Rugby - England v Wales (4th August)

[Wumpking]

The first of the northern hemisphere's warm up games for RWC 07 sees England playing Wales at Twickers on Saturday 4th August (4:00pm BST). The sides selected are: England: Cueto; Strettle, Hipkiss, Farrell, Robinson; Wilkinson, Perry; Sheridan, Regan, Vickery (capt), Shaw, Borthwick, Corry, Worsley, Easter. Replacements: Chuter, Stevens, Moody, Dallaglio, Richards, Flood, Tait. Wales: Byrne; A Brew, Shanklin, G Thomas (capt), D James; Sweeney, Cooper; I Thomas, Bennett, Horsman, W James, Sidoli, A W Jones, Charvis, Owen. Replacements: Jenkins, R Thomas, T R Thomas, Popham, Phillips, Hook, T James. Both sides selected are considered experimental by the BBC website analysis (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/6928485.stm) although Planet Rugby's analysis considers England to have more of a settled look to it (http://www.planet-rugby.com/Story/0,18259,3551_2638310,00.html), and conclude their analysis by predicting that England will have too much class for an experimental Welsh outfit and will win by 12 points. Both sides enter the game in poor form as per their results during the 6 Nations and respective summer tours. England (78.93) are curently 1 place higher than Wales (76.26) on the IRB rankings. The IRB 'handicap' home sides by treating them as being 3 points stronger than their current rating. If we assume this equates to the traditional 6/7 points home advantage is considered to be then England, in theory, should beat Wales by 11-13 points. Current outright prices are pretty much in line with both these predictions: England @ 1.11 to 1.20 (average 1.14) Wales @ 4.50 to 7.20 (average 5.36) Draw @ 23.0 to 44.0 (average 26.81) Similarly in the handicap market, England are with a -14 to -15 point start @ 1.90, although you can get a stand out -14 @ 2.00 with Bet365. Whilst it is highly likely an 'experimental' looking Welsh side could get thumped here (indeed, I was at the last RWC warm game in 2003 between the two sides in which Wales were humiliated at the Millennium Stadium by 9 - 43), against an out of form English side they are capable of staying within touch of the handicap despite being written off (as per 1st test v Australia). However, as there seems limited margin for error here and very little value, for me therefore the outcome is No Bet. No matter what the result, Welsh supporters should definitely check out http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=am8eVKQ5Pl0&NR=1 which should cheer us up wherever, whenever, whatever.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby - England v Wales (4th August) If I were forced to bet it'd be the -14 on England as the pack we have out is abysmal, but like you I'll be sticking clear of friendlies. That video somehow doesn't cheer me up wump, a golden age that I wasn't alive for and there won't be another one like it.