aelara Posted July 11, 2007 Share Posted July 11, 2007 This thread was created as we were cluttering up aelara's thread with Massey discussions. Feel free to chat about Masseys custom reports and rating in here! Added by: ZuluWarrior Run em here' date=' thats fine, keeps the place tidy! How many of these systems are Trainer based aelara? ;)[/quote'] Zulu, none of the systems are trainer based. Thats one part of Masseys custom reports I haven't looked into yet. I did use the trainer and jockey stats from his site when I attempted my hand at rating races though :loon One of the new systems I was going to post up here is a very interesting one based on 4 year old horses only;) May put it in the systems forum though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted July 11, 2007 Author Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Really? Which custon report do you use then? I was under the impression that all his custom reports required either a jockey or a trainer selection! Shows how long it's been since I properly perused that site!! Good enought excuse for a visit this afternoon, me-thinks! Zulu When you do any custom report there are stats you can fiddle with re trainers and jockeys but you can also create whole systems via a custom report in the seperate trainer stats section and jockey stats section. He upgraded his site a few months back and added some really useful features. You should check it out sometime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Remmer7 Posted July 11, 2007 Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Could I have the site address please? I fancy a go myself :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted July 11, 2007 Author Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Could I have the site address please? I fancy a go myself :ok http://www.adrianmassey.com/home.php :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted July 11, 2007 Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Hi mate, I too suffer from developing systems using AM's site. Mainly LAY systems though, running them through Estimated Betfair prices and trying to get a ROI of less than 75% overall. The trouble is,the fun for me is actually desgining the systems rather than operating them! I hope you don't overcook it by coming up with too many systems and trying to keep account of them all on here, you'll be putting extra stress on yourself on busy days and that's where mistakes can happen. Having said that, good luck with all your systems and thanks for posting the qualifiers for people. Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Remmer7 Posted July 11, 2007 Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? http://www.adrianmassey.com/home.php :ok Thanks :) ...and good luck! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted July 11, 2007 Author Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Hi mate, I too suffer from developing systems using AM's site. Mainly LAY systems though, running them through Estimated Betfair prices and trying to get a ROI of less than 75% overall. The trouble is,the fun for me is actually desgining the systems rather than operating them! I hope you don't overcook it by coming up with too many systems and trying to keep account of them all on here, you'll be putting extra stress on yourself on busy days and that's where mistakes can happen. Having said that, good luck with all your systems and thanks for posting the qualifiers for people. Danny Danny Its great fun isn't it? We'll definitely have to have a chin wag about it someday. No, these are definately the only ones I'll be posting up. I've mentioned the word 'overkill' in some of my posts....;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Remmer7 Posted July 11, 2007 Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Wow...this site is all a bit much to me at the minute :lol ...any tips on where to start? :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted July 11, 2007 Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Ok, I think that we should take a moment to sort things out here. We seem to have hi-jacked aelara's system thread and turned it into a Massey followers thread!!! I'd suggest Splitting off a thread where we can discuss all things Massey, and leave aelara's thread in peace so the selections can be made without too much banter. I'd be happy to prune out the discussion posts from this thread into a new one, and tidy up your thread, but I won't do anything until you say you'd like me to aelara.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted July 11, 2007 Author Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Ok, I think that we should take a moment to sort things out here. We seem to have hi-jacked aelara's system thread and turned it into a Massey followers thread!!! I'd suggest Splitting off a thread where we can discuss all things Massey, and leave aelara's thread in peace so the selections can be made without too much banter. I'd be happy to prune out the discussion posts from this thread into a new one, and tidy up your thread, but I won't do anything until you say you'd like me to aelara.... Zulu Whatever you think mate. Leave as is and start a Massey thread from now, prune the messages and do one then, whatever. