Rugby - Wales v Argentina (18th Aug)

[Wumpking]

Wales face Argentina on Saturday 18th August (2:30pm BST). Teams are: Wales: 15 Kevin Morgan (Dragons), 14 Dafydd James (Scarlets), 13 Tom Shanklin (Blues), 12 Gareth Thomas (Blues, captain), 11 Mark Jones (Scarlets), 10 James Hook (Ospreys), 9 Dwayne Peel (Scarlets), 8 Alix Popham (Scarlets), 7 Martyn Williams (Blues), 6 Jonathan Thomas (Ospreys), 5 Ian Evans (Ospreys), 4 Ian Gough (Ospreys), 3 Adam Jones (Ospreys), 2 Matthew Rees (Scarlets), 1 Duncan Jones (Ospreys) Replacements: 16 T Rhys Thomas (Blues), 17 Gethin Jenkins (Blues), 18 Alun-Wyn Jones (Ospreys), 19 Colin Charvis (Dragons), 20 Mike Phillips (Ospreys), 21 Ceri Sweeney (Dragons), 22 Jamie Robinson (Blues) Planet Rugby considers the Welsh side selected to be "much more like Wales' first choice side". Argentina:15 Federico Serra (San Isidro), 14 Lucas Borges (Stade Français), 13 Martín Gaitán (Biarritz), 12 Felipe Contepomi (Leinster), 11 Ignacio Corleto (Stade Français), 10 Federico Todeschinin(Montpellier), 9 Agustín Pichot (Stade Français) (captain), 8 Gonzalo Longo (Clermont Auvergne), 7 Juan Fernández Lobbe (Sale Sharks), 6 Juan Manuel Leguizamón (London Irish), 5 Patricio Albacete (Toulouse), 4 Ignacio Fernández Lobbe (Sale Sharks), 3 Martín Scelzo (Clermont Auvergne), 2 Mario Ledesma (Clermont Auvergne), 1 Rodrigo Roncero (Stade Français). Replacements: 16 Alberto Vernet Basualdo (Alumni), 17 Santiago González Bonorino (Capitolina), 18 Rimas Álvarez Kairelis (Perpignan), 19 Martín Durand (Montpellier), 20 Nicolás Vergallo (Jockey), 21 Manuel Contepomi (Newman), 22 Horacio Agulla (Hindú) A powerful pack but sadly no Hernandez in the backs. Planet Rugby considers the Argentina selection "perhaps not a full side but certainly a strong one". The Welsh forwards could be in for another torrid time here. Recent results between the 2 sides are as follows:

17/06/2006	Argentina	45 - 27	Wales
11/06/2006	Argentina	27 - 25	Wales
19/06/2004	Argentina	20 - 35	Wales
12/06/2004	Argentina	50 - 44	Wales
10/11/2001	Wales	16 - 30	Argentina

Wales have won just one of the last 5 games between the two, whilst they also lost the last time they played in Cardiff. Wales currently are 8th with 75.61 points on the IRB ratings whilst Argentina are 5th with 82.43. The IRB 'handicap' home sides by treating them as being 3 points stronger than their current rating. If we assume this equates to the traditional 6 - 7 points home advantage is considered to be then Wales, in theory, should lose to Argentina by 8 to 9 points. Based purely on the ratings, prices would probably be somewhere in the region of: Wales @ 3.37 Argentina @ 1.31 Draw @ 25.00 The few Bookie prices currently available for the match are: Wales @ 1.66 to 1.78 Argentina @ 2.17 to 2.20 Draw @ 23.0 No value here at all backing Wales. Argentina however, look fantastic value at 2.20 which is a massive 68% above the price forecast based on the ratings assessment. In this respect, a 5 point maximum bet on Argentina @ 2.20 with Betandgame is the call.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby - Wales v Argentina (18th Aug) Good analysis, Argentina are certainly the value here, but I just have a funny feeling Wales might pull something out of the bag (perhaps it's delluded optimism?) anyway, no bet for me on this.