NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th)

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) I normally post all my picks for the upcomming round on Betshoot on Thursday Mornings,but as I can't get in there again today,I'll give you all a brief run down on the matches this week. Broncos vs Storm Broncos played well last week in downing the Knights,however it has only given them 4 days to back up and also take into account that the Broncos had a number of test players backing up as well.The Storm played well again last week in the driving rain and have won the last two here at Suncorp,In this replay of last years GF I expect the tabvles to be reversed with the Storm winning by 8,Storm 1-12 or Storm -2.5 Bulldogs vs Tigers Bulldogs under performed again last week but they were saved by the Eels lack of enthusiasim in the second half and their poor option of not taking the 1 point with 10 to go,the Tigers got their first win and have had a good rest,but I think the Dogs will still win here,they have a better forward pack and should win,however don't expect a hiding as the Tigers have a decent side and the Dog's are still not firing to well,Doggies to win in a close one.Bulldogs 1-12 or Tigers +8.5. Titans vs Eels The Titans finally got touched up last weekend against Manly,but at home they should giove a better account of them selves,however look to the Eels here who were awful in the second half last week,I expect a better effort from the Eels this week and for them to get a narrow win.Eels 1-12 or Eels to win. Nth Q vs Manly Manly will win here and stay undefeated,I have no doubts in my mind about that,their defence is fantastic and there attack as well is solid,The Cowboys have lost two on the trot now and will be 0-3 in their last 3 matches after tonight,the Cowboys are struggling and their forwards are just not fit enough,Manly has good speed but the Cowboys have just as much so it should be tight,Manly 1-12 or just to win. Souths vs Warriors Won't this match be good,the Bunnies got back on track last weekend and the Warriors have had their first bye,I liked what I saw from the Bunnies last weekend and I think they will back that up with another win here. History says the Bunnies will lose but this is'nt the same bunnies side,another thing to consider is that there are alot of Kiwis in the Souths side and they will lift for this as playing against the Warriors all those players have family and friends back here watching and that inspires most of us when we face each other in any sport.Also Hohia is out and Gatis comes in,Lance has been one of the Warriors main dummy half runners and back up players,his loss will be felt,I'm on the Bunnies here and the Kiwi factor to swing it.Asotasi and Cusak against Price and Wiki,Fa'longo,Widders against Swann and Mannering,the Bunnies have a bit more in the halves ,buit this match is in my eyes by far the match of the Round and will be well worth a watch,Bunnies 1-12 or at the h2h. I'll do Mondays match on Monday and no tip on the Panthers match,maybe before kick off. Good Luck to all with your selections this week.:moon

[D3Z1R3]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) off topic.. i think man city vs aston villa looks good to be under 2.5 goals.. i took chelsea liverpool to be under too :)

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th)

off topic.. i think man city vs aston villa looks good to be under 2.5 goals.. i took chelsea liverpool to be under too :)

Nice work there buddy on the Liv/Chels pick:ok Man City have an excellent home record and should beat the Villians,however Man City have gone ice cold in the last 3 weeks and Villa don't score to many away from home and I doubt they will at City who have one of the best records for not conceeding goals at home,that one looks good as well,Good Luck with that one.:hope My lucky streak has ended with Chelsea winning and Denver losing by a heartbreaking 9 points in the final seconds,sweet as I took both total to go over in the Cavs match and the Warriors to cover the spread against the Mavs as well as the total to go over in both,looks good at the moment,so not to bad,but a loss is a loss no matter how you try to say it, oh well bring on the NRL.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) I should maybe mention,I ain't tippin on it but the Espanyol vs Werder Bremmen uefa cup match in the morning has draw written all over it.If anyones intrested.Actually after looking at both matches on in the morning the Sevilla match could well end in a draw also,I might have a couple of small wagers on the both of them,I wish the NRL would hurry up so I could stop looking at other sports.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th)

jumbo' date=' congratulations on roosters tip.. didnt take it myself unfortunately :([/quote'] I did'nt see this,sorry mate,I always answer,Thanks mate,sorry for not saying so sooner,cheers.;)

