Friday

[Guest beamer]

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wolv 4.05 Hurricane Coast 60% stake @ 9.8 Sundried Tomato 30% stake @14.0 Bond Playboy 10% @ 40.0 Competitive race which I really should class as too hard, as nothing screams off the page at me, but I still think my selections are worth support. I can't have Celtic Mill from his 1 draw, even though he won from there lto and will probably get an uncontested lead. The surface may ride different today and at around 7/2 with no guarantee of him getting off the fence, I'll discount him. Polar Kingdom has never run on the track. I'm a big fan of Quito; I think this is his best A/W trip/track and I still think he is well h/capped, as he made vast improvement from 5-6. Well supported when withdrawn last month, I have to pass him by on account of the lay off. If there was one horse I had to back at the prices, it would have to be Bond Playboy, at the overnight prices. From an out of form stable, the horse has done little wrong ( confirmed by the h/cappers assessment) and returns to his best track/trip IMO. May need to come down a few lbs, but I do think he is overpriced. Sundried Tomato looks to have plenty of opportunities, but he did show signs of returning to form. If you ignore his last run over track/trip, he has actually run of an average OR of 89.3. Now off 79, he is on a reasonable mark. Hurricane Coast has the look of a drifter and Queens Rhapsody appears to hold HC, based on their last two runs. I can understand the support for Queens Rhapsody and I think the Grey Pearl h/cap will throw up more winners ( Chateau Niclol was one ), but my worries regarding him still apply. Even with a strong pace guaranteed in this race, Queens Rhapsody appears to need 7f and the 3lb drop may not be enough. His last 6f run was a small conditions race, which generally need to be treated with caution. Hurricane Coast may appear in the grip of the h/capper, but I still like the look of him. Although I blamed the draw for his last poor run, the jockey also reported he ran flat, which was understandable when you consider he had 8 runs in 27 days. He has had a 13 day rest which should have freshened him up. The weight advantage of Queens Rhapsody ( 10lb better for last run/ 5lb worse for 6f run ) is made more complex by the fact Hurricane Coast is 12lb better with jockey claims; a factor which is hard to quantify. If you disregard HC's run over a mile here on account of the trip, the only form you can consider was his 2nd to Celtic Mill off 81. 3lb better today, a better draw and possibly a little of Rory Moore's claim could swing things around. I get the impression it will drift in the market, but I've committed myself at 9.8. With regards to Bond Playboy, he has put in decent runs during the trainers poor spell and although drawn wide , 44.0 is a massive price IMO. Any comments appreciated. Cheers beamer

[Guest The Muppet King]

Friday Unlucky with Quito Beamer, just thought I would say Hi, don't really do the horses on a regular basis but will try to contribute with the bigger races to get some discussion going. Best of luck for Saturday :ok Any thoughts on the Tote Gold Trophy ?

[Guest beamer]

Re: Friday I really can't work that race out Muppet. I think you can find better value prices in easier races. I've no strong view in the race. Cheers beamer