Warwick 21/11

[bowles10]

Warwick has one of the best favourite stats acorss all the jumps tracks. I have taken all the results for November over the last 7 years thanks to massey & removed the Novice hurdles from the stats

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	60	29	48.3%	122.7%	42	70.0%	113.4%

Followed by removing the NH flat stats :

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	48	27	56.3%	143.6%	35	72.9%	126.9%

The races on the card are analysed as follows: Race 1 Novice hurdle (no bet)

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	25	9	36.0%	79.9%	17	68.0%	84.7%

Race 2 Handicap chase (bet)

Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	17	8	47.1%	159.6%	11	64.7%	130.4%

Race 3 Novice hurdle (no bet) Race 4 Novices chase (bet)

Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	12	9	75.0%	140.8%	10	83.3%	133.3%

Race 5 Handicap hurdle (bet)

Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	12	6	50.0%	120.6%	9	75.0%	115.4%

Race 6 Handicap chase (bet) Race 7 NHFlat race (no bet)

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	12	2	16.7%	39.2%	7	58.3%	59.6%

That leaves me with 4 bets tomorrow on the favourite in the following races: 1.20 (tissue price of fav 7/4) 2.20 (7/4) 2.50 (11/4) 3.20 (7/2) I will need to back all four & need to decide : if i back singles only try to cover the place as long as i can identify the fav just before the off put them in a yankee

[bowles10]

Re: Warwick 21/11 apologies some of the titles on the tables are mixed up they should read Bets wins win strike rate win % return at SP Placed (inc wins) Place strike rate EW % return at SP anything over 100% is a profit. In Novice chases held here in November 9 favs from 12 have won giving a return of 140.8% on level stakes. Obviously, i am not expecting all 4 favs to win tomorrow but these type of stats are useful to see which races to avoid. I have further added another filter in only retaining races run on ground worse than Good.

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	18	10	55.6%	136.1%	13	72.2%	121.0%