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4.40 Southwell (Monday)


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4.40 Southwell NAKWA has strong claims in the last at Southwell tomorrow, judged on his last three runs. 3 runs ago he won a banded stakes race over 12f at Wolves by 8l, the form has been franked by the 3rd home LAMPOS winning next time. The time was good and there was no fluke about it. Next time he had the misfortune to run into hcap snip SENDINTANK, who has won twice since, over 12f at Southwell. He was only beaten 1.5l and pulled 6l clear of the rest. Again, the time was good and the form is solid, with the 4th home ELA RE winning over hurdles next time at 33/1. I made him a good bet on his next start, but once again he ran into a hcap snip, FALL IN LINE. He was thrashed 8l but again finished clear of the rest and the race was run in a very fast time - the winner has won all 5 of his subsequent races. Tomorrow he tackles 14f for the first time, but he's won over an extended 12f at stiff track Newcastle, so he ought to get this trip on sand. Put in at 7/2 fc fav, he looks well worth a bet. The opposition is weak - he holds LAZZAZ and ELA RE on recent form, and DELTA FORCE pulls way too hard and drawn on the outer he's going to get no cover. The rest are poor. BET STRENGTH = 2 (2pts win)

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