Ratings and Queries - Suggestions please

[BillyHills]

With all the knowledgeable people that visit these shores nowadays i was wondering if any of you could offer some suggestions to a couple of things i'm working on at the moment. Basically, without mentioning trade names, i have got use of some software that allows you to calculate your own Ratings and also ask the database a series of 'queries' to help back test systems. On both sections i would like to know your ideas on a couple of things, bit of a brainstorming session i suppose. Ratings 1) Not sure if anyone has experience in this area, but on flat racing how many pounds per length would you calculate the ratings, i hear many say 1lb = 1 length and longer on soft ground. 2) I see many horses these days win first time out after a lengthy lay off and quite a few rated races are headed by a horse that hasnt ran for ages, what would you say the cut off point would be to take a horse seriously on his comeback? 3) Horses that run on the AW always seem to be well handicapped when they return to race on turf, a lot of top rated animals have had their last run on the AW, would you discount AW form or not? 4) Some people love speed figures, do you regard this as important, i always think it depends on too many things, pace of race, how many runners etc...to be accurate enough. In the states with the split times its quite different. Queries With a massive database its quite possible to enter almost anything and get a result to your query, the usual ones are; % of winning favourites Top weights in H'Caps C & D winners at a track Record of a trainer in a particular type of race etc........ All these can be tested to see how they would have done to level stakes over a period of time, very handy if you have devised a system. Also does 10yr trends, do you think these are important or does each race have no concequence to what has happened before? Just wondered what you would ask as a 'query' or what would be a good type of race/system to back test. You can test things out on past races or future decs. Feel free to ask anything and appreciate any input. BH

[BillyHills]

Re: Ratings and Queries - Suggestions please Just to give you an example of the 'queries', ran a default one on the following; Odds On Favs in Handicaps on the flat over 5f/6f since Jan 1st 2006 Runners = 49 (last one Rasaman today) Winners = 31 (63%) Longest losing run = 3 (3 times) £1 level stakes = + £3.83 As you can see, although this is a broad example it could prove whether a system is worth following or not, the losing sequence especially valuable to those using % of bank staking plans.