African Cup of Nations Qualifiers

[Youssef]

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Internationals)
Event	Sudan V Mauritius
Selection	Sudan (-1 EH)
Strength	10/10
Date	02/06/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Nordicbet @ 1.70 (Back)
Reasoning	NOTE: This is a European Handicap bet. -1 EH is the equivalent to -1.5 AH (if Sudan win by 1 the bet is lost) Analysis: Now let me get this one straight: The question is whether Sudan can win Mauritius by TWO?? That's it? Well, the answer is definately YES! If they can hold Cameroon to a draw in Khartoum, they can certainly beat the minor tams of the continent by 2 or 3. Also, lets not forget Al-Hilal has qualified for the quarter finals (groups stage) of the CAF Champions League, while their arch-rivals, Al-Marriekh have reached the same stage in the CAF Confederations Championship (equivalent to UEFA Cup). This certainly says something about the Sudanese football level comapred to the rest of "domestic" football in the continent. Faisal Ajab is one talented dribbler, and I'm sure he will cause havok in the Mauritius defence line, and with th confidence the squad has got form both winning the 1st leg in Mauritius (something Tunisia failed to do), and their clubs advancing on the African scene (90% of the team plays for either top 2 clubs) I'm sure they intend to fortify their position on the second spot (1 point behind Tunisia) and place themselves as favourites to clinch one of the 3 runner-ups tickets.

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Internationals)
Event	Mauritania V Egypt
Selection	Home (+1.75) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	03/06/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.10 (Back)
Reasoning	Well, I'm not sure about this handicap. 1st of all, Egypt are -generally- bad travellers. They are almost flawless at home (Cairo Int'l Stadium), but on the road they simply suck. (I refer you to the goalless draw in Botswana) Furthermore, they're playing on tartan (carpet) this time, and the Egyptian never got used to it. Now add to that the abscence of Mido (dropped for losing his starting position is Tottenham), Zidan (just had a surgery) and Met'eb (supended for receiving a red card in the corresponding game in Cairo), and you get a depleted frontline with only Amr Zaki as the main striker with Int'l experience. Sure, Mohammad Fadl (Issmaili) & Gamal Hamza (Zamalek) have the talent, and even some experience due to playing with their clubs in the African clubs tournaments, but they -also- will hate playing on tartan. Shikabala maybe the only hope for Egypt to cover the handicap. He's talented (never seen him on carpet though), speedy, and has a BRAIN (something that's become rare amongst footballers of late) On the other side, I see a slight advantage for the hosts to play on this kind of surface, but considering their poor talent I don't expect them to make much of it on the offence. However, they may as well rely on a less than average performance by the Egyptians and hope for a point, which will theoritically bring them level with Botswana. This group is composed of 4 nations, so the runner up will have a chance to qualify if they become one of the best 3 runner-ups of all 4-nations groups. I'm predicting a goalless score, or a "hard earned" win for the visitors by the odd goal

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Internationals)
Event	Cote d'Ivoire V Madagascar
Selection	Home (-4) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	03/06/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.02 (Back)
Reasoning	Two words: Didier Drogba! Well, you know the name and you know what he’s capable of on the highest of levels, so I guess you need no explanation of his ability to score and motivate his teammates against a poor Madagascar side. But why should the likes of Drogba, Zokora, & Eboue even care to score much when they’re almost guaranteed to top the group with a mere win? Well, “patriotism†could be the main factor here. Not too long ago, Cote d’Ivoire was torn apart by a civil war. The rebels from the north too a city named Bouake as their base/capital. Now that the country’s settled and peace is “almost†reigning allover, they decided for Bouake to host this game for the national team. (Wise move IMHO) Kolo Toure’s supended, and Aruna Dindane’s injured, but aren’t Drogba, Kone, Kalou.. etc enough? Madagascar are simply too “limited†to offer the Ivoirians any serious challenge. They are the bottom of the 3-nations group with no points. They also lack motivation and to add to it they’ve changed their coach twice in a matter of a few months. Can’t see why Cote d’Ivoire could fail to cover the handicap.