[Dan-e]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) hy Jumbo i agree with you on the UEFA Cup Picks.......But because Both Bremen and Sevilla are both the beter sides, it would be safer Bremen 0.5+ and Sevilla 0.5+ because they would both want to go for he win, both paying 1.40. Can you believe it...Golden State getting a hammering by Dallas. ...look like completely different side today from the side that defeated the mavs earlier this week.. I agree with you on Melbourne to beat Brisbane tomorrow. good odds at 1.70. maybe take Melbourne -2.5...... and Souths will win this week aswell but not so sure souths to win by1-12 so just going with Souths at the straight out win.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) Actually i'll take that off as i'm bound to offend some people with it. G.S gettin hammered alright,bummer at least I made my money back today,no win,no loss is still a good day. I would'nt go betting to much on the Bunnies to beat the Warriors by more than 12,the Warriors will smash them,but the Bunnies should scape home at the end,I reckon.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) Funny you should say that Jumbo. I used to bet on 1.50 and below in the past and got burnt pretty bad doing it. I find it's a bit of a psychologically thing. Winning is good and obviously these bets have more chance of winning and well, I got into the habbit a bit of just looking for those shortish odds thinking I should hit. Getting out of that now but I still don't pick with optimal efficiency. Better than before though. Everyone on the Roosters well played yesterday. Oh, on the City v Villa game, City have the worst home offence in the league. They've scored like 10 goals all season at home and it's an eternity since they last scored at home - I think it was Blackburn. Villa I'm sure you know are draw specialists too, 16 this season I think. 0-0 or 1-1 both look good bets as well as Draw and Unders.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th)

Funny you should say that Jumbo. I used to bet on 1.50 and below in the past and got burnt pretty bad doing it. I find it's a bit of a psychologically thing. Winning is good and obviously these bets have more chance of winning and well, I got into the habbit a bit of just looking for those shortish odds thinking I should hit. Getting out of that now but I still don't pick with optimal efficiency. Better than before though. Everyone on the Roosters well played yesterday. Oh, on the City v Villa game, City have the worst home offence in the league. They've scored like 10 goals all season at home and it's an eternity since they last scored at home - I think it was Blackburn. Villa I'm sure you know are draw specialists too, 16 this season I think. 0-0 or 1-1 both look good bets as well as Draw and Unders.

You do alright bro,it's all trial and error untill you find what works for you,you seem to look things through well so eventually you will realise what your doing right and what your doing wrong,I meant no offence with the betting on 1.50 thing and I hope none was taken,i rate you as having a future doing this so keep at it. Good call on the City/Villa match,you know your stuff mate.:notworthy

[Dan-e]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) Jumbo I'm agreeing with ya man.......the only reason i didn't put explanations is because i agreed with your picks..... and i only signed up to this forum is because when i saw your picks and a few others in this forum i was suprised with the strike rate. so thats why i did your help and i can share my help aswell(but im still learning so won't be much good to yous)........ im no expect punter. So you saying theres no point in betting on odds of $1.50.... can't you put two les at around 1.50 in a multi and then your already doubling your money, or you dont do multis? I don't know if your post was directed at me but i havent copied and pasted anyones picks..... so far these were my picks Re: NRL Rugby - Round 6 (April 21st - 23rd)

