Trilobite Posted July 25, 2007 Share Posted July 25, 2007 I spent most of this week coding software to download any race-card and give each horse a rating based on the form from past results. I would like your input to see if this method of rating can be improved upon. What i am doing for now is giving points for the following : Placed @ <= to todays Class = 1 pt Won @ <= to todays Class = 3 pt Placed @ todays Distance = 2 pt Placed @ todays Distance Plus 1f = 2 pt Placed @ todays Distance Minus 1f = 1 pt (stepping up in trip) Won @ todays Distance = 3 pt Won @ todays Distance Plus 1f = 2 pt Won @ todays Distance Minus 1f = 1 pt (stepping up in trip) (The above only score if the Class <= to todays race Class) Placed @ todays Course = 1 pt Won @ todays Course = 3pts (The above only score if the Class <= to todays race Class) Now the going is the hard part, as there are many differing official Goings written. But for now i have made a look up table and split the Going into 3 types: My_good = all the Good or better Goings My_soft = all the Softs or worse Goings My_standard = all the Standard Goings So, i give 5 pts for a Place @ todays Going and 8 pts for a Win. Again, no score if result was not at todays Class or Less. For now i have set the software to only do any results from the end of 2005 up-wards. ? To try and make the ratings fair i have calculated the rating as a % based on how many results were done. So a horse running every week isn't at an advantage from a lightly run one. Then i take the Trainer Stat for the course, add the Win & Place % together and Add that to the form rating. Then do the same for the Jockey Stat. This then becomes the Form Rating for each horse in the race. Testing this is interesting, but i want to know what you think about how i have set things out so far ? Would you do anything else or do the pts differently etc ? Ive included a basic spreadsheet of my testing the past couple of days so you can see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robert99 Posted July 25, 2007 Share Posted July 25, 2007 Re: Form Based Ratings T, Basically this is a good and sound way to go. Your very top horse scores 17? points. Do you mean >= ? else a horse only winning a seller can score 6? -whatever, you may have not weighted class high enough in relation to C,D etc ? Horse dropping in class - nul extra points? Class definitions can be unreliable for different "class" courses. Even Gr1 races are of huge class variation. Horse stepping up in distance can be a plus but is mostly a negative. You have to look at past form to see which. Same horse dropping back. Duplication of points if same trainer and jockey and course win points. The trainer input is already taken into account with horse's past form points. The jockey issue is probably similar duplication but again the trainer has decided which rider to put up in the past and where to run. So nothing new to add to today's race. Firm ground horses can do badly on yielding ground but do OK on heavy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trilobite Posted July 25, 2007 Author Share Posted July 25, 2007 Re: Form Based Ratings Thanks for the input Robert :ok The Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted July 25, 2007 Share Posted July 25, 2007 Re: Form Based Ratings Good luck mate, it seems a lot of work is waiting you. After a quick look: For examble: Bangor 24-Jul 19:30 Turn Card (IRE) has a rating of 100 (fav) way above others, wich looks wrong calc for a horse with only 1 place in his life. Depraux (IRE) at the same race with a rating of zero deserves some points for his 4 places. Did i miss something, am i doing something wrong? Getting the data from racecards and applying a rating is something i really like but involves a lot of work and excel knowledge, maybe after a year a try. Robert99 looks that he has already done it , results? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trilobite Posted July 25, 2007 Author Share Posted July 25, 2007 Re: Form Based Ratings Hi Dices The way i have started this is to only give points for Class or less. So for that Bangor race it was a Class 4 And Depraux has only placed at Class 6 and 5. So as i have the calculation set now it didn't score anything for form. As for Turn Card (IRE), it got 5 pts for a Place @ todays Going, and 1 pt for the Place @ todays Class. There were only 6 results checked (end of 2005 up) so the calculation was 6 points divided by 6 results X by 100 = 100% Iam open to any calculation ideas, as iam not that good at Math TBVH ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted July 25, 2007 Share Posted July 25, 2007 Re: Form Based Ratings Just an idea: Combined with class (don't know how) calc the race's price - award. The result of a 6k race will be twice importance as the result from 3k race. A 2k race will be the 2/5 of a 5k race , etc. Edit: The same can be done with distance. A 6f race is 6/12 = half important compared with a 12f race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trilobite Posted July 25, 2007 Author Share Posted July 25, 2007 Re: Form Based Ratings Price was something i hadn't considered Dices. Ive got to factor in that a lot of connections are running the Handicap Mark down too! So maybe somehow calc the last x amount of BHB ratings into my rating ? Like you said, a lot of work ahead . