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Warwick 21/11

bowles10

By bowles10
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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bowles10

bowles10

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Warwick has one of the best favourite stats acorss all the jumps tracks. I have taken all the results for November over the last 7 years thanks to massey & removed the Novice hurdles from the stats

BetsWinsWin Strike RateWin %Return at SPPlaced (inc wins)Place Strike RateEach-Way %Return at SP
All Selections602948.3%122.7%4270.0%113.4%
Followed by removing the NH flat stats :
BetsWinsWin Strike RateWin %Return at SPPlaced (inc wins)Place Strike RateEach-Way %Return at SP
All Selections482756.3%143.6%3572.9%126.9%
The races on the card are analysed as follows: Race 1 Novice hurdle (no bet)
BetsWinsWin Strike RateWin %Return at SPPlaced (inc wins)Place Strike RateEach-Way %Return at SP
All Selections25936.0%79.9%1768.0%84.7%
Race 2 Handicap chase (bet)
BetsWinsWin Strike RateWin %Return at SPPlaced (inc wins)Place Strike RateEach-Way %Return at SP
All Selections17847.1%159.6%1164.7%130.4%
Race 3 Novice hurdle (no bet) Race 4 Novices chase (bet)
BetsWinsWin Strike RateWin %Return at SPPlaced (inc wins)Place Strike RateEach-Way %Return at SP
All Selections12975.0%140.8%1083.3%133.3%
Race 5 Handicap hurdle (bet)
BetsWinsWin Strike RateWin %Return at SPPlaced (inc wins)Place Strike RateEach-Way %Return at SP
All Selections12650.0%120.6%975.0%115.4%
Race 6 Handicap chase (bet) Race 7 NHFlat race (no bet)
BetsWinsWin Strike RateWin %Return at SPPlaced (inc wins)Place Strike RateEach-Way %Return at SP
All Selections12216.7%39.2%758.3%59.6%
That leaves me with 4 bets tomorrow on the favourite in the following races: 1.20 (tissue price of fav 7/4) 2.20 (7/4) 2.50 (11/4) 3.20 (7/2) I will need to back all four & need to decide : if i back singles only try to cover the place as long as i can identify the fav just before the off put them in a yankee
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bowles10

bowles10

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Re: Warwick 21/11 apologies some of the titles on the tables are mixed up they should read Bets wins win strike rate win % return at SP Placed (inc wins) Place strike rate EW % return at SP anything over 100% is a profit. In Novice chases held here in November 9 favs from 12 have won giving a return of 140.8% on level stakes. Obviously, i am not expecting all 4 favs to win tomorrow but these type of stats are useful to see which races to avoid. I have further added another filter in only retaining races run on ground worse than Good.

BetsWinsWin Strike RateWin %Return at SPPlaced (inc wins)Place Strike RateEach-Way %Return at SP
All Selections181055.6%136.1%1372.2%121.0%
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PL_Crewman

PL_Crewman

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Re: Warwick 21/11 2:50 Opare Today might just be one to give it's best performance yet. Warwick is a track that H D Daly (trainer) is able send winners over hurdles. 6 wins from 23 the last 5 seasons for +10.13 LSP. Opare have not been sent hurdling in one the of the trainers course where the runners perform their best. Over the last 5 seasons the tracks where Opare have raced at does not account for good results when it comes to the trainers hurdlers. Huntongdon: 2 wins from 14 for a loss of 5.50 (Opare finished 10th) Bangor: 3 wins from 18 for a loss of 8.14 (Opare finished 6th) Uttoxeter: 2 wins from 32 for a loss of 23.90 (Opare finished 5th) Stratford: 1 win from 18 for a loss of 16.50 (Opare finihsed 4th) The jockey Richard Johnson does well at the hurdles course here. 13 wins from 53 rides for +10.86 LSP. 16.50/3.60 @ Betfair

