AFL Round 12 (Week 2 - Fri June 20 - Sun June 22)

[TazaD]

Figured I'd fire up a new thread, given the old one had last week's dates... Firstly a quick round up of the weekend... Essendon surprised me with their game plan. As the most defensive minded team over the last 6 weeks they decided they could out-gun Port 1-1...a fair enough thought given Port's defensive efforts recently!!...but er, at about 8 goals to 1 and Port doing it easily, you think you'd change it up, Kev? Flooding the whole team back midway in the 3rd was WAY too little too late... Port looked good!...easy game for them tho, but so is Brisbane next week...could be one to look out for again?? Geelong!...the best team going 'round atm. 61-37 I50's...kicked against the wind in the first (after winnning the toss!!!!), and still got the job done in super impressive style. Very good team. Brisbane. Aren't. Dogs got lucky. Like most (all?) shoot-outs, the team who kicks the straightest wins. Was a game of Russian Roulette...as open as you like. Bad signs for the Dogs, as now 2 weeks in a row their defensive pressure has been ZERO!! 55-63 I50's, 31 shots to 35... Expect them to start favs v. the Kangaroos next game, and expect them to lose. :wall Oh, the Roos...50-51 I50's...32-33 clearances...played the game well enough, just missed a LOT of easy shots, and a 3 goal burst in the last 2 minutes made the result look far worse than it was. Expect them to start 'dogs v. the Dogs next game, and expect them to win. :wall Carlton got smashed. Expect them to start 'dogs for the rest of the season, and expect them to lose! ;) Right...with (out actually! :lol) the express written concent of Bjv, I feel obliged to say the following... ...Collingwood are a masive chance, and well worth a shot on the spread. (This statement does not necessarily reflect the views of the author or publication) Looks to me like a dog weekend...well, first couple of games anyway... Richmond +15.5ish... Overall, the numbers of these teams are pretty similar...BOTH teams av'ing 46 I50's per game, Richmond allowing 54, Melbourne 55... ...you'd think that would have changes recently?...well, yes...in Richmond's favour! The last 5 show Richmond with a semi-respectable 46-51...Melbourne blown out to 46-57!! Even in last week's win they had 9 less entries than Collingwood...but poor effciency up forward cost the 'Pies...more to the point when O'Brien went down they had no-one to cover Robertson. The other factor is in the ruck. Richmond have been god-awful in the ruck, but surprisingly, Melbourne have been almost as bad...47-89 effective hitouts for the year...16-48 in their last 5!!! (Richmond 18-41) As I mentioned earlier, I50's identical...efficiency almost the same...both score about the same (obviously!)...the slight advantage to Melbourne in defense (1.85 to 1.71 overall, and 1.89 to 1.69 in the last 5)...but can a Melbourne forward line minus Nietz take advantage? Melbourne won in a stinker last year by 18 points...but had 4 less I50's...they managed to hold Richmond to a score just every 2.88 entries, which you'd have to suggest is very unlikely this season. Melbourne are every bit as bad as Richmond, and I think the price has a bit of "Carlton" about it...2 wins, and suddenly they are a good team??!! Nope. Better than Richmond? Maybe....more than 2 goals better? ... can't see it. Collingwood +16.5ish would look great...but have they got a defender in the house??? (Bjv...you over 6 ft tall and willing to whack some heads, my man?) Clement looks likely to miss again. No Presti, O'Brien... Still...I'll be pretty keen on them...I know I've questioned the Magpies' wins before, but a look at Sydney results so far... Wins v. WC here (yeah, not bad I guess...but WC have since been poor away from home a lot!) ...Richmond, Brisbane, Melbourne, Port and Doggies... As I mentioned last week, in the win over Hawthorn, they were statistically smashed...in fact in the last 5 games, Collingwood +4 I50's, Sydney -1... ...now this has to be tempered somewhat by Collingwood's draw too...last 5 have been Carlton, Dogs, Freo, Brisbane, Melbourne... ...but head-to-heads show a good match-up for the 'Pies. Last 4 at this venue have been 2-2, with Sydney wins by just 6 and 1, and a Collingwood win last year by 13 as 2.40 'dogs... ...in fact the av margin between these teams in their last 9 meetings is just 12 ppg!! Would love Clement to play...can Wakelin, Maxwell and (likely) Cox do the job?... ...the way the Sydney forwards are playing, I'd have to think they might. Again, in what looks like a very even game, nearly 3 goals will be huge...will snap up +16.5 in a flash! Eagles/St.Kilda....er, did I say a 'dog week?...although, given a 6 goal start it could be close! Obviously (to me anyway! :D) I'd prefer the under in this one...so will the books, but I'll do a Hermes here, and go as low as I can go! WC allow a super impressive 41 I50's a game at home!!...at an even more impressive 2.34 for about 60 ppg! Saints strong defensively, allow about 45 I50's pg, but can't score!! Outside the Dome they av just 44 I50s @ 2.23 (57 ppg!!)...last 5 almost the same (depsite playing 3 of those indoors!!!!) I think this one pans out like the Melbourne game...Saints simply won't have the ball/forward power to score (Saints 3.50ish for lowest score this week looks tremendous value!) but I wouldn't think the Eagles could score aswell as they did that day. Eagles win for sure...-34ish could be close...a score of 100-60 looks about right... ...make of that what you will ;)

[ads25]

Re: AFL Rd. 12. (Wk 2) Interesting stat for the Syd-Coll game. The highest winning margin by either of these clubs this decade is 20 points, while 3 games have been decided by less than a kick. So fair to say we could be in for another epic if history is any guide. If the weather is damp, expect the winner of this match to take it out by Under 39.5 points for that extra bit of value