Mowgli77 Notebook Thread (FLAT 2010)

[mowgli77]

I'm going to concentrate on the better class races that will probably be listed level and above, taking in the top Group races. These will be mainly over 1m2f and 1m4f upwards and I'd expect a lot of the prices to be quite short. I believe the best horses usually win the best races (Passage Of Time today, Finsceal Beo in 1,000 Guineas etc) and I prefer the better races with the smaller fields when trying to pick a classy winner. I try not to bet under 2-1 unless I'm really confident but my 2 biggest bets were on horses under 2-1 at these type of distances in group 1 races. I'll keep a running total of wins/losses, strike rate, profit and returns etc starting with a 200 pt bank, average bets 10 or 20 pts either win or ew depending on price and confidence. First selections run tomorrow at York.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	2.15 York
Selection	Anna Pavlova
Strength	10/10
Date	17/05/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 2.75 (Back)
Reasoning	A lot could depend on how much rain gets into the ground overnight as the forecast tomorrow is for good weather. I think the ground might be softer than Wednesday which would suit Anna Pavlova as it enjoys cut in the ground. Won easily last time out in a listed race worth 32k. Has a great course record, won here on soft, placed here on soft and good. The placed effort here was in a Group 2 race behind Rising Cross which ran respectably Wednesday. Echelon looks to be the main danger but it would need firmer ground and only beat Topatoo by a neck, which looked like a handicapper at best before that last race, which was a muddling affair. Course and distance form together with proven class and recent good form make this todays banker and if the ground gets any softer I could see this getting even shorter.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	2.45 York
Selection	Authorized
Strength	10/10
Date	17/05/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 2.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Made a slow start on it's debut but finished it's race well and pedigree suggests this type of trip will be more suited than the mile it ran over that day. Made it's debut in a class 2 race rather than a class 5 maiden and then leaped in class to win a Group 1 in great fashion, travelling well and quickening up well with an automatic response when asked for an effort. The form in that Group 1 is pretty solid with Eagle Mountian finishing 5th in the 2000 Guineas giving it a boost. Favourite for the Derby so anything less than a convincing win will see it drift but I think it will take this on the way to Epsom. I think Proponent and Raincoat look bigger dangers than Adagio but need to handle the step up in class and Raincoat has the advantage of a recent run.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread GL, mate :hope