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted July 11, 2007 Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? This thread was created as we were cluttering up aelara's thread with Massey discussions. Feel free to chat about Masseys custom reports and rating in here! Wow...this site is all a bit much to me at the minute :lol ...any tips on where to start? :ok I'd suggest starting out by looking at Masseys daily ratings, they can be the source of a few nice winners and a great starting point for a system based on his ratings! (Anyone remember THE%MAN's 'Winning with Massey' system??) After that, I'd try to get the hang of custom reports. The easiest way to do this is to pick a trainer you like, and goto the trainers section of Massey's site, at the bottom (left) theres a link to 'Custom Report' where you can select your trainer and a plethora of filtering options. I find running the report with all options on, and checking out the breakdowns, then backing up and applying some filters, then seeing how that effects the report, is a good technique for developing jockey or trainer based systems! Hope that helps you get into it some... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted July 11, 2007 Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? (Anyone remember THE%MAN's 'Winning with Massey' system??) Just out of curiosity, does anyone know what happened to The%man? I always used to love following his systems when I first joined. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sousa Posted July 11, 2007 Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Just out of curiosity' date=' does anyone know what happened to The%man? I always used to love following his systems when I first joined.[/quote'] There is a MR % in Adrian Massey's forum. Not sure if its the same but you check it out if you want. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted July 11, 2007 Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Just out of curiosity' date=' does anyone know what happened to The%man? I always used to love following his systems when I first joined.[/quote'] As far as I know he's still around on the Massey forums. As he worked with alot of masseys stats ( I think almost exclusivally) he thought that was the best place for his input, nothing against PL.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted July 11, 2007 Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: Massey discussion thread Yeah %man is out there churning them out....I was posting there for a bit but never got any feedback or discussion going so returned home to PL feeling guilty.....:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Remmer7 Posted July 11, 2007 Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? This thread was created as we were cluttering up aelara's thread with Massey discussions. Feel free to chat about Masseys custom reports and rating in here! I'd suggest starting out by looking at Masseys daily ratings, they can be the source of a few nice winners and a great starting point for a system based on his ratings! (Anyone remember THE%MAN's 'Winning with Massey' system??) After that, I'd try to get the hang of custom reports. The easiest way to do this is to pick a trainer you like, and goto the trainers section of Massey's site, at the bottom (left) theres a link to 'Custom Report' where you can select your trainer and a plethora of filtering options. I find running the report with all options on, and checking out the breakdowns, then backing up and applying some filters, then seeing how that effects the report, is a good technique for developing jockey or trainer based systems! Hope that helps you get into it some... Cheers mate :ok Hopefully Ill be back in a couple of weeks with a profitable system :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Cheers mate :ok Hopefully Ill be back in a couple of weeks with a profitable system :unsure Ya don't need a week! I'll show you how easy it is, with a little walk through if you like, and aelara and the guys can correct and add advise as I go. You into that? pick a trainer and we'll have a system (in principle) by the end of the day! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenerman Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Massey discussion thread What I can't understand is why my systems all look good back tested but never seem to be as good when my money is down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenerman Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Massey discussion thread Personally I find the Custom Reports for past ratings and for Favs are very useful.You can check the record of Beaten favs, first time blinkers etc.In theory they are a goldmine but patience, confidence ,discipline and a big enough bank are required if you want to make them work for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted July 12, 2007 Author Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Massey discussion thread Dont forget also, that once you compile a report, as well as back dating it seven years, you can also check the sequences at the bottom of the page, ie, longest winning run, losing run, placed and unplaced. Invaluable. Enables you then to work out what bank you need to work with and what stakes to use.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Massey discussion thread Yes, both very good points! What I can't understand is why my systems all look good back tested but never seem to be as good when my money is down. I get that, I think it's called bad luck, or gambling or summin :) I find a good technique is to develop your system based on the last 2 or 3 years, so that you get a good 'recent' snapshot. Then when your happy with it, be sure to re-run the report with just the last year, for your most recent snapshot, if it averages under the 3-4 year average, the trend your tracking is probably in decline, and time to re-evaluate. Also, re-run the report with l7-9 years, to check for long term consistancy. I find this technique helps to identify if the trend your looking at is new or old, consistent or sporadic, and a stratagy or adjustments can then be identified. Just in my experiance of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenerman Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Massey