J P Spencer -0.5pts SP - retired.

[DC]

August is going to be a busy month for me. Good job I've got no plans to go away. Ok while investigating the "Lay Spencer" thread over in the other section I stumbled across some interesting findings for this young jockey via Adrian Massey's excellent database of statistics. So in contrast to that thread I shall run for very small stakes a system that follows his rides during the months of August and September. I'm prepared to let everyone in on this as it only took me about half an hour to come up with and the more thoughts the merrier. With any system I like to have as FEW rules as possible so there are options to tighten up the system with more filters - I'll leave that up to you. Ok here are the basic rules then: Horse must be ridden by J P Spencer (any trainer) August and September only NO 5f races SP of 5-1 or more ** or horse must touch 5-1 in the betting to qualify - it'd be harsh to have a horse open at 5-1, be backed into 7-2 and it NOT be a selection (there won't be many horses a day so it'll be easy to monitor this) ** Male horses only Horse must have run 5 times or less within the last 90 days You may wish to omit ground (heavy does badly) and specific courses but I'd hate him to bolt a 25-1 in at a course he does badly at etc. Happy to discuss, Danny :ok

[ZuluWarrior]

Re: J P Spencer Hi Danny, Best of luck with this, I did something similar last year (In "Some Bookies Do Ave Um") which followed Frankie Dettori and Jamie Spencer... I ended up running a different filter for Spencer depending on the type of race! From what I learned its best to stay away from Selling Stakes. Also I noticed in my study that the distance of 1m4f to 1m5f is some what of a black spot for old Jamie, don't know if thats any use to you... Your odds filter is a VERY good idea, he never seems to do well on the back of a skinny priced horse, and the Male horse filter is very interesting indeed (obviously a product of the new Massey site!) In fact, if you don't mind Danny, would you be open to me re-running my Spencer filters from last year in this thread? as kind of a comparison??? I don't really want to ressurect Some Bookies, but I'd like to see what we can find out from comparison....