Doncaster Saturday 15/09

[bowles10]

3.15 ST LEGER Aiden O'brien will not hear of defeat for HONOLULU tomorrow & the current 9/4 available looks big. O'Brien has won this 3 times in the last 6 years. He has 4 of the 10 runners in the race. Runner up in the ebor to the handicap snip Purple moon, my selection ran really well that day having to give 10lb away to its older rival. Great race for favs also with 8 of last 10 all winning. Lucarno has the derby form but has something to prove over this longer distance.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09 2.40 DONCASTER-TABARET E/W 20/1--QADAR E/W 33/1 Likely Portland favs Gift Horse and Fantasy Believer have obvious chances but two at bigger odds that i'll back are TABARET in good form and deserves to win a race like this and QADAR no wins on turf but ran a sound enough race here on last vist and may well go close at a nice price.

[Woodie]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09 2.10 One Great Cat e/w Looks a nice little group 2 race looking wide open River Proud sets the standard only beaten a kneck by Winker Watson lto. Tajdeef is welll regarded by the trainer and a 5 length win on his debut was most impressive. Surprised to see McCartney drop back in strip after winning 2 from 2 over the mile. Strike the deal beat One Great cat by 2 lengths and a half lto but gives a couple of lbs away for that win (2nd has gone onto win since). Lucifer Sam has some solid form and hasn't been beaten that far by a couple of top 2 year olds this season should go well on ground that will be fine. But I prefer the other O'brian runner One great cat who took my eye when winning his maiden on heavy another by storm cat fast ground ideal stepped up in trip again will suit forecast 12/1 looks a nice bet on conditions that will be spot on. 3.15 Macarthur (nap) Doesn't look the strongest leger of all time but it promises to be a fascinating contest. Honolulu 2nd in the Ebor and now fav for today's group 1 at least with the fav we know the trip isn't a problem but I can' be backing a horse that was 2nd in a handicap at 5/2 for a classic. Even though it is Aidans first string. Mahler won easy enough at Royal Ascot over 2 miles (had veracity in 2nd) after that was fav for the leger for a bit until his last run when flopping but the trip was totally wrong back up in trip today and fast ground will be spot on should run a huge race with Mick Kinane on board hard to see out of the placings. Lucarno won the great voltiguer trial last month and had Acapulco, Macarthur and Mahler held behind him but pedigree doesn't show much stamina and has had a long hard season this could be one race to many. Regal Flush another horse coming from handicapping in form trainer and top jockey and we know he stays as he won last Saturday but huge step up in class will have to improve a lot more. Samuel interesting contender still a maiden this actually went in the notebook when 3rd at Newmarket ran on really well. Got ridden to sleep a couple week back in a listed race but does stay and could go well as the big outsider def up on the shortlist. Macarthur ran a blinder 3rd behind Lucarno lto that was his 1st run back after a 3 months layoff stayed on very nicely that day and you would expect that these even more improvement to come. Ballydoyle always talked this horse up at the beginning of the season and I think this is the one to upset the fav Soumillon takes the ride I just hope he keeps him covered up and produces him at the right time. Wouldn't surprise me at all if Aidan had another 123 in a group 1 you could even have a small bet on the tri cast.

[bowles10]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09 posted this today in the friday thread to advise others about the draw bias the 1st 7 home in the last race Thursday over 6f were drawn 12 or higher. Apparently they may be watering that side of the track tonight as the bias was so bad. It was over 5.5L before stall 7 came into the frame in 8th place. that is some bias. On wednesday in the 2yo sprint, Dream eater was the only low number to finish in 1st 5 with the next 4 drawn 20, 13, 18, 19 This was top performance by the winner & it must be followed. Firstly the Portland Handicap has already been drawn for Saturday. Taking into account the bias, these are high numbers: 22 Tabaret 25/1 21 Fullandby 20/1 20 Oreintor 25/1 19 Lipocco 12/1 18 qadar 40/1 17 Fantsay believer 8/1 16 Green manalishi 25/1 15 River Falcon 20/1 I stick by the fact after seeing the 5f race today with the 9 stall wining & then the next 4 home all drawn 11+ in a field of 17. I've actually backed River Falcon as i thibk the race could be set up for it as it likes to come on the scene late to just win by a nose! Fullandby would prefer a bit of cut, Lipocco will blaze a trail in front but cant win off this mark so a place beckons. Last years winner Fantasy believer 3 wins at this time last year deserves to head the betting & will go close. River Falcon, i feel has already beaten hoh hoh hoh & Buchail Dona & with the draw favoured should get the cover to pounce late on. If i were the jockey i would plough the same route as Intervision did today, midway across the stands side of the track.