discussion thread I always use 3 years but checking just the last year seems a good double check. I am wary of longer periods as rule changes etc can change a pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Massey discussion thread I always use 3 years but checking just the last year seems a good double check. I am wary of longer periods as rule changes etc can change a pattern. Sure, but looking at the longer periods can also reveal new patterns. Most things in life tend to go through 'peaks' and 'troughts'. ANd looking at the big picture just might show you that your just about to go straight into a big trought, or losing period.... But yea, can't be relied on for tuning or development of the filters, sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted July 12, 2007 Author Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Massey discussion thread But guys If you run the report for the full seven or eight years, when you get the results there is also a table that gives you the summaries for the last seven years. Surely a glance at this will tell you whether the system trends are in decline or whatever? For example Results broken down by Year Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at SP Placed (inc wins) Place Strike Rate Each-Way %Return at SP 2000864653.5%156.7%7081.4%140.6%2001883944.3%156.3%5967.0%132.0%20021014039.6%122.0%6463.4%111.2%2003994040.4%143.7%6767.7%126.5%20041235847.2%144.5%8871.5%129.8%20051014342.6%130.5%7372.3%124.0%20061013635.6%131.4%6665.3%119.5%2007502448.0%132.8%4080.0%126.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Massey discussion thread What if your running multiple filters? For instance race type and distance... I like to run seperate reports (after all, it is only the back button, tick a few boxes and go) so that I can scan the breakdowns and maybe spot other trends. For instance what if your selection criteria for race type is sound but the optimal distance changes every couple of years? A breakdown of the entire 8-9 years gives you breakdown off all rides, not just the recent ones.... Your not wrong though, like I said when running it back for 8-9 years, it provides that type of yearly breakdown for more general trends in profitability... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Massey discussion thread I also find it useful to cross reference particular months across all 7 or 8 years.. you can fine-tune the overall system then to fit trends in each month. eg for example in a system i use at the moment for the month of July it proves beneficial to leave out horses that have won last time, even though overall it still pays to leave them in. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted July 12, 2007 Author Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Massey discussion thread What if your running multiple filters? For instance race type and distance... I like to run seperate reports (after all, it is only the back button, tick a few boxes and go) so that I can scan the breakdowns and maybe spot other trends. For instance what if your selection criteria for race type is sound but the optimal distance changes every couple of years? A breakdown of the entire 8-9 years gives you breakdown off all rides, not just the recent ones.... Your not wrong though, like I said when running it back for 8-9 years, it provides that type of yearly breakdown for more general trends in profitability... Zulu I dont get what you mean. Surely any criteria you put in will ultimately give you the yearly trends as well. Or am I missing the point somewhere :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Massey discussion thread yea, perhaps I described it badly... As an example, lets say a particular trainer has a good strike rate over handicaps over 8 years, each year shows a regular profit... But what if in this case 80% of the handicaps and 90%-100% of the handicap wins where run 3 or more years ago, and in the last 2 years the pattern has shifted to say, maidens and does just as well... In this case the maiden victories sell you a bluff in the yearly breakdown, as you see a high strike rate in the handicap breakdown, and consistant yearly profit. Whereas in reality its maidens that are now to be focused on. In this case you the premise of the system (handicap performance) is false and the system won't work, as its not 'future proof' (to borrow a term from my industry). All I'm saying is taking a moment to run that 2-3 year report will show this situation up well, as it would show a much higher strike rate in maidens and significantly depleated strikerate in handicaps.... Of course this is an example, but I hope you can see what I'm suggesting, in that 8-9 year breakdowns can be deceptive sometimes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted July 12, 2007 Author Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Massey discussion thread OK. I think I know what your getting at now :unsure Anyhow, I must say I have only ever run the 8-9 year simulations because in the main my systems are focused on one main factor, ie, a system based on 7 furlong races, or 5 year old horses, or sellers, whatever. I can see your point of view for running yearly or 2-3 yearly simulations though :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Massey discussion thread Something that maybe worth a mention here is to also look at the strike rate of any system. 2 systems may return 20% ROI but have vastly different strike rates - even with a 50% S/R it is highly likely to go through a losing run of 8 - so imagine how long a losing run on a 10% strike rate would go for. I'm not saying either is right or wrong as 20% is 20% but the paths are totally different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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