staffy Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 I will looking to back teams that are on a losing run but due a win. I have not trialed this or backdated this at all. I will also use a martingale staking plan when I back the team again. I will not back anyone who is in the bottom 5 of their league. They also need a fairly even win to loss ratio. This is for small stakes and see how it goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge Bet 1 Sweden 2nd Division Hacken V Landskrona Selection = Hacken Odds 2.22 Stake £2 Potentiol return £2.32 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge good luck mate - have you decided on any cut off point should the martingale have a bad run? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge good luck mate - have you decided on any cut off point should the martingale have a bad run? Probably just 3 bets per team mate. I would like to think a team that a team that has a rough 50/50 SR will win in the 3 games. Especially as they have not won in the 2 games before that before the 1st bet. This is very low stakes though. There will obviously become more bets as the main seasons get going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge Bet Team Date Odds Staked Total Staked Wins Return Total p/l Next Play SR Yield 1 Hackens 13/08/2007 £2.22 £2.00 £2.00 1 £2.32 £2.32 Not needed 100.00% 116.00% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge good start mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge good start mate! Cheers. Still early days though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge No bets tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 14, 2007 Author Share Posted August 14, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge Potential bet tomorrow is Kawasaki from Japan 1. I am requesting 2.3 on betfair but earlies tomorrow so depends if i get matched. Very doubtful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 15, 2007 Author Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge Bet Team Date Odds Staked Total Staked Wins Return Total p/l Next Play SR Yield 1 Hackens 13/08/2007 2.22 £2.00 £2.00 1 £2.32 £2.32 Not needed 100.00% 116.00% 2 Kawasaki 15/08/2007 2.30 £2.00 £2.55 1 £0.00 £0.32 18/08/2007 50.00% 0.00% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 16, 2007 Author Share Posted August 16, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge I have realised that there are far too many leagues out there and not enough time for me to do them. I have decided to just at the moment stick to the English leagues. If I find I am not getting enough games I will add the main euro leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge Tomorrows Bets. Bet Team Date Odds Staked Total Staked 1 Reading 18/08/2007 2.66 £2.00 £2.00 2 Birmingham 18/08/2007 2.50 £2.00 £4.00 3 Portsmouth 18/08/2007 2.00 £2.00 £6.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted August 17, 2007 Share Posted August 17, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge :hopeGood Luck for tomorrow mate.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge :hopeGood Luck for tomorrow mate.:ok Thanks mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge Bet Team Date Odds Staked Total Staked Wins Return Total p/l Next Play SR Yield 1 Reading 18/08/2007 2.66 £2.00 £2.00 1 £3.16 £3.16 100.00% 158.00% 2 Birmingham 18/08/2007 2.50 £2.00 £4.00 2 -£2.00 £1.16 25/08/2007 100.00% 29.00% 3 Portsmouth 18/08/2007 2.00 £2.00 £6.00 3 £1.90 £3.06 100.00% 51.00% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge Correction to above Bet Team Date Odds Staked Total Staked Wins Return Total p/l Next Play SR Yield 1 Reading 18/08/2007 2.66 £2.00 £2.00 1 £3.16 £3.16 100.00% 158.00% 2 Birmingham 18/08/2007 2.50 £2.00 £4.00 1 -£2.00 £1.16 25/08/2007 50.00% 29.00% 3 Portsmouth 18/08/2007 2.00 £2.00 £6.00 2 £1.90 £3.06 66.67% 51.00% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge Although Birmingham would technically go to bet 2 it is now dropped from system as they are in bottom 3. No bets tomorrow or for next few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 20, 2007 Author Share Posted August 20, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge This weeks bets. 4 Weymouth 23/08/2007 2.5 + 5 Histon 24/08/2007 2.4 + 6 Sunderland 25/08/2007 7+ 7 Man UTD 25/08/2007 1.4* 8 Bristol City 25/08/2007 1.9+ 9 Charlton Athletic 25/08/2007 1.7+ 10 Hull City 25/08/2007 2.5+ 11 Leicester 25/08/2007 2.5+ 12 Sheff United 25/08/2007 2.2+ 13 Doncaster 25/08/2007 1.67+ 14 Northampton 25/08/2007 2.3+ 15 Nottingham Forest 25/08/2007 2.15 16 Bradford 25/08/2007 1.8+ 17 Brentford 25/08/2007 1.7+ 18 Grimsby 25/08/2007 1.80 19 MK Dons 25/08/2007 1.9+ 20 Crawley 25/08/2007 1.9+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 23, 2007 Author Share Posted August 23, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge 4 Weymouth 23/08/2007 2.72 £2.00 £8.