[Carl]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09 MACARTHUR 3.15 Doncaster Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (Group 1) The one to beat is Honalulu but Im going to have a good E/W on O'Briens other runner. Full brother to Motivator he showed plenty of promise at York LTO when 3rd to Lucarno staying on ( I dont think Lucarno will stay if they go off a fast pace). He's fresh and he's bred to stay this extra trip. 6/1 at time of writing but I dont think it will last

[Carl]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09 HOH HOH HOH 4.55 Doncaster A solid E/W, very consistant and been running well off a higher mark, drops back down in the ratings to a very handy mark. J Murtagh takes the ride and seems confident of finishing in the money.16/1

[Carl]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09 :clap great write ups Woodie:ok

[Carl]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09 RIVER PROUD 2.10 Doncaster Only a nk to Winker Waston LTO who many people regard as the best juvenile in the UK at the moment.Wont have to come on much for that to land this. Early price: 11/4

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09 I wont see any of this live today for obvious reasons but: 2.10 Atlantic Sport is very very interesting. Won on debut at Ascot and even though it was only a short head it looked good value for that win as the jockey was so easy on it. I expect lots of improvement from this one and it has been backed for the 2000 Guineas next year. 2.40 Gift Horse for me e.w at the least at around 7/1. Extremely unlucky LTO when easily the best horse that day ( some re oppose today) and terribly blocked off. That was its first run for a while in a race it was capable of a realistic chance of winning and a similarly good chance today. I do not think drawn in 13 i stoo bad either. 3.15 I hate to jump on the bandwaggon but surely the value in this race is Macarthur and at around 7/1 as it is now it is e.w value too. Honolulu is no price whatsoever and looks to be a bit tricky. I expect Marcarthur needed the run most in the York race LTO and looks the stayer from that race. I am not even convinced Lucarno truly stays 12f. Mahler and Veracity look to want even further and Regal Flush has outside clamis but must improve. Macarthur at 7/1 could be an e.w steal. 3.50 Wake up Maggie. Very impressed at Goodwood two starts ago in a pretty good race and had excuses with the ground LTO. Definite chances here. 4.20 Al Muheer. Some potential improvers who could be dangerous but Al Muheer has some pretty solid form with the likes of say Dan Tucket, it won LTO and imo is the one they all have to beat here. 4.55 Lake Poet e.w Could be a big price here. Has to give some weight to leading fancies but no doubt deserves to give weight considering some really good runs against Championship Point for one. A bit unlucky in the Ebor but the trip down today should be ideal and place claims at least. Finally 5.30 Vortex e.w at a price. Big weight but similarlt to Lake Poet in many ways deserves that weight. Good consistant runs for a while now with the Royal Hunt Cup being a stand out from a bad draw. Had big excuses in the Goodwood pile up LTO.

[jtw1]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09 TAJDEEF - 2.10 - Based purely on BARRY HILLS record in this GRP 2 event . When a horse from his stable starts either FAV or 2nd FAV it has produced 3 winners , 3 x 3rd's and 1 x unp from the last 10 runnings TAJDEEF looks like starting 2nd FAV today and like HILL'S last winner of this , ETLAAL , won a NEWBURY MAIDEN LTO.

[mowgli77]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09 St Leger 3.15 Doncaster Previous winners have usually had some sort of winning form or placed form at group level so Honolulu for me is too short after a run in a handicap that everyone is raving on about. It's definitely a class horse but is it good enough to go from class 2 to Group 1 Classic race? Lucarno has some solid form, beating many of these last time out in a group 2 race and running on well. A big danger if it gets the extra 2f. It also has form behind Boscobel, Papal Bull and Authorized which is also pretty solid. It beat MacArthur but that looks like it may improve for the step up in trip and has gone straight to group races after its maiden. It's likely to improve and needs to to get involved. Raincoat got to within 4 lengths of Authorized in the Dante and always looked like it would get better over further. Another that looks like it needs to improve but also could be better than the bare form. Of the others Veracity could be interesting as it has got placed over 2m behind Allegretto and that has run well since boosting that form. Arabian Gleam/Duff 3.50 Doncaster If ever there has been an unlucky loser it has been Arabian Gleam, bumped last time out when making ground and still progressing the right way in a group 2 under Seb Sanders. Has Jonny Murtagh on board today and provided he gets a clear run will be there at the finish. Duff has had plenty of runs but finally seems to be getting the hang of racing, quickening last time out and battling gamely. The booking of Ryan Moore is a big plus and this is also backed in due to it being a Pricewise horse. Ancien Regime 4.20 Doncaster Won its maiden in fine style and reportedly looked well in the paddock. Trainer says it will only have one more run this year and has aimed it at this class 2 race with it likely to be group class next year. Won in good style, going away but on good to soft ground. Likely favourite and likely winner if this good to firm suits it. The Illies 5.30 Doncaster Has won two class 2 races in fine style for William Buick who takes the ride again today. Has only gone up 6lbs and that is not enough to stop the hat trick. Worthy favourite, has won over the distance and on good to firm ground previously. Won going away and looked an abvious winner next time it turned out if handicapper was not too harsh and 6lbs extra will be fine.

