Non Handicap E/w Value

[cavello]

Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Bet with Blue Square. All Bets - 27th of September 2007 to 28th of September 2007

Date Time Bet Type Stake Event Price Returns Refund Details 28.09.07 20:25 Single xxxx 8.25 Win or Each Way Four Tel 28/1 XXXXX £0.00 28.09.07 20:24 Single XXX 8.25 Win or Each Way Four Tel 28/1 XXXXX £0.00 Feel guilty. But if you understand the method of "Slapdash" you would have been on.:\

[gregprowt]

Re: Non Handicap E/w Value have to say Cavelloman, I am a MASSIVE fan of your threads one of the best on Punters Lounge (IMOH) :ok but I would rather you kept them sort of things off thread, just makes me feel like Ive been a fool for not getting the winner like I say, I don't wanna cheese you off at all, but nothing worse than hearing after the event keep up the great thread :clap

[cavello]

Re: Non Handicap E/w Value O.K.:spank But there is an educational elememt to my threads and this is the most important element in my opinion. Even now at my advanced age I'm learning and adapting my methods. Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day, teach him to fish and you feed him for life.:ok

[LaRoz]

Re: Non Handicap E/w Value I am with you Cavelloman here. I was out tonight so just seen the result. Backed your picks earlier so made a loss, but I think your thread is superb. Having said that I doubt I would have bothered to even look at the market if I was in - so I want to know what you are betting on, especially as you had advised the odds on favourite was there to be beaten. Keep up the great work.

[cavello]

Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Thanks. In the smaller type races the market can change very rapidly in the last 10 minutes and any informed punter must be prepared to adapt their betting. I certainly never expected the favourite to be 1/5(I expected about 1/2 min) with the next 3 in the betting 6/1,25/1 and 28/1. This was a gift race to an each/way bandit. IMO the favourite was too short at 1/2 so I was surprised to see it such a short price. I can ensure.everybody that Just Oscar would have been a much more profitable winner for me.

[cavello]

Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Market Rasen 1.35 Elusive Dream witthout an outing for over a year is a very short price considering this is his first outing over hurdles. Dan Buoy is rated at 120 which is the level where wins are frequent for horses rated at this level in novice hurdles. French Opera is also experienced over the sticks and is rated at 112. So we have an odds on shot without an outing for 402 days and making it's first attempt at hurdles opposed by 2 fit horses with winning form over hurdles rated at a reasonable level. 3 pts e/w Dan Buoy @7/1:hope 3pts e/w French Opera @4/1:hope Both BOG with Bet365. Very hard to guess how the market will develop at the course.

[cavello]

Re: Non Handicap E/w Value

Market Rasen 1.35 Elusive Dream witthout an outing for over a year is a very short price considering this is his first outing over hurdles. Dan Buoy is rated at 120 which is the level where wins are frequent for horses rated at this level in novice hurdles. French Opera is also experienced over the sticks and is rated at 112. So we have an odds on shot without an outing for 402 days and making it's first attempt at hurdles opposed by 2 fit horses with winning form over hurdles rated at a reasonable level. 3 pts e/w Dan Buoy @7/1:hope 3pts e/w French Opera @4/1:hope Both BOG with Bet365. Very hard to guess how the market will develop at the course.

2nd and unplaced loss on bet 5.7 pts. Profits are taking a beating at the moment. Profit to Date 145.05 pts

[cavello]

Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Ascot 345 Laverock 3 pts E/W @5/1 with Ladbrokes 1. Highest rated on OR 2. Won on soft and at distance 3. Good consistent form on Group 1/2 and this represents a drop in class

[cavello]

Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Musselburgh 4.45 El Coto 3 pts E/W @9/2 with Sportingbet:hope Top rated in terms of OR. Ran just 4 days ago and ran well at this course recently over today's distance. Been much higher rated in the past and IMO is a littlle better then his OR at the moment.

[cavello]

Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 3,00 Curragh Evening Time 2 pts E/W @11/2 with William Hill.:hope:hope:hope Flopped LTO over 8 furlongs. Strange this as breeding clearly indicated she would have problems at this distance. If not gone over for the season ,and this is a worry therefore small stakes, should make a bold bid for victory.

[cavello]

Re: Non Handicap E/w Value

Ascot 345 Laverock 3 pts E/W @5/1 with Ladbrokes 1. Highest rated on OR 2. Won on soft and at distance 3. Good consistent form on Group 1/2 and this represents a drop in class

Unplaced 6 pts Stopped in run would have placed if not baulked:wall held up, ridden to challenge over 1f out, every chance when short of room and hampered 1f out, no chance afterwards opened 9/2:wall

[cavello]

Re: Non Handicap E/w Value

3' date=00 Curragh Evening Time 2 pts E/W @11/2 with William Hill.:hope:hope:hope Flopped LTO over 8 furlongs. Strange this as breeding clearly indicated she would have problems at this distance. If not gone over for the season ,and this is a worry therefore small stakes, should make a bold bid for victory.

Unplaced -4 pts

[cavello]

Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Outlay to Date = 694.0pts Return to date= 823..15pts Profit to Date = +129.05 pts Yield = 18.6%

[cavello]

Re: Non Handicap E/w Value

Musselburgh 4.45 El Coto 3 pts E/W @9/2 with Sportingbet:hope Top rated in terms of OR. Ran just 4 days ago and ran well at this course recently over today's distance. Been much higher rated in the past and IMO is a littlle better then his OR at the moment.

Unplaced -6 pts Unlucky in running. :wall

[cavello]

Re: Non Handicap E/w Value This is the end of this thread. No bets in October. End of Thread final result. Summer 2007 Outlay to Date = 694.0pts Return to date= 823..15pts Profit to Date = +129.05 pts Yield = 18.6% Poor last couple of weeks. Will return with a new E/W thread in November. Which will be called Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8