Contrary System (NBA 07/08)

[Valiant23]

This made a small profit last year and showed a yield of around 4% so I may as well give it a go again. We're a few games into the new season now so should start showing up picks.

Something I have been watching elsewhere is a study regarding the parity of NFL teams and ATS (Against The Spread or Handicap) betting. The thinking behind the theory is that because of this parity on any given Sunday one NFL team can beat another. This is backed up by a study which claims that a high percentage of teams who have an ATS streak of 2 or more wins or losses would do the opposite in the third game. The longest winning streak (ATS) of the NFL teams is just under 2.84 games on average, and the longest losing streak (ATS) is at 2.8 games, on average. What I propose to do, with a starting bank of 1000 pts is to see if this can prove to be a profitable statistic not only on NFL, but also NBA. As an example only I will list the qualifying teams from tonights NFL games, most of which are already underway. Won 2 Arizona +6.5 New England -13.5 Won 3 Tennessee +7.5 Oakland -3.0 Dallas -3.5 Won 4 Buffalo +6.0 San Fran +7.0 Miami +1.0 Lost 2 St. Louis -6.5 Houston +3.0 Philadelphia +3.0 Lost 3 Detroit +13.5 Denver -4.0 Lost 4 Atlanta +4.0 NY Giants +3.5 Lost 5 Minnesota +9.5 So, if the team is on a winning streak I will be taking their opponents ATS, and if they are on a losing streak I will back them ATS. If I can get organised in time I'll put up picks for tonight. If not then I'll start tomorrow. :hope System Amendment 03/02/07 (applies to NBA only) - When the only reason for selecting a game is that only one team is on a 2 game ATS streak, the results after 121 bets are showing a loss of 55.70 pts. When these games are removed from the system there is a huge upturn in all system stats. For this reason I am no longer selecting games when teams are on a 2 game streak, unless the opponents are also on the opposing streak, eg, Miami Heat W2 @ Utah L2. This will still be a selection. See Post 170 for further details.

If I'm quick I may get some picks for tonights games. If not then I think the next ones are Monday. :ok

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08) Orlando have won 4 ATS (Phoenix L2) Phoenix Suns(-1.5) @ Orlando Magic @ 1.89 Boston have won 4 ATS (New Jersey Nets L1) Boston Celtics @ New Jersey Nets(+2) @ 2.11 Utah Jazz have lost 3 ATS (Memphis L1) Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah jazz(-10.5) @ 1.89 Portland have won 3 ATS (Dallas L1) Dallas Mavericks(-8) @ Portland Trailblazers @ 1.94 100pt starting bank. 4 bets @ 5pts per bet=20pts staked :hope Enjoy the ride..... ;)