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted July 25, 2007 Share Posted July 25, 2007 Re: Form Based Ratings Ive got to factor in that a lot of connections are running the Handicap Mark down too! So maybe somehow calc the last x amount of BHB ratings into my rating. Sorry my English arent very well so i dont get it. A very simple rating system (if you can call it this way) i found today: http://www.drawn2win.co.uk/article26.asp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trilobite Posted July 25, 2007 Author Share Posted July 25, 2007 Re: Form Based Ratings Thanks Dices, but that wouldn't suit my rating system as he is basing his on what HE thinks, i am basing my rating on Form Facts and Stats. Keep the ideas coming though, they are appreciated :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 Re: Form Based Ratings I copy-paste from elseware: The sort of factors a ratings plan should allow for might include: Place form i.e. the places achieved in the last "x" number of races Course Winners Distance Winners Distance of the race Speed Figures Prize Money Class of Race Class of Course Handicap or Non-Handicap Trainer Jockey Going Weight Carried Odds Length of time since a win The competition i.e. how good are the other horses Etc And after the creation of the ratings, the big question: Copy-paste from the same source: Horse Ratings - Will Horses Obey The RatingsThe short answer of course is no!! Most horses simply go out on the course, and do the best they can for the jockey, who happens to be riding them. The trainer is sat on the sidelines watching, like a manager in football, he or she cannot influence anything in the race now, all the preparation has been done. All the trainer can do is sit and watch :unsure:unsure:unsure IMO there is great potential in the idea, form ratings may spot value bets. Its in my mind for a few weeks but the work involved and excel knowledgr is huge, so it is a future plan. If i can be of any help, please let me know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trilobite Posted July 26, 2007 Author Share Posted July 26, 2007 Re: Form Based Ratings Cheers Dices I see i have most of the list covered already, i will have to test the others like Prize Money, time since last Win/Place etc etc, lots of work :) You bringing up the Bangor question has reminded me of something very important that i was meant to add to the result checking routine right at the beginning, and that was to check if the result was for the same type of racing, ie Jumps or Flat . I don't know much about Excel Dices, having not really used it to any great extent before. So i cant help with anything there iam afraid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 Re: Form Based Ratings The most important thing when trialing such 'systems' is the good 'result keeping'. The 'result checking routine' has to be ready from the early beggining so only small adjustments will be needed. It has to be very detailed. May i ask what do you use for ' coding software ' as you say,since it is not excel? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trilobite Posted July 26, 2007 Author Share Posted July 26, 2007 Re: Form Based Ratings I use Microsoft Visual Basic 6, which i believe is very similar to VBA which Excel uses. So i guess i could easily write VBA routines for Excel, however i have never done so before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamblermax Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: Form Based Ratings has anyone got any more info on this system i'm sure a lot more can be done with this but i'm no good with vb may be able to do something on excel but very basic. gm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tull Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: Form Based Ratings Hi Trilobite what is your source of information? I run a macro in excel which extracts data from the UKracestats website data download. I wish I knew how to programme as the guy that I had do isnt around anymore. Plenty of stats on there, i'm able to vary the points allocated but always keep the key ones (course, Dist, going) high on my points list Happy to share ideas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamblermax Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Re: Form Based Ratings I supose one way of getting most of the info would be from The Big Purple Headed Love Muscle Hope admin don't mind i forgot it was on another forum please delete if inapropriate which has a lot of info on the spread sheet i'm going to have a go at getting it going again and see where it takes me, its such a simple method that it should work in getting the better horses to pick and hopefully the occasional outsider in the top three,anyway will give it a go. GM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tull Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Re: Form Based Ratings Gamblermax, I Cant seem to download the sheets I guess these are pretty useful? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamblermax Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Re: Form Based Ratings what comes up when you try to download them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.