles have fared as follows Placed looks the best to be on for the favourite in these type of races if a total of 6 races can be a guide? 2.30 race The trends for the race show that the favourite finished as follows: 2 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 2 - 1 so I will definitely be looking for a place bet on the likely favourite today. At present that is Shanxi Girl & i dont expect that to drift. Recommendation Back fav to place (likely to be Shanxi girl)

well something wrong with Hobbs horses today, another drfiter out to 9/4 & yet another faller, one day Johnson might actually get round:lol no return on this fav as it fell. Couldnt see it being out of the places but we will never know.

[bowles10]

Re: Wincanton 22/11

3.00 Handicap chase (stats below for h'cap chases held in November on ground worse than good) a poor return for the favourites in these races. There are 2 today, 3.00 Tom Sayers or Geevem will be the favourite. Geevem is trained by Nicholls who has a 26% SR over chases here. As i have already tipped 2 Hobbs horses in the previous 2 races, Tom Sayers could go off short if they both win. Recommendation LAY the fav (likely to be Tom Sayers) :clap BACK the Nicholls horse if not fav (Geevem) :clap

Got that one right, Tom sayers again drfited in the market but a great price on Geevem :ok

Wincanton 3.00
1st	3 Geeveem (IRE)	7-2
2nd	5 Nykel (FR)	15-8 F

[bowles10]

Re: Wincanton 22/11 i posted this at the start of the thread & now awaiting 1st show 4.00 I am expecting a weak favourite in this race at around 3/1, there are 3 horses vying for favouritsm at the moment. My bet would be to avoid the fav but back the 2nd & 3rd in the betting. Recommendation Ignore the fav BACK 2nd & 3rd favourite (both around 7/2 at present). I am expecting Island of Memories to be favourite so will be backing the 2nd / 3rd in the betting for some value. blimey 1st show isnt that helpful

7	Island of Memories (IRE)						11-4		2.80	1.60	Bet!
4	Pauntley Gofa						3		3.70	1.60	Bet!
2	The Local						4		7.80	3.80	Bet!
6	Jupon Vert (FR)						4		8.50	1.50	Bet!
3	Good Old Days (IRE)						15-2		4.00	6.80	Bet!
5	Lidjo De Rouge (FR)						25		17.80	5.60	Bet!
1	Made In Montot (FR)

will be back at 3.55 to see if anything changes. :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Wincanton 22/11 ok, as the prices are tight, this may go tits up but my bets are Pauntley gofa & the Local.

[bowles10]

Re: Wincanton 22/11

ok' date=' as the prices are tight, this may go tits up but my bets are [b']Pauntley gofa & the Local.

i got 5.2 & 4.8 on Betfair.

[bowles10]

Re: Wincanton 22/11

ok' date=' as the prices are tight, this may go tits up but my bets are [b']Pauntley gofa & the Local.

:nana:nana:nana Pauntley gofa wins @ 7/2, great price on Betfair of 5.2 just before the off as forecast both the handicap chases were lay opportunities for the favourite. :ok