[stewartd14]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	2.10 Doncaster
Selection	River Proud
Strength	10/10
Date	15/09/2007
Bookmaker/Price	>William Hill @ SP (Back)
Reasoning	Paul Cole clearly thought highly of River Proud first time out when he was entered in a good Class 3 maiden at Newbury. He duly bolted up that day and looked a nice horse. He was then stepped up to a competitive Group 2 at Newmarket. He went off a well fancied 4/1 shot and ran very respectively. He was only beaten a sht hd by the very talented Winker Watson. If he can reproduce that form he will take all the beating today.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	2.40 Doncaster
Selection	Pearly Wey (Each-Way)
Strength	5/10
Date	15/09/2007
Bookmaker/Price	>William Hill @ SP (Back)
Reasoning	A very competitive handicap but Pearly Wey caught my eye when winning a couple of weeks ago. He used to pull for his head as a 3 year old and looked a tricky customer. However, Clive Cox has brought him back strong as a 4 year old and he has been running consistently. He has racked up 2 nice wins and looks good again today. He should get a strong pace and I think he will go close.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	3.15 Doncaster
Selection	Honolulu
Strength	8/10
Date	15/09/2007
Bookmaker/Price	>William Hill @ SP (Back)
Reasoning	Aiden O Briens record in the St LEger is there for all to see and I think he will take it again today. His most fancied runner is Jonny Murtagh's mount Honolulu. His form cant really be disputed as he ran really nicely off of top weight in the ebor against older horses. That was very impressive for a 3 year old. I think he will be back at home amongst his own age group and should go close. The distance wont be a worry as he was staying on well in the Ebor.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	3.15 Doncaster
Selection	Macarthur
Strength	5/10
Date	15/09/2007
Bookmaker/Price	>William Hill @ SP (Back)
Reasoning	As with Honolulu, Aiden O Brien's record in the race is superb recently and I think Macarthur will get close to his other runner, Honolulu. He was very highly thought of at the start of the season but dissapopinted in a Derby trial. That ruled him out of the derby, where he was ante post favourite. He returned from an absence with a decent run over 1m 4f at York last time. I think the step up in trip should suit and he will go close.

:ok:ok

[bowles10]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09 the draw strikes again!! Did you listen? Fullandby 21 Paradise isle 11 Pearly wey 14 Orpsie boy 12 Gift horse 13 anything below 10 was running for the bookies i'm afriad. You have to consider this where there is such an obvious bias as this week. My selection River Falcon drawn 15 snatched up behind horses 3 times & still finished about 6th, a bit unlucky there.

[Football-Tipper]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09 Leger Going for Mahler to overturn Lucarno here Mahler to win Mahler Lucarno RFC

[bowles10]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09 great call F-T Lucarno bts Mahler :nana

[Football-Tipper]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09 Ta would have been better the other way round but im not complaining :)

[Woodie]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09 Was wrong about Lucarno staying fair play won very nicely in the end :clap Don't know what Soumillon was doing on Macarthur thought that was travelling very well down the straight!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Football-Tipper]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09 3:50 Going for Wake Up Maggie to make the step upto Gd2 Ground will be ideal.. Wake Up Maggie To win Wake Up Maggie to beat Duff

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09 My tips were about as good as us today.

[Woodie]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09 No luck in the Leger for me but One great Cat ran on to get 3rd surprised the sp was so big at 25/1 :eek

[mowgli77]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 15/09

the draw strikes again!! Did you listen? Fullandby 21 Paradise isle 11 Pearly wey 14 Orpsie boy 12 Gift horse 13 anything below 10 was running for the bookies i'm afriad. You have to consider this where there is such an obvious bias as this week. My selection River Falcon drawn 15 snatched up behind horses 3 times & still finished about 6th, a bit unlucky there.

I went to Donny before the revamp and it was the same then. Only just watched yesterdays racing and when push came to shove the stands side looked to have about a 3 length advantage and it was definitely due to draw bias rather than just a strong gallop that side. Thought Lucarno won well but Honolulu ran a fine race stepping up from handicap company, as did Regal Flush and well done to Jimmy Fortune on his 1st classic winner. :)