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bowles10

bowles10

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Re: Warwick 21/11 12.50 I have already highlighted the fact that the favourites in the novice hurdles here only win 36% of their races in November. This race also has a trend of 4yo's winning 8 out of last 10 races, 2 favs have won in those 10 years. 3 of the last 10 have been making thier debuts over hurdles. Prince Taime fits the bill today & is a worthy challenger to the favourite. Interestringly this was bought out of Henry Dalys yard after winning its bumper in May. Daly has Pop today in opposition & thats another i give a chance to. Recommendation Lay the fav Ouzbeck @ 1.85 betfair Back Prince Taime to win @ 9.2 Betfair Back Pop to place @ 5.4 betfair

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bowles10

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Re: Warwick 21/11 2.20 A very interesting novice chase. My favs stats above show that 75% of favs have won in 12 races in November in last 7 years. The trainer stats on this course are also worth noting: Alan King 41% SR in chases here (7 from 17) G Macaire 60% SR at Warwick (3 from 5) P Nicholls 32% SR in chases here (11 from 34) Jonjo only has 11% SR here in chases (3 from 27) Pat Haslam has only 0 from 1 attempt. Nicholls has won this race 3 times in the last 6 years. Recommendation Back the favourite (should be the Nicholls horse) Back the Nicholls horse if not fav Marodima @ 2.88 Betfair Have a saver on Pepsyrock @ 5.0 Betfair

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bowles10

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Re: Warwick 21/11 3.50 NH Flat race The stats above already show i will not be backing the favourite here. The only trainer in the race to have a winner here in NH Flat races is Carl Llewellyn, he saddles Master charm today who should go well. Carl had a winner yesterday on the level & this one is worth a win/place. Recommendation Back Master Charm win & place. @ 5.0 win / 2.02 place currently showing as fav so this may be a non bet - will decide later once a clear fav is known. The place bet will remain.

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Carl

Carl

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Re: Warwick 21/11 great work Bowles:clap 20071121War125001.png Ouzbeck 12.50 Warwick Made a promising start since moving from France to land 3of 17 at Wincanton over todays trip of 2miles. Won on his debut this season at Uttoxeter again over todays trip on good-firm "raced keenly in mid-division, headway approaching 6th, went 2nd after next, ridden between last 2, led final 100 yards, driven out" Choc Thornton retains the ride for the inform Alan King and can make it 2 from 2 for the top jockey. 20071121War142003.png Marodima 2.20 Warwick Has run behind some very usful sorts on his last 2 starts over the chase, LTO he was 2nd to the very smart Leslingtaylor and before that 2nd behind one of my tips Tramantano who ran the other day. His 2 career wins over hurdles have been very convincing totaling 24 Lengths and he should build on those 2 recent runs to land this.

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bowles10

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Re: Warwick 21/11 back to my 1st post & the fate of the 4 favs that i have chosen Currently odds are: 1.20 Betfair fav is Arumun @ 3.55 win/2.04 place Bookies fav is Arumun @ 5/2 best price 2.20 Betfair fav is Marodima @ 2.88 win/1.62 place Bookies fav is Marodima @ 7/4 best price 2.50 Betfair fav is Mickmagoogle @ 3.8 win/ 1.64 place Bookies fav is Mickmagoogle @ 3/1 best price 3.20 Betfair fav is Present m'lord @ 3.85 win/ 1.65 place Bookies fav is Present m'lord @ 3/1 best price Very noticeable that the Betfair odds are not higher than the best price available which is unusual. As the stat is to back the fav, i will leave the best at SP but it will be interesting to see what the prices turn out like.