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted August 23, 2007 Share Posted August 23, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge Nice work so far! I've seen this done on US sports where teams are generally more evenly matched, but with football in particular I'd expect some teams to go on long runs without winning at some point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 23, 2007 Author Share Posted August 23, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge Nice work so far! I've seen this done on US sports where teams are generally more evenly matched' date=' but with football in particular I'd expect some teams to go on long runs without winning at some point.[/quote'] Yeah could happen mate and I also expect it to. However 1st bet is after at least 2 games where they have not won. Most teams I bet on will be teams that have a 50/50 win to lose rate. I will dump them after 3 bets or if they drop way down the league. All very experimental and low stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted August 23, 2007 Share Posted August 23, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge Yeah could happen mate and I also expect it to. However 1st bet is after at least 2 games where they have not won. Most teams I bet on will be teams that have a 50/50 win to lose rate. I will dump them after 3 bets or if they drop way down the league. All very experimental and low stakes. Best of luck :ok Swansea City are certainly due a win this weekend after totally dominating Oldham and Forest only to pick up 1 point :wall. Hopefully we can kickstart our season with a win over Walsall, I would say you should include us in your system for this weekend but I'd hate to mess it up for you :lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 23, 2007 Author Share Posted August 23, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge The sequence has to start with a home game to give myself the best of chances. I assume Swans are away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted August 23, 2007 Share Posted August 23, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge The sequence has to start with a home game to give myself the best of chances. I assume Swans are away. You assume correct, and that's a sensible criteria also :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 24, 2007 Author Share Posted August 24, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge 4 Weymouth 23/08/2007 2.72 £2.00 £8.00 2 -£2.00 £1.06 27/08/2007 50.00% 13.25% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 24, 2007 Author Share Posted August 24, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge 5 Histon 24/08/2007 2.84 2.00 £10.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 24, 2007 Author Share Posted August 24, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge 6 Sunderland 25/08/2007 6.80 £2.00 £12.00 7 Man UTD 25/08/2007 1.58 £2.00 £14.00 8 Bristol City 25/08/2007 2.18 £2.00 £16.00 9 Charlton Athletic 25/08/2007 1.85 £2.00 £18.00 10 Hull City 25/08/2007 2.46 £2.00 £20.00 11 Leicester 25/08/2007 2.76 £2.00 £22.00 12 Sheff United 25/08/2007 2.34 £2.00 £24.00 13 Doncaster 25/08/2007 1.78 £2.00 £26.00 14 Northampton 25/08/2007 2.40 £2.00 £28.00 15 Nottingham Forest 25/08/2007 2.26 £2.00 £30.00 16 Bradford 25/08/2007 2.02 £2.00 £32.00 17 Brentford 25/08/2007 1.91 £2.00 £34.00 18 Grimsby 25/08/2007 2.04 £2.00 £36.00 19 MK Dons 25/08/2007 2.18 £2.00 £38.00 20 Crawley 25/08/2007 2.08 £2.00 £40.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 24, 2007 Author Share Posted August 24, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge It is likely I will miss next weeks midweek games unless I find an internet cafe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 24, 2007 Author Share Posted August 24, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge 5 Histon 24/08/2007 2.84 £2.00 £10.00 2 -£2.00 -£0.94 bottom 5 40.00% -9.40% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 30, 2007 Author Share Posted August 30, 2007 Re: Due a win challenge 6 Sunderland 25/08/2007 6.80 £2.00 £12.00 2 -£2.00 -£2.94 33.33% -24.50% 7 Bristol City 25/08/2007 2.18 £2.00 £14.00 3 £2.24 -£0.70 42.86% -5.00% 8 Charlton Athletic 25/08/2007 1.85 £2.00 £16.00 4 £1.62 £0.92 50.00% 5.75% 9 Hull City 25/08/2007 2.46 £2.00 £18.00 5 £2.78 £3.70 55.56% 20.56% 10 Leicester 25/08/2007 2.76 £2.00 £20.00 6 £3.35 £7.05 60.00% 35.25% 11 Doncaster 25/08/2007 1.78 £2.00 £22.00 6 -£2.00 £5.05 54.55% 22.95% 12 Northampton 25/08/2007 2.40 £2.00 £24.00 6 -£2.00 £3.05 50.00% 12.71% 13 Nottingham Forest 25/08/2007 2.26 £2.00 £26.00 6 -£2.00 £1.05 46.15% 4.04% 14 Bradford 25/08/2007 2.02 £2.00 £28.00 7 £1.94 £2.99 50.00% 10.68% 15 Brentford 25/08/2007 1.91 £2.00 £30.00 8 £1.73 £4.72 53.33% 15.73% 16 Grimsby 25/08/2007 2.04 £2.00 £32.00 8 -£2.00 £2.72 50.00% 8.50% 17 MK Dons 25/08/2007 2.18 £2.00 £34.00 9 £2.24 £4.96 52.94% 14.59% 18 Crawley 25/08/2007 2.08 £2.00 £36.00 10 £2.05 £7.01 55.56% 19.47% 19 Sheff United 25/08/2007 2.34 £2.00 £38.00 11 £2.55 £9.56 57.89% 25.16% 20 Man UTD 25/08/2007 1.58 £2.00 £40.00 12 £1.10 £10.66 60.00% 26.65% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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