expert Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 Notice: now the odds on Pinnacle have fallen to 1.769 for same handicap - pick taken yesterday afternoon! Sport Football (Minor Leagues) Event NK Slaven Belupo v Dinamo Zagreb Selection NK Slaven Belupo +0.5 (Asian Handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 02/05/2007 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.92 (Back) Reasoning Cracking odds for Slaven not to loose. Season is over in Croatia and Dinamo is champion, so they have nothing really to play for. WIth the injuries to their squad (Eduardo and Vugrinec should probably not perform), odds on Slaven a team which is unbeaten now for 14 rounds are for taking. And it really doesnt matter if home team was already relegated - theyre not, it is always a extra motivation to play vs big teams of Croatian football (Dinamo and Hajduk), so imo a straight win is also worth a shot in this case - Dinamo became champion on sunday - so a few drinks too many and they will have problmes with stamina on the pitch - also probably some youngsters might get a chance in Dinamo squad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bura Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 Re: Croatia 2/5/2007 Prety brave in my opinion. Dinamo has to play cup final against Slaven also so this is good practise for them against same opponent and it will not be taken easy. Dinamo is class above all teams in Croatia at the moment. Although, I agree, they doesn't play well in recent couple of games but it is easy to understand cause they became champions much before last round and they were more focused on cup games than championship. I am waiting Dinamo to come on ah -0,25 and than I beleive Dinamo will have great value but also 2.20 seems great pick for medium stake. No matter what everyone choose it is not game to push with big stakes. GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bura Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: Croatia 2/5/2007 Slaven - Dinamo(-1/4) Match starts at 17:00 CET. Today's neswspapaer in Croatia are writing: Slaven and Dinamo are, at the moment, playing best soccer in Croatia. I can tell them only one thing: wrong guys if you ask me - Zagreb and Å ibenik plays better and more interesting. Truth is that Slaven and Dinamo have best results recently but result is not always matter of quality, somethimes you need lots of luck and individual quality that makes the difference. Slaven is coming after geting draw in recent match against Hajduk. They scored early and later Hajduk has been playing in totally open formation where coach Pudar was quite experimenting with the squad. Still, Slaven showed OK play and they are boosted with morale now. Dinamo is coming after 4-1 won against weak Međimurje where they finally cover hcap and showed signs of awakening that they need before final cup game against same oponent as today. Both teams have no important abesent players (Eduardo will play and Vugrinec will be on the bench for Dinamo). If you ask me this is gift from heaven. Dinamo on -0,25 against any team exept Hajduk is a must bet no matter all other aspects. Slaven is quite good team. I respect them a lot but these hcap and these odds are just too big. Dinamo is a class for itself in Croatia and one other thing is important: if they win today they will demoralise Slaven for match in cup final and make themselves easier way to get double crown this year. On the other hand, Slaven has to save themselves from injuries cause match in cup is far more important. Also if Dinamo wins here it will make their 17th won in a row i championship which will put new standards and new record. I can't see Dinamo loosing here it will be great surprise for me. Higher stake on guests (-1/4). It is all up to them: they are better in all positions and they will probably have more spport on the stadium than hosts. GL Pick: A, Odds: 1.83, Stake: 7, Bookmaker: Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj_fish Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: Croatia 2/5/2007 i was thinking little this morning about game sibenik-hajduk there is several reason why not to go on hajduk this game. first off all these teams are like a one,helps each other hajduk is on the second place and there is no chance they can loose it,on the other side sibenik can go one place up and that is the best place that club had ever been in history - 4 place hajduk took coach from sibenik and their best striker rukavina who will not play becoue of injurie and that is the reason why sibenik win,they are playing excellent football home and without coach and this player they will probably compesate this game so i will go on straight home win, odd is about 3---really worth of try and with higher stake also 1x is good option but odd much lower Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bura Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: Croatia 2/5/2007 Cibalia - Pula(+3/4) Match starts at 17:00 CET. Who are hosts? Zagreb maybe, or Slaven, Hajduk maybe. I do not know but in a match between 11th and 10th to have guests on +3/4 hcap seems too much. I beleive Cibalia, despite home soil advantage, doesnt have enaugh quality to break Pula's strong defence. These teams are about same quality(maybe Pula is even better at the moment) and this is a relegation fight where Pula with draw will for sure avoid relegation battle with some of the 2nd league teams. I beleive this will be tough one where Pula has even chances to win because Cibalia will, as hosts, try to attack (only way to achieve something more from their current position is to win and became only -4 points behind Pula) and Pula is good in counter attacks. All together +3/4 on Pula which will, as alway, play totally defensive style seems more than reasonable. Even if Cibalia wins I doubt it can be in hcap. Medium stake on guest (+0,75) and smaller stake on away win cause odds are quite temptating. GL Pick: A(+0,75), Odds: 1.91, Stake: 5, Bookmaker: Pinnacle Pick: A, Odds: 4.49, Stake: 2, Bookmaker: 10bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj_fish Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: Croatia 2/5/2007 Cibalia - Pula 5 really cant see reason why is odd so high on away win i watched last game with rijeka and pula played good pula is not much better team than cibalia but both sucks cibalia showed last two games improvment but that is not enoug imo x2 over 2,5 everything is more than fair wort of try with smaller stake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj_fish Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: Croatia 2/5/2007 Zagreb - Rijeka 1,8 home win also nice price on home win rijeka is disipointment of the season, they dont play football, squad from the neighbor can beat them, really bad this season, they are trying already to forget this season and think about next one on the other side zagreb is surpise and play briliant and attractive football home win imo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bura Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: Croatia 2/5/2007 Zagreb - Rijeka 1,8 home win also nice price on home win rijeka is disipointment of the season, they dont play football, squad from the neighbor can beat them, really bad this season, they are trying already to forget this season and think about next one on the other side zagreb is surpise and play briliant and attractive football home win imo I can not find more than 1,55 on Zagreb with any of the bookies I use. Only local bookies offers 1.75 but it is actally 1,75-5% so it is 1,6625 and with those odds, no matter that Zagreb is a clear favourite, I will not take any chances. GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj_fish Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: Croatia 2/5/2007 zagreb lost---big surprise:wall:wall:wall:wall pula 1:0:wall:wall:wall sibenik 2:2 it was 2:1 till 90+ damn but good anyway:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kukar Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: Croatia 2/5/2007 SelectionNK Slaven Belupo +0.5 (Asian Handicap) Strength10/10 Date02/05/2007 Bookmaker/PricePinnacle Sports @ 1.92 (Back) Really appreciate the analysis but how do you bet 10/10 at pinn with limit of 35 eutos at early odds? Kukar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
expert Posted May 3, 2007 Author Share Posted May 3, 2007 Re: Croatia 2/5/2007 SelectionNK Slaven Belupo +0.5 (Asian Handicap) Strength10/10 Date02/05/2007 Bookmaker/PricePinnacle Sports @ 1.92 (Back) Really appreciate the analysis but how do you bet 10/10 at pinn with limit of 35 eutos at early odds? Kukar Well the best analysis (not suggesting mine was that) means shit if the pick is a looser - really thought match would go the other way, but it finished 3-0 for Dinamo..so good pick Bura! About your question considering the chosen book - i always thought that finding the book that offers the highest odds is the main catch, anyway if youre not a holder of Pinnacle account or if you have few other accounts at other books, the chosen bookie should not worry you so much, to post the same question twice. Also for someone to bet 35 Euros on game means the same as to someone to bet 1000 Euros or more - so the question of money play no role here. Also the main thing on forum is exchanging views and i believe nobody should follow others advice blindly as IMHO you cant bet your money on other mans opinion - thats just plain irresponsible. Anyway, really hope you will write something constructive in the future as i see you started your PL career with two identical questions, so waiting for your views on games in the future, no matter if your chosen book is either A or X. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G:G Posted May 3, 2007 Share Posted May 3, 2007 Re: Croatia 2/5/2007 SelectionNK Slaven Belupo +0.5 (Asian Handicap) Strength10/10 Date02/05/2007 Bookmaker/PricePinnacle Sports @ 1.92 (Back) Really appreciate the analysis but how do you bet 10/10 at pinn with limit of 35 eutos at early odds? Kukar The way I see it 10/10 tells you that the member making the pick believies in it strongly, at that odds. If you can't find an odds like it, then you should value the odds you can get vs the reasoning, as always when you tail someone. I agree about finding the highest available odds, as it gives a good idea about how one's own bookies value the match. Also: How can you know what 10/10 is for another person? The amount of money is not important, as 10/10 could be 5 euros for me and 2000 euros for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kukar Posted May 3, 2007 Share Posted May 3, 2007 Re: Croatia 2/5/2007 Agree with what all of you wrote, but my main point was: Staking 10/10 with limit of 35 eur dramatically decreases the odds, the other books monitor and adjust their odds as they release after pinnacle Kukar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bura Posted May 4, 2007 Share Posted May 4, 2007 Re: Croatia 2/5/2007 Agree with what all of you wrote, but my main point was: Staking 10/10 with limit of 35 eur dramatically decreases the odds, the other books monitor and adjust their odds as they release after pinnacle Kukar bookies do that for all leagues, esspecially when popular punters(like tenistipsters and similar) release their picks no matter how much money is on stake. it is problem even with much more popular leagues than croatian league is. you can always try to put same amount of stake (35 EUR for example) several times in a row if your bets required that. most of the time it works and odds doesn't drop a lot. for croatian league odds and lines stabilise on saturday morning (most of the games starts on saturday afternoon) and than usually you should not have problems with stakes and limits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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