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Sonoftherock

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Re: Warwick 21/11

12.50 I have already highlighted the fact that the favourites in the novice hurdles here only win 36% of their races in November. This race also has a trend of 4yo's winning 8 out of last 10 races, 2 favs have won in those 10 years. 3 of the last 10 have been making thier debuts over hurdles. Prince Taime fits the bill today & is a worthy challenger to the favourite. Interestringly this was bought out of Henry Dalys yard after winning its bumper in May. Daly has Pop today in opposition & thats another i give a chance to. Recommendation Lay the fav Ouzbeck @ 1.85 betfair Back Prince Taime to win @ 9.2 Betfair Back Pop to place @ 5.4 betfair
12.50 Warwick
1st 15 Prince Taime (FR) 9-1
2nd 1 Ouzbeck (FR) 4-7 F
3rd 13 Pop (FR) 22-1
Tote Win £11.60 Pl £2.90, £1.10, £5.70 EX £20.50 SF £13.91 Winning Trainer P J Hobbs Winning Jockey R Johnson Distances 1/2l, 3 1/2l 18 ran
Superb! Absolutely outstanding! :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy
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bowles10

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Re: Warwick 21/11

12.50 Warwick
1st 15 Prince Taime (FR) 9-1
2nd 1 Ouzbeck (FR) 4-7 F
3rd 13 Pop (FR) 22-1
Tote Win £11.60 Pl £2.90, £1.10, £5.70 EX £20.50 SF £13.91 Winning Trainer P J Hobbs Winning Jockey R Johnson Distances 1/2l, 3 1/2l 18 ran
Superb! Absolutely outstanding! :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy
that went really well, was well worth the work i put in!! :ok
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bowles10

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Re: Warwick 21/11

back to my 1st post & the fate of the 4 favs that i have chosen Currently odds are: 1.20 Betfair fav is Arumun @ 3.55 win/2.04 place :clap Bookies fav is Arumun @ 5/2 best price 2.20 Betfair fav is Marodima @ 2.88 win/1.62 place Bookies fav is Marodima @ 7/4 best price 2.50 Betfair fav is Mickmagoogle @ 3.8 win/ 1.64 place Bookies fav is Mickmagoogle @ 3/1 best price 3.20 Betfair fav is Present m'lord @ 3.85 win/ 1.65 place Bookies fav is Present m'lord @ 3/1 best price Very noticeable that the Betfair odds are not higher than the best price available which is unusual. As the stat is to back the fav, i will leave the best at SP but it will be interesting to see what the prices turn out like.
1st fav Arumun goes in at 11/4 as expected according to the stats. :ok
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bowles10

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Re: Warwick 21/11

Warwick has one of the best favourite stats acorss all the jumps tracks. I have taken all the results for November over the last 7 years thanks to massey & removed the Novice hurdles from the stats The races on the card are analysed as follows: Race 1 Novice hurdle (no bet) favourite beaten :ok Race 2 Handicap chase (bet) favourite won 11/4 :ok Race 3 Novice hurdle (no bet) favourite beaten :ok Race 4 Novices chase (bet) Race 5 Handicap hurdle (bet) Race 6 Handicap chase (bet) Race 7 NHFlat race (no bet)
1st 3 races going according to the stats :ok
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bowles10

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Re: Warwick 21/11

2.20 A very interesting novice chase. My favs stats above show that 75% of favs have won in 12 races in November in last 7 years. The trainer stats on this course are also worth noting: Alan King 41% SR in chases here (7 from 17) G Macaire 60% SR at Warwick (3 from 5) P Nicholls 32% SR in chases here (11 from 34) Jonjo only has 11% SR here in chases (3 from 27) Pat Haslam has only 0 from 1 attempt. Nicholls has won this race 3 times in the last 6 years. Recommendation Back the favourite (should be the Nicholls horse) Back the Nicholls horse if not fav Marodima @ 2.88 Betfair Have a saver on Pepsyrock @ 5.0 Betfair
Marodima wins at 6/4, another fav as expected :ok Pepsyrock ran well but was caught for 2nd at the death. Marodima won easily.
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bowles10

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Re: Warwick 21/11

Nice idea' date=' Rob :ok You try all these trends for the big meetings, why not on a daily basis, when you have the time. Just like [b']JTW likes to do it from time to time :clap This can be successful, sure it can knowing you :loon
I dont get the time to be honest but this has shown me that you can use these filters to good effect from time to time. :ok
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PL_Crewman

