Trading Under 2.5 goals in first ten minutes

[Sco]

All, I am going to start doing some very small stakes trading in the over / unders market (2.5 goals). I'm at the same time as this doing some statistics on these games and am trying to develop a statistical method of choosing which games to pick. For now though, most of the picks will be dependant on form and goals scored in the previous few games. All picks are going to be done on Betfair, so lets see how it goes.... Pick 1 Reading V Derby There could well be a few goals in this as both defences are not great. However I'll be looking to trade out after around 10 minutes / 15 minutes. Dependant on how the game goes I may take £10 out after ten minutes & keep £10 in until the 20 minute mark, but I will see how the match pans out first. £20 staked on Under 2.5 goals @ 2.06 As said before this is a TEST so I wouldn't put any money on this until it's proven! Sco

[Datapunter]

Re: Trading Under 2.5 goals in first ten minutes Good luck Sco :ok Considering this is a test only i'm happy to let you run with it. As long as all intended bets are posted before the event anyone can follow the market themselves and that makes it verifyable. When your going from Test into Real life you'll need to do a bit more; the rulez: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=35636

[staffy]

Re: Trading Under 2.5 goals in first ten minutes Good luck with the trial Sco

[Sco]

Re: Trading Under 2.5 goals in first ten minutes Datapunter, Thanks. Yes I will post all the markets prior to the games and state the odds & time that I make the trade. Should I make it a 'real life' system, then I will send screen shots or whatever you need. I am putting money on this, but only small stakes! Andy

[Sco]

Re: Trading Under 2.5 goals in first ten minutes Layed out at 1.88 (stake £20) after 13 minutes so decided to go with a free bet on the unders which will give me £3.60 (exc. commission) if it stays under 3 goals. Next bet: Liverpool V Spurs I fancy this one to be tight early on as both teams have a bit to prove after thier last couple of performances. Again I will probably get out of this one around the ten minute mark hopefully. £20 staked on Under 2.5 goals @ 2.08

[Sco]

Re: Trading Under 2.5 goals in first ten minutes I traded £10 of the £20 by laying @ 1.9 after 10 minutes! I am holding onto the rest to see if it will stay at 1-0 until half time, and then see how the market goes.

[Sco]

Re: Trading Under 2.5 goals in first ten minutes Managed to get some more money out, but ended up £5 down on that one - some very poorly timed goals from spurs! Anyway, will post up results and more selections soon. Sco

[Sco]

Re: Trading Under 2.5 goals in first ten minutes Ok, First game after commission gave me a £3.42 profit, where as the Liverpool game cost me £5.00 Going to keep it going - will be placing £20 on the Lazio V AC Milan game as I think that should be a close and tight game, Will see how the game goes, but will post up my intentions. Sco

[Sco]

Re: Trading Under 2.5 goals in first ten minutes Bet 3 Lazio V AC Milan £20 @ 1.81. I'll be looking to trade out £10 at between 10-20 minutes. If still 0-0 may try and wait to half time. Sco

[Sco]

Re: Trading Under 2.5 goals in first ten minutes Again, only managed to get £10 out of that one, so lost again - the encouraging this is that I would have won all of these bets if I stuck to the first ten minutes only. My greediness is getting me nowhere! I am going to compile a spreadsheet over the next week or so, on how many goals go in the first ten minutes, and the % drop in price. The only thing is I'm not 100% sure what information I need to gather? Obviously there needs to be odds at ten minutes before KO, at KO and ten minutes in. Is there anything else people think would be useful to build in? Sco for the record going to place £20 on the QPR game tonight, and DEFINATELY going to get out at 10 minutes.