Overs based on previous results

[allthethings]

Warning: This is not a system like jtw1's excellent unders system. I don't pay attention to league averages of overs, and I tend to discount h2h results except in certain local derbies. I will occasionally list a play in spite of the statistics, just because the line seems unusually low. But I generally have good results playing overs...like everybody I have my ups and downs. I do follow certain guidelines: Statistics: I prefer looking at home/away goal numbers first, recent form second. Not just how many overs a team has had, but how consistent the scoring and conceding is. I much prefer to see a team with no clean sheets rather than one that wins 5-0 once a game gets out of hand. I generally won't play on a game where one team plays lots of overs at home but the away team plays lots of unders away. I also have found that it is better when the teams are not both at the top of the table; it gives you more chances to win when one team is capable of blowing the other team out as well as the match being competitive...4-1 as well as 2-1. Lines: I usually shy away from matches with poor odds, even if I think the overs look good. The reason is that no matter what I think, or what I think I think, each game is a 50-50 proposition, so being paid $10 on a $20 bet is a losing proposition in the long run. Feel: I don't believe in recent form too much. If all games played out according to recent form there would be no upsets. So sometimes, not often, I will play on overs just because something seems wrong about the line. Situation: I won't play certain games late in the season when motivation is suspect. I will sometimes lay off based on injury and suspension news, although this is rare: Teams are deeper than people give them credit for. I wish I had back all the money I've lost following someone's tip in here that so-and-so team has seven missings and had to borrow players from the local school to fill the roster...these teams more often than not play the same game as if the roster was complete. Anyway, on to Day 1. Forgive the times noted here, that's U.S. Central Time, six or seven hours (and centuries) behind you. Saturday's picks: Norway 1st Divisjon Soccer - Molde/Ham Kam - total Over 3 (+104) for the regulation time held on May 12 at 9:00am [pending] 0-2 FT LOSS This one is breaking two rules: The teams are in 1st and 2nd, and Molde's home stats and Ham Kam's away stats are so far not that great in terms of producing and conceding goals. But overall these teams are very powerful and both will certainly score here...I'll be honest, it's likely going to end a push, but it's a good line for that fourth goal. Denmark SAS Ligaen Soccer - Midtjylland/Brondby - total Over 2½ (-132) for the regulation time held on May 12 at 10:00am [pending] 1-1 FT LOSS Brondby hasn't won a game on away in over a year, but is a capable team, though coming off conceding 9 goals in their last three. Midtylland's typical result at home is 3-1. Germany 1.Bundesliga Soccer - Aachen/Wolfsburg - total Over 3 (+100) for the regulation time held on May 12 at 8:30am [pending] 2-2 FT WIN Aachen is capable of surprises, but not lately; they're giving up 3 and 4 goals every game as they plummet on the table. The main thing here is both teams concede many goals and the teams are both in danger of being relegated...this could be one of those 3-2 games. Germany 1.Bundesliga Soccer - Bielefeld/Hannover - total Over 2½ (-139) for the regulation time held on May 12 at 8:30am [pending] 3-1 FT WIN Hannover has a pretty good defense, which worries me a little, but Bielefeld's last four games have had 3, 5, 5 and 6 goals...they simply have been attacking constantly to try to pull themselves clear of relegation. Hannover is in contention for a top spot, so I expect a very open game. BOL all

[aliando]

Re: Overs based on previous results good luck mate!