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Re: Warwick 21/11

2:50 Opare Today might just be one to give it's best performance yet. Warwick is a track that H D Daly (trainer) is able send winners over hurdles. 6 wins from 23 the last 5 seasons for +10.13 LSP. Opare have not been sent hurdling in one the of the trainers course where the runners perform their best. Over the last 5 seasons the tracks where Opare have raced at does not account for good results when it comes to the trainers hurdlers. Huntongdon: 2 wins from 14 for a loss of 5.50 (Opare finished 10th) Bangor: 3 wins from 18 for a loss of 8.14 (Opare finished 6th) Uttoxeter: 2 wins from 32 for a loss of 23.90 (Opare finished 5th) Stratford: 1 win from 18 for a loss of 16.50 (Opare finihsed 4th) The jockey Richard Johnson does well at the hurdles course here. 13 wins from 53 rides for +10.86 LSP. 16.50/3.60 @ Betfair
Unplaced: Well done Bowles, I should have taken the ex-Daly.:\ Nice win :clap
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bowles10

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Re: Warwick 21/11

back to my 1st post & the fate of the 4 favs that i have chosen Currently odds are: 1.20 Betfair fav is Arumun @ 3.55 win/2.04 place :clap SP 11/4 Bookies fav is Arumun @ 5/2 best price 2.20 Betfair fav is Marodima @ 2.88 win/1.62 place :clap SP 6/4 Bookies fav is Marodima @ 7/4 best price 2.50 Betfair fav is Mickmagoogle @ 3.8 win/ 1.64 place 2nd SP 11/4 Bookies fav is Mickmagoogle @ 3/1 best price 3.20 Betfair fav is Present m'lord @ 3.85 win/ 1.65 place :clap SP 2/1 Bookies fav is Present m'lord @ 3/1 best price Very noticeable that the Betfair odds are not higher than the best price available which is unusual. As the stat is to back the fav, i will leave the best at SP but it will be interesting to see what the prices turn out like.
3 out of 4 with the other coming in a close 2nd. Good day for the stats.
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bowles10

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Re: Warwick 21/11

Thanks Bowles, after noticing your success in the 12.50 I decided to put your 4 selections into a yankee - so, so nearly hit the jackpot.... still made a decent profit anyway! Who says statistics are boring? :clap
always worth noting the stats & hopefully today has been a bit of an education :ok
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bowles10

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Re: Warwick 21/11

Warwick has one of the best favourite stats acorss all the jumps tracks. I have taken all the results for November over the last 7 years thanks to massey & removed the Novice hurdles from the stats The races on the card are analysed as follows: Race 1 Novice hurdle (no bet) fav 2nd :ok Race 2 Handicap chase (bet) fav 1st 11/4:ok Race 3 Novice hurdle (no bet) fav unpl :ok Race 4 Novices chase (bet) fav 1st 6/4:ok Race 5 Handicap hurdle (bet) fav 2nd 11/4 Race 6 Handicap chase (bet) fav 1st 2/1 :ok Race 7 NHFlat race (no bet) fav 2nd :ok That leaves me with 4 bets tomorrow on the favourite in the following races: 1.20 (tissue price of fav 7/4) 2.20 (7/4) 2.50 (11/4) 3.20 (7/2) I will need to back all four & need to decide : if i back singles only try to cover the place as long as i can identify the fav just before the off put them in a yankee
6 out of 7 races correct with the other coming in 2nd :ok an enjoyable day
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bowles10

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Re: Warwick 21/11

Fantastic stuff Rob' date=' i've nominated it for the newsletter as it deserves some recognition with all the work you put in today. :okShame I couldn't get on internet at work, i'd have had a little dabble.[/quote'] cheers guys, its all worth it when you see people have followed advice:ok we have bad days & some very good days. Not sure i even want to look tomorrow but off down the pub now to watch the footie.
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