Dale Cooper Posted November 4, 2007 Share Posted November 4, 2007 Obviously I don't expect people to give away their secrets and all that but I'm just interested as to how you actually begin your system. First, do you just get an idea (say, teams that haven't conceded a goal in the last 3 games and you want a system to back them to keep a clean sheet in the next game) and just work from there? And secondly, how do you go about backtesting something like that - is there an enormous amount of data inputting to be done? I'm just curious as to how you all go about it as I want to create one for myself sometime soon (can't be relying on those 'hunches' anymore!). Cheers :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted November 4, 2007 Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Starting a system? I get a lot of inspiration from these threads, there are some very clever people posting systems on here, & it seems that many punters take elements from various different systems to cobble together a whole new one for themselves. For any system it pays to have some good foundations, like a ratings system. I have found Paul Ross's ratings very helpful along with the RFO ratings. Then experiment, do a dry run (paper test) until you fine tune things & find out what works for you, if you have the patience & discipline (which I don't!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dale Cooper Posted November 4, 2007 Author Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Starting a system? Yeah Bedlam, I can imagine that a lot of work goes in to these sort of things. Anyone able to help me here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted November 4, 2007 Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Starting a system? my systems basically begin with those hunches - then its a case of seeing how the stats fit the possibilities and trial running. Most fail, but whether thats down to what their based on or how they are developed is another issue. if you're keeping records of your bets, have a good look through them and see if there are any patterns or successes that may be worth pursuing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dale Cooper Posted November 4, 2007 Author Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Starting a system? Yeah I keep a good record but there's no real pattern developing to be honest with you. I'm just getting worried at the moment as I've been on a decent enough run but they've just been hunches and not actually down to any systemised approach. Take this as an example: Premiership Unbeaten in the last 3 games Have scored in last 3 games Have won 2 of their last 5 games How would you go about starting the research for that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted November 4, 2007 Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Starting a system? I'm just getting worried at the moment as I've been on a decent enough run but they've just been hunches and not actually down to any systemised approach. not necessarily a bad thing - for some systems provide better long term gains than hunches/individualised picks and other vice versa Take this as an example: Premiership Unbeaten in the last 3 games Have scored in last 3 games Have won 2 of their last 5 games How would you go about starting the research for that? tbh these arent the kind of things that would start me looking at the stats but you could simply measure up what these stats then produced in relation to home/draw/away, whether the named team won/lost etc. For the more statistical minded there is the option of putting these results into a statistical test to measure the strength of these figures (i remember its to do with standard deviation but will need someone else to explain). thats just my initial thoughts and everyone will be different. dont be afraid to have a go paper trialing - we all start somewhere and if it worked first time then none of us would be here looking at what everyone else is doing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted November 4, 2007 Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Starting a system? dont be afraid to have a go paper trialing - we all start somewhere and if it worked first time then none of us would be here looking at what everyone else is doing! Very true. And some of the best lay systems start life as an idea for a backing system and vice versa!! :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dale Cooper Posted November 4, 2007 Author Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Starting a system? Sorry aliando but can you give me an example of what would get you to start looking at some stats? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted November 5, 2007 Share Posted November 5, 2007 Re: Starting a system? I started with something called bookies'r'bust. Decided it was not as good as it claimed, removed a few bits, altered a few bits and then this season totally revamped the way I did things but still using the same principles that the original methods had given me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted November 5, 2007 Share Posted November 5, 2007 Re: Starting a system? Sorry aliando but can you give me an example of what would get you to start looking at some stats? i'd try and look at things that arent easily stat searchable such as trying to find patterns of why teams were beaten (eg playing another game within 3-4 days, playing after a cup match, away team travelling over x miles) - then i might find something that'll lead me down another path and follow my nose. for example, in the horse racing I looked at laying horses due to official ratings being too high (imo) and then looked at other ratings and then with different number of horses within the field... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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