short priced fourfold & a nice single - indepth

[Guest mike2283]

i know that there is already a thread discussing the short priced 'bankers' for saturday's qualifying matches although most of the comments seem to be first thoughts without much info to back up their opinions. i have looked into the games in more detail and have found a foufold that comes in at around 2.25 and also a tasty single at 1.80 my bets are based very strongly on how teams faired in world cup qualifying as it is an identical contest and friendly results and to an extent world cup results are of little use to me. any comments or information which you think would be valuable to be is very welcome. :) TURKEY - slovakia these teams were in the same qualifying group for the world cup last year. early on the campaign slovakia held turkey to a 1-1 draw in turkey. IMO many shocks in international football are down to complacency and following that result there is no danger of turkey being complacent when these teams meet on saturday. not surprisingly turkey won in slovakia the next year. after coming third in the world cup the whole of turkish football is on a high and everybody expects and demands a comfortable victory. it will also be important for turkey not to concede any early ground to england HOLLAND - belarus for dick advocaat and holland this is an opportunity to show the world what they were missing in the far east in the summer and the best way to do that is a comfortable victory against the eastern europeans. it was holland's results against ireland and portugal which cost them world cup qualification but their results against the other teams in the group (andorra, cyprus and estonia) were faultless - winning every game at a canter both home and away. numerous people have commented on how much better belarus are than many people think and whilst i agree that they are a decent, improving side they are simply not in holland's class. cyprus - FRANCE like holland, france have a new coach and an awful lot to prove. france have very little qualifying form to look at although it is clear that cyprus have crummbled when the big boys come to town. during the qualifying for the world cup they lost at home 4-0 to holland, 4-0 to ireland and 3-1 to portugal. following the fierce criticism from back home after the world cup, france know that anything less than a convincing win and they will absolutly slaugtered by the media. lithuania - GERMANY everything in german football seems great again after their performance in the world cup. germany won in albania, greece and england during world cup qualifying and should dispose of lithuania without much fuss. they did fail to win in finland but they are of a much better standard than the lithunanians. lithuania lost at home, 4-0 to Georgia, 6-1 to hungary, 2-1 to romania. however they did manage to hold italy at home but the germans are much more likely to put in a disciplined, professional performance and grind out a result than the italiens. TURKEY/HOLLAND/FRANCE/GERMANY @ 2.25 (ladbrokes) 5pts ------------------------------ russia - IRELAND ireland go into this game on the back of a fantastic world cup and an equally impressive 3-0 victory in Finland. russia on the other hand go into this game on the back of a poor world cup and it is now clear to us all that they are no longer the force in world football that they once were. ireland managed to grind out draws away from home at both holland and portugal and i see no reason why they can't get at least a draw in moscow. russia failed to beat either slovenia or yuoglasiva during their qualifying campaign at home and at the world cup failed to beat belgium or japan - all teams who are arguably worse than the irish. LAY RUSSIA @ 2.80 (betfair) 5pts

[Guest Pat the Baker]

Re: short priced fourfold & a nice single - indepth Good Post Mike. I will be going with Germany and Holland. I have concerns over the France + Turkey games, but small concerns at that. Last year I'd be tempted to go with them but this year any sort of concern and I am leaving them out. Mike, have you thought about Holland/Holland HT/FT. works out at 1/2. I expect a backlash from the Dutch, their fans want it, the manager wants it and the players are out to prove the world that they are world class. I'm going with Germany/Holland HT/FT - 1.88 - very confident To add to this, my concerns are with the fact that Cyprus are no longer push overs and after seeing 4 of their last 6 games are due a big result. They led Portugal for 60mins in a must win game for Portugal, they played brillant against the Irish and Northern Ireland. In Windsor they had a B team out. Throw in the poor performance by France in the WC. France will probably win it, maybe walk it, but at some stage Cyprus are going to pull a result out of the bag. As for Turkey I've burnt myself before with them, its a personnal thing/concern maybe.

[Guest johnny]

be careful of laying Russia As a keen follower of Russian football, I would advise caution regarding the Russia v Ireland Match. The Russians have a very impressive record at home, and although confidence of the home crowd is low at the moment, they are by no means pushovers. Ireland did not do as well in the WC as many think (look at how many matches they actually won). The fires around Moscow have started to die down, so the thick smoke and smog should lifted by the time of the match. To be honest, I never understand Western teams arranging away fixtures in Russia during Summer/early Autumn. If the match is arranged for Winter, then the fixture has to be moved to another country due to the Russian stadia being closed because of the ice, and Russia lose home advanatge. My advise, always avoid matches involving Russia. There has been a spate of dodgy results domestically due to betting scams, and although I hope this has not passed onto the national set-up, I fear for any bet.

[Guest mike2283]

Re: be careful of laying Russia thanks lads. i now think i'll leave russia although i'm still going to keep france. input much apprecitated :)

[Guest mike2283]

Re: be careful of laying Russia thanks to johnny i saved a bit of money by leaving the ireland bet alone. :) i did go for the acca that i initially mentioned and barring a belarus comeback that has won so a tidy profit to make up for my domestic losses (crewe).

[Guest Pat the Baker]

Re: be careful of laying Russia Well Done Mike. Had my bet up as well.