Rugby - England v France (11th Aug)

[Wumpking]

England play <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />France on Saturday 11th August (5:00pm BST) as both teams continue preparations for RWC 2007. The English side selected is: <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

England: Abendanon, Sackey, Noon, Catt (capt), Lewsey, Barkley, Perry, Sheridan, Regan, Stevens, Shaw, Kay, Haskell, Moody, Dallaglio

Replacements: Mears, Vickery, Corry, Worsley, Gomarsall, Wilkinson, Cipriani

Planet Rugby describe the English line up as experimental (http://www.planetrugby.com/Story/0,18259,3551_2645227,00.html). Barkley's selection at 10 looks interesting. Probably Ashton is trying out combos to cover likely void caused by Hodgson's failure to recover from injury in time for the RWC.

France have yet to name their team (due later today) but have selected a strong looking squad for the match:

Backs: Poitrenaud, Rougerie, Heymans, Clerc, Marty, Jauzion, Skrela, Michalak, Mignoni, Elissalde Forwards: Ibanez, Szarzewski, Poux, de Villiers, Milloud, Thion, Pelous, Chabal, Betsen, Martin, Nyanga, Bonnaire

Be good to see Michalak back (if he plays).

England (7th - 79.58) are curently 4 places lower than France (3rd - 85.56) on the IRB rankings. The IRB 'handicap' home sides by treating them as being 3 points stronger than their current rating. If we assume this equates to the traditional 6/7 points home advantage is considered to be then England, in theory, should lose to France by 6 to 7 points. Based purely on the ratings, prices would probably be somewhere in the region of: England @ 2.60 France @ 1.45 Draw @ 25.00 Bookie prices currently available for the match are: England @ 2.25 to 2.54 (average 2.47) France @ 1.50 to 1.61 (average 1.54) Draw @ 19.0 to 27.0 (average 20.25) In the handicap market, England can be backed with a +4 to +5 start @ 1.90. I do not feel there is any value here in backing England at these prices. France, however, offer value @ 1.61 as this is 11% above the price forecast based on the ratings assessment. With the strong French line up and weaker looking English team (primarily a 2nd string side selected with probably only 5 or so 1st team choices playing?), a 2 point bet on France @ 1.61 with Corals is the call.

[DAC]

Re: Rugby - England v France (11th Aug) Moody is out, which is sad for English fans, Worsley back in? I tend to leave games involving France well alone but will have a look at the the total points. Superb write up by the way WK!!!!!