The Yet-To-Be-Named (YTBN) System

[Rushian]

Hello all!<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

I have been lurking around this interesting forum for quite some time, but have only contributed in very few threads. I am not a very experienced punter (so go easy on me!) and this will be my first attempt at producing a system of choosing bets on football matches in the English Premiership, Championship, League 1 and 2. The selections are based on a statistical model developed (by a friend and myself) for these leagues with data since the 2003/04 season. The model uses a small number of variables, a few of which are also included in plopplop’s “Predicting the EPL using stats†thread, although I have to clarify that the model was being developed simultaneously with, yet independently of, plopplop’s (exciting) work.

A few more things about the model (stats alert!): it attempts to model the bivariate distribution of football scores, by taking into consideration explanatory variables which account for the general strength of each team, the current form, the venue etc. The distribution can be used to estimate the probability of certain scores (e.g. 0-0, 2-1, 1-3 etc) and then the probabilities of a home win (i.e 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, etc), a draw or an away win are estimated by summing up the relevant scores. The probabilities are transformed to “fair†odds, and a bet is placed if the offered odds are higher than the estimated “fair†odds (adjusted by a “safety†factor) according to the model.

This method allows for the calculation of “fair†odds regarding exact scores as well, although the overround is much higher hence it would be more difficult to find value, I guess. A possible deviation/extension of this is to use it for over/under 2.5 goals bets, although I would intuitively think that a model of total goals (rather than of football scores) should have been used in this case.

The staking plan will be 10pts per bet, and the starting bank will be 1000 pts. I plan (or should I say “hope to be ableâ€) to update the selections the day before matchday at the latest, and the results a couple of days after the last match of each group of selections. Odds will be taken from odds-comparison, and are valid at the time of posting, but I guess they may change later.

Let me make it clear that this is a paper trail. Moreover, since I don’t know exactly what the commission is for each bookmaker, I am omitting it from the results.

Wish me luck but be prepared to watch it fail spectacularly! I know I am!

Rushian :)

[Rushian]

Re: The Yet-To-Be-Named (YTBN) System Ok fingers crossed :hope:

No	Div	Date	Home Team	Away Team	Bet	Stake	Bet Odds	Bookmaker	W/L/P	Profit/Loss
1	Div0	11/8/2007	Bolton	Newcastle	H	10	2.62	Betfair	P	0.00
2	Div0	11/8/2007	Everton	Wigan	A	10	6.20	Betfair	P	0.00
3	Div0	11/8/2007	West Ham	Man City	A	10	4.10	Betfair	P	0.00
4	Div1	11/8/2007	Ipswich	Sheffield Weds	H	10	2.25	Bluesq	P	0.00
5	Div1	11/8/2007	Preston	Norwich	H	10	2.12	Betfair	P	0.00
6	Div2	11/8/2007	Nott'm Forest	Bournemouth	A	10	6.50	Skybet	P	0.00
7	Div3	11/8/2007	Peterboro	Rochdale	A	10	5.05	Portalandbet	P	0.00
8	Div0	12/8/2007	Man United	Reading	A	10	17.00	Betdaq	P	0.00

Summary Results
Starting bank:		1000.0
Current bank:		1000.0
Total amount staked:		80
	Pending stake:	80
Total number of bets:		8
	Winning bets:	0
	Losing bets:	0
	Pending bets:	8
Strike rate:
Profit (or Loss):		0.0
Yield: