Chester 14/07

[bowles10]

daily selections here please :ok

[robsterling]

Re: Chester 14/07 No one else seems interested in Chester today, so thought I'd take a look at one of the races. 4:45 Chester Class 4 1m 7F 195y Soft Ground Madaarek:

• Weighted at 8-13 today won off 9-4 on two occasions, one of which was LTO (Cl 4 race).

• Has only ran on soft ground once (finished 11/19), although its last win was on good to soft, appears to run better on firmer ground with its other win and place being on GF and St going respectively.

• Has only ran at 2 furlongs shorter than today, however won decisively last time, and connections were apparently considering taking a step up in trip by 2f (and obviously have done!). Therefore distance should not be a problem.

• Trainer in decent form with 3 of his 5 favs in the last 2 weeks winning.

Nero West:

• Weighted at 9-2 today, has won off 9-2 once before (way back in April 2004) and has won off 10-13 last January although this was a maiden hurdle, jockey has a 3lb claim.

• Won lto over soft ground and its only other 2 wins have also been on the soft.

• Won lto over 16f convincingly after its first step up in trip on flat.

• Trainer in decent form with 4 winning favourites over the last 2 weeks and several each way shots landing a place.

Dr Sharp:

• Weighted at 10-0 today, has won off 10-12, although this was a maiden hurlde.

• Has been competing in a lot of CL 2 and 3 races so this is a bit of a drop down. Having said that finished dead last in Cl 4 2 races ago but was reported to being unsuited to the GF ground.

• Definitely likes the softer ground, all its wins and places have come at Gd going or softer.

• LTO finished 9th in Cl 2.

• Trainer again in decent form with 2 wins from 12 in last two weeks, all horses have been at longish odds too.

Establishment:

• Weighted at 9-1 today, has won at 9-6 in a Cl 4.

• Not much experience on soft ground, only one place from 6 runs, normally entered on St or GF.

• Course and distance winner last summer.

Both Acuzio and York Cliff are W M Brisbourne's horses, who was won this race twice from three attempts, however both are 4lbs out of the handicap, so have an uphill struggle. So after having a look, I have decided I will keep an eye on this race and will be looking to lay Madaarek, it is currently 3.05 to lay on Betfair, but I think this could get shorter as it has been quite heavily tipped and I don't think this price represents value. Rob

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Chester 14/07 Excelelnt analysis mate, best of luck.

[robsterling]

Re: Chester 14/07 Cheers laid it for win and place so happy with that had to just guess what price it would go to though cause I was off out. I should really put thing in that lay of the day thread but always forget! :wall