Hodgey Posted December 12, 2007 Author Share Posted December 12, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... 6 in the CL tonight: CL12-DecArsenal v Steaua BucharestUnder2.28CL12-DecBarcelona v StuttgartUnder2.38CL12-DecFenerbahce v CSKA MoscowUnder2.38CL12-DecPSV v InterOver2.18CL12-DecRangers v LyonOver2.18CL12-DecSp Lisbon v Dinamo KievUnder2.24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 12, 2007 Author Share Posted December 12, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 15, 2007 Author Share Posted December 15, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Fancy some goals in the Championship. :loon Champ15-DecBlackpool v StokeOver2.16Champ15-DecHull v LeicesterOver2.30Champ15-DecQPR v WolvesOver2.32Champ15-DecSheff Utd v BarnsleyOver2.24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 15, 2007 Author Share Posted December 15, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Germans: Ger15-DecBielefeld v StuttgartUnder2.24Ger15-DecH Berlin v B MunichUnder2.26Ger15-DecW Bremen v LeverkusenUnder2.72Ger15-DecWolfsburg v DortmundUnder2.34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 15, 2007 Author Share Posted December 15, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Prem games: Prem15-DecDerby v MiddlesbroughOver2.18Prem15-DecMan City v BoltonOver2.46Prem15-DecSunderland v Aston VillaOver2.16Prem15-DecWest Ham v EvertonOver2.28Prem15-DecWigan v BlackburnOver2.24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted December 15, 2007 Share Posted December 15, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Oh dear. This is turning into a laying thread... :( Totals are bizarre. When I started looking at those value plays i'm tracking it was with the intention of backing but I got to the same point as you. If it's paperbetting though, the main thing is you find consistency either way I guess. Should it be profitable to lay you've found something good. How are you coming up with these plays? My gloryhunt is against you on Villa today but last 2 days have been substandard. Gl today in any case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 15, 2007 Author Share Posted December 15, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Totals are bizarre. When I started looking at those value plays i'm tracking it was with the intention of backing but I got to the same point as you. If it's paperbetting though, the main thing is you find consistency either way I guess. Should it be profitable to lay you've found something good. How are you coming up with these plays? My gloryhunt is against you on Villa today but last 2 days have been substandard. Gl today in any case. Its kind of similar to you mate in that "Im fading the fcuk" out of the favourite! :loon I dont think its gonna be profitable long term, although the Prem looks promising, but if it does turn out to be a good laying thread then cool. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted December 15, 2007 Share Posted December 15, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Its kind of similar to you mate in that "Im fading the fcuk" out of the favourite! :loon I dont think its gonna be profitable long term, although the Prem looks promising, but if it does turn out to be a good laying thread then cool. :ok Gonna make a killing out of these totals longterm and you don't see as many tips on totals as you do on the actual winner:ok Again, good luck with this. Like me, you should be starting to hope for immense failure soon as you want consistency either way haha! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 15, 2007 Author Share Posted December 15, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Ita15-DecCatania v UdineseOver2.20Ita15-DecLazio v JuventusOver2.18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 15, 2007 Author Share Posted December 15, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 15, 2007 Author Share Posted December 15, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Gonna make a killing out of these totals longterm and you don't see as many tips on totals as you do on the actual winner:ok Again, good luck with this. Like me, you should be starting to hope for immense failure soon as you want consistency either way haha! Spot on. Quite pleased they're going down the pan actually!! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted December 15, 2007 Share Posted December 15, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Spot on. Quite pleased they're going down the pan actually!! :lol Well on the road to your fortune;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 15, 2007 Author Share Posted December 15, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Damn...picked up a winner this evening! :lol LeagueDateMatchPickOddsNetOddsScoreGoalsResultW or LBetP/LBalanceIta15-DecCatania v UdineseOver2.202.142-02UnderL100.00(100.00)(1,223.10)Ita15-DecLazio v JuventusOver2.182.122-35OverW100.00112.10(1,111.00) Summary Total Bets Placed 193 Units Staked 19,300.00 Units Returned 18,189.00 Profit (1,111.00) Yield -5.76% Strike Rate 41.97% Average Odds 2.31 Average Odds (Net) 2.25 Average Stake 100.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted December 16, 2007 Share Posted December 16, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Damn...picked up a winner this evening! :lol Yeah and that same winner was a loser for me:( You got any more for today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 16, 2007 Author Share Posted December 16, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Yeah and that same winner was a loser for me:( You got any more for today? Doh! :wall Yep plenty more where that came from. :ok Liverpool v Man Utd Over 2.5 2.46 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 16, 2007 Author Share Posted December 16, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Italy: Ita16-DecEmpoli v GenoaOver2.28Ita16-DecParma v RegginaOver2.20Ita16-DecSampdoria v FiorentinaOver2.18Ita16-DecSiena v NapoliOver2.26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 16, 2007 Author Share Posted December 16, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Spanish Spa16-DecBetis v AlmeriaOver2.46Spa16-DecGetafe v VillarrealOver2.24Spa16-DecMallorca v Ath BilbaoOver2.18Spa16-DecMurcia v SantanderOver2.52Spa16-DecRec de Huelva v Atl MadridOver2.