[davidmphill]

Re: African Cup of Nations Qualifiers Nice write ups Youssef, best of luck with the picks.

[litost]

Re: African Cup of Nations Qualifiers Indeed very nice write ups for a competition that tends to ofer much more value than UEFA , can i ask you Youssef what do you think of Lybia and Argelia trips to Namibia and Cabo Verde ? north africans tend to suffer below sahara and specially V look capable squad . Another one to start shortly Eritrea-Angola they play at 3500+ meters high and great heat noticed many unders on their home games , angola doe snot need to hurry they can seal qf at home next game under at 1.85 looks promisisng . The line for over in Uganda-Nigeria looks good 2.25 1.96 and locals with a bunch of hungry players - some of them cwith quality like argie based or SA - eager for revenge +1/2 2.12 could spring a surprise against Nigeria with UK based stars - on vacation for couple of weeks - and lots of turmoil in camp tough this is rotine for them , hwo do tou see the rest of match ? Cheers.

[Youssef]

Re: African Cup of Nations Qualifiers Thank you, David. Looks like you'v bcome a regular fan of my posts :lol Litost: Youa sk of 2 tricky games in Lybia & Algeria. For Lybia, I don't think they'll lose. They may fail to win, but a loss is unlikely IMHO. However, this is not a tip I would promote to public, as Namibia are a good side offenssively. Now Algeria @ Cape Verdi is even more tricky. I didn't expect Algeria to win at home to begin with, but they did. Now they're playing away and I still cannot see them winning, but the bookies seem to think they have as much chance as Cape Verdi, so I would rather wait and see if the Algerians are "resurrected" after a long nap! The problem with this fixture is that Cape Verdi is one of the few teams in Africa I have never actually seen play. Ok. 30 minutes in their last game in Algeria, but that's hardly enough to learn of their playing style and tactics, their best players and vulnerabilities. (I prefer to rely on my own eyes rather than on reports and/or stats alone). I had the same thoughts about Eritrea V Angola, but -again- I have never seen the home side FIRST TEAM playing. I only watched a game or two of their youth. Angola I know so well, even before they made their appearance in the WC, partly due to 2 of their internationals playing in the Egyptian league, but also from watching their clubs in the African tournaments. I can say they are skilled, determined, and patient. I'd expect them to play not to concede, and then buildon it. If they could hit the target once, that would be enough for them, and if Amado Flavio is offered a chance, I very much doubt he will miss the target. (He's the leading scorer of the Egyptian league, btw). Uganda V Nigeria? I slightly favour the draw here. Unders is a good option, IMHO, since Uganda will probably be cautious of the Eagles strike force, while the Green eagles themselves will have noted how hard it is ti get to the back of Uganda's net, so they should make sure they won't concede first. The rest of the games are either too hard to call or too easy with no value. Tunisia will win.. but I don't think you can use odds of 1.05 or less, and I can't guarantee they'll cover the handicap since their main concern is probably the 3 points. Another point that discourages me from betting on many games is the fact that many teams have a full line up of European based players. These should be tired after a long season, and many may not show up, so I need either a strong motive or a special condition (pitch, weather.. etc.) to place a bet. This doesn't much apply on teams that are mostly made of domestically based players. For 90% of the continent (apart from the Northern/Arab Countries), it's MID-SEASON now, so they should b at their best.

[litost]

Re: African Cup of Nations Qualifiers Thanks for the reply :) , just saw it , checking results some 'surprises' but as you said teams with european based player and fat bank acounts may be handicaped playing in africa at this moment , home advantage huge!! again. Have not seen CV myself but checked their rooster yesterday and have on ranks the second TS of the portuguese premier alongside other quality player playing there ... Mozambique seems on the rise too Burkina Faso is way stronger at home however i read locals have no killer striker available .. Sierra Leone looks promising too in a more balanced match odds suggest if finally Adebayor and the other two do not travel or even if they do looking at how things are turning :) Cheers.