AJ Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Really starting to get me down, when I have KK it seems to run into AA too many times. I've just went through my poker tracker database and discovered that when holding KK I have faced another player with AA 25% of the time. The average for this should be just under 5%, based on 169 starting and hands and 8 others players. I know, sure it happens and variance is a bitch and all that, but I can see why some people think that online poker is fixed to generate rake sometimes. On each of these occasions, we've got into a preflop bidding war, where we've both gone all in, I've lost on every occasion. :sad Another nights hard won profits have just disappeared, 3rd time this week and my database bottom line has just gone red because of it. I need a hug. :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: KK vs AA - Variance How do you work that out on Poker Tracker? I've had KK 139 times and dont fancy going through hand after hand to find out :unsure You're not just looking at the result are you? So if you go all in with KK and are called by A2 and they flop the A, they have a pair of Aces? How many hands? 25% of what? Sounds a bit mad to be honest!! :loon :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted June 1, 2007 Author Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: KK vs AA - Variance I looked at my KK stats, it's standing up 75% of the time, but is a net loser. So I looked at the losing hands, on a hand by hand basis, and every single time I ran into AA preflop. I only have 24 instances of KK btw so it wasn't that hard to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: KK vs AA - Variance That is quite surprising, actually. According to my calculations, it's about a one in 4000 chance to come up against aces 6 (or more) times over 24 hands where you have kings. Having said that, one in 4000 chances happen frequently. If you think of all the kinds of bad luck you might have had (aces cracked, king high flush losing to ace high flush, opponent making flush on river to beat you, trips beaten by higher trips, etc., etc.), it's not that unlikely that one of them will have happened often enough to be a one in 4000 shot. If you run into aces that often the next 24 times you have kings, then I might start to get suspicious. Out of interest, when you've had pocket aces, how often have you been up against kings? Though I realize that some of the time the kings would fold at some stage, so Poker Tracker wouldn't know about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penelopeys Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: KK vs AA - Variance I've had KK 139 times :loon .... lucky you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: KK vs AA - Variance I looked at my KK stats' date=' it's standing up 75% of the time, but is a net loser.[/quote'] You're doing better than me then - my KK stands up 74.1% of the time, though is winning a net 5.4BB/Hand. I've laid them down 15 times (over 10%) without seeing a showdown .... 6 times post flop, 7 times after the turn and 3 times after the river .... just interested in how often you lay them down? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted June 1, 2007 Author Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: KK vs AA - Variance Out of interest, when you've had pocket aces, how often have you been up against kings? Though I realize that some of the time the kings would fold at some stage, so Poker Tracker wouldn't know about it. I can see this happening 10% of the time, still seems very high. I've never had cause to lay down my kings, I've either ran into AA preflop or won the hand. Never lost a hand another way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runadrum Posted June 2, 2007 Share Posted June 2, 2007 Re: KK vs AA - Variance saw KK v AA three times tonight on three different sites. KK won 2-1, including this one :- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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