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 16, 2007 Author Share Posted December 16, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Arsenal v Chelsea Over 2.52 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 16, 2007 Author Share Posted December 16, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 16, 2007 Author Share Posted December 16, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... So then a 1000pt loss so far which might lead us to believe that laying the picks would be better. Well unfortunately, the curse that is betfair commission puts paid to that. Laying them all for fixed profits (ie to win 100pts on each) gives us the princely sum of 70pts loss. Summary Bets Placed 204 Units Staked 26,802.00 Units Returned 26,732.00 Profit (70.00) Yield -0.26% Strike Rate 57.84% Average Odds 2.31 Average Odds (Net) 2.25 Average Stake 131.38 I also have the data for the other outcome of each match too. So, if we backed the other outcome for fixed liability of 100pts each (ie 100pt bets) it's even worse and we get 200pt loss. Summary Bets Placed 204 Units Staked 20,400.00 Units Returned 20,199.90 Profit (200.10) Yield -0.98% Strike Rate 57.84% Average Odds 1.75 Average Stake 100.00 God damn commission. :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 19, 2007 Author Share Posted December 19, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... I realised I missed the Real Madrid game off on Sunday - was a winner too. I will leave it out of the stats though. We'll perservere with these for a little while longer so here's tonight's offerings: UEFA19-DecB Munich v Aris Thes.Under2.34UEFA19-DecFC Zurich v LeverkusenUnder2.30UEFA19-DecGalatasaray v Austria ViennaUnder2.64UEFA19-DecGetafe v AnderlechtOver2.38UEFA19-DecToulouse v Spartak MoscowOver2.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 20, 2007 Author Share Posted December 20, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... 3/5 for 200pts profit. :loon UEFA19-DecB Munich v Aris Thes.Under2.342.276-06OverL100.00(100.00)(1,184.00)UEFA19-DecFC Zurich v LeverkusenUnder2.302.240-55OverL100.00(100.00)(1,284.00)UEFA19-DecGalatasaray v Austria ViennaUnder2.642.560-00UnderW100.00155.80(1,128.20)UEFA19-DecGetafe v AnderlechtOver2.382.312-13OverW100.00131.10(997.10)UEFA19-DecToulouse v Spartak MoscowOver2.202.142-13OverW100.00114.00(883.10) Summary Total Bets Placed 209 Units Staked 20,900.00 Units Returned 20,016.90 Profit (883.10) Yield -4.23% Strike Rate 42.58% Average Odds 2.32 Average Odds (Net) 2.25 Average Stake 100.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 20, 2007 Author Share Posted December 20, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Tonight's offerings: UEFA20-DecAEK v VillarrealOver2.26UEFA20-DecAberdeen v FC KobenhavnOver2.30UEFA20-DecFiorentina v Mlada BoleslavUnder2.40UEFA20-DecRennes v Dinamo ZagrebUnder2.42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 21, 2007 Author Share Posted December 21, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Oops forgot about these! 3/4 winners for 278pts profit. :loon LeagueDateMatchPickOddsNetOddsScoreGoalsResultW or LBetP/LBalanceUEFA20-DecAEK v VillarrealOver2.262.201-23OverW100.00119.70(763.40)UEFA20-DecAberdeen v FC KobenhavnOver2.302.244-04OverW100.00123.50(639.90)UEFA20-DecFiorentina v Mlada BoleslavUnder2.402.332-13OverL100.00(100.00)(739.90)UEFA20-DecRennes v Dinamo ZagrebUnder2.422.351-12UnderW100.00134.90(605.00) Summary Total Bets Placed 213 Units Staked 21,300.00 Units Returned 20,695.00 Profit (605.00) Yield -2.84% Strike Rate 43.19% Average Odds 2.32 Average Odds (Net) 2.25 Average Stake 100.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 22, 2007 Author Share Posted December 22, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... English Prem: Prem22-DecArsenal v TottenhamUnder2.26Prem22-DecAston Villa v Man CityOver2.20Prem22-DecBolton v BirminghamOver2.16Prem22-DecMiddlesbrough v West HamOver2.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 22, 2007 Author Share Posted December 22, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Italy/Spain: Ita22-DecGenoa v ParmaOver2.24Ita22-DecRoma v SampdoriaOver2.34Spa22-DecAlmeria v GetafeOver2.48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 22, 2007 Author Share Posted December 22, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Well the Premiership continues to do the business in here. Shame about the rest of the leagues.... LeagueDateMatchPickOddsNetOddsScoreGoalsResultW or LBetP/LBalancePrem22-DecArsenal v TottenhamUnder2.262.202-13OverL100.00(100.00)(705.00)Prem22-DecAston Villa v Man CityOver2.202.141-12UnderL100.00(100.00)(805.00)Prem22-DecBolton v BirminghamOver2.162.103-03OverW100.00110.20(694.80)Prem22-DecMiddlesbrough v West HamOver2.302.241-23OverW100.00123.50(571.30) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 22, 2007 Author Share Posted December 22, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 23, 2007 Author Share Posted December 23, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... Prem: Prem23-DecMan Utd v EvertonOver2.16Prem23-DecNewcastle v DerbyOver2.24Prem23-DecBlackburn v ChelseaOver2.28 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted December 23, 2007 Share Posted December 23, 2007 Re: Overpaid and Underworked.... So then a 1000pt loss so far which might lead us to believe that laying the picks would be better. Well unfortunately, the curse that is betfair commission puts paid to that. Laying them all for fixed profits (ie to win 100pts on each) gives us the princely sum of 70pts loss. Summary Bets Placed 204 Units Staked 26,802.00 Units Returned 26,732.00 Profit (70.00) Yield -0.26% Strike Rate 57.84% Average Odds 2.31 Average Odds (Net) 2.25 Average Stake 131.38 I also have the data for the other outcome of each match too. So, if we backed the other outcome for fixed liability of 100pts each (ie 100pt bets) it's even worse and we get 200pt loss. Summary Bets Placed 204 Units Staked 20,400.00 Units Returned 20,199.90 Profit (200.10) Yield -0.98% Strike Rate 57.84% Average Odds 1.75 Average Stake 100.00 God damn commission. :@ Of course you could always just back the other side at a book like pinny where the odds are generally as good as an exchange. Maybe leave out the prem and carry on what you are doing haha! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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