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I'm liking Houston against Utah and Also Detroit...... Why they both playing at home and they are both the better sides...... Chelsea 0.5+ should be a safe bet also Man Utd 0.5+. In these kind of Games its hard to bet on the visiting team. Look at what happened to Barcelona against Villareal. Doesnt matter how strong the visiting Team is. Homes teams win or draw 75% of the time. I can't i didn't bet on Meritt vs B.Bowen. Another opportunity wasted. oh well theres plenty more to come. Jumbo you got any picks for this week? Union, league, soccer anything. You did so well this week so this trend has to continue Re: NRL Rugby - Round 6 (April 21st - 23rd) Yeh i see where your coming from but i still believe itst he champions league semi and the safe option will be Chelsea 0.5+ because Carvalho will be back the the squad after missing the game against newcastle, also Joe Cole is back from injury and is looking impressive. The Man Utd vs Milan game i see a draw. Ronaldo was just voted The best player in the primierleague and the best young player in the EPL. He will prove on matchday why he was voted best player.he will at the least create one goal. Re: NRL Rugby - Round 6 (April 21st - 23rd)

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Liverpool will certainly not beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. The only Hope liverpool have in beating Chelsea is at Anfield. Everyone is underestimating Chelsea. Why i dont know........Chelsea will go to the final. With Carvalho and Terry in defence i dont think Liverpool have a chance to even score against chelsea. At stamford chelsea wont Concede. So i hope you weren't pissed off at me for copying and pasting other peoples picks. Yeh you might be right about Souths loosing or winning by 1-12.... im only new to this...been punting for 3 years now but only up and down..probably down overall so learning from yous.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) No way bro it was'nt directed at you buddy,I just babble at times bro,sorry about that mate,nothing on you bro,nothing at all. Your alright bro,you look around and think about it well,you also don't look for rich margin bets that are always 50/50 you seem to understand the value of double your money odds,so your future is bright already,just keep at it bro,you ever want help or got a question you know where i'm at. I do combo but not much,single bets are where it's at,i'll give you a classic example of combos gone wrong by the stupidest picks. Last year Combo(can't remember them well but i know which ones lost. Storm 1-12 won Dogs 1-12 won Real Madrid won Valencia won Man United $1.25 LOST Return for $10 on multi $2589,lost on the lowest of the lot. Or how about this one when I was still learning but it taught me a valuable lesson one I will never forget,not a multi a single.. 15k on Bulldogs@ 1.40 to beat Penrith:Panthers won And thats why I changed what I was doing and worked harder to figure stuff out.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th)

You do alright bro,it's all trial and error untill you find what works for you,you seem to look things through well so eventually you will realise what your doing right and what your doing wrong,I meant no offence with the betting on 1.50 thing and I hope none was taken,i rate you as having a future doing this so keep at it. Good call on the City/Villa match,you know your stuff mate.:notworthy

Absolutely no offence taken mate. Was more just putting it out there as a discussion. I think it's ok to make them, but as with all things you gotta be selective. I think it's good to discuss betting as a principle here in these threads. Strategies and philosophies to betting can be just as important as discussion of the NRL itself. Dan, regarding the 1.50 shots, I'm not against them. If Chelsea played at home to Watford in the Premier League and you gave me 1.50 I'd be on everyday of the week (all things being normal). That being said, taking the 1.50 on the X2 option in a football match because one team is better might not necessarily be as good a reason for betting the option (as opposed to the opinion that the price is too big). As for the multis, you're not really backing a 2.25 shot - you are backing a 1.50 shot two times. Sticking 2 of them together IMO doesn't really make something a better bet (though I can see occasionally how it might be).

[Dan-e]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) Ill tell you my Strategy that i've been on for 3 years which doesn't work but i still use it. i tell myself not do but i always think the favourites are going to win....... a never do single bets... only multis...... i picks odds of around 1.1 - 1.60 in a multi of around 2 to 8 legs.... all favourites in my multi and doesnt matter if i have 2 legs or 8 legs in my multi i seem to always loose by 1 because theres an upset in the multi. an example of this is this year maria kirilenko lost against anne kremer and kirilenko was only paying 1.20 so she was a clear favourite. obviously not. so i need to change my strategy doesnt pay off.. theres always an upset dosnt matter if its federer or nadal playing or chelsea or man utd or like this year Dallas against GS.and denver winning. I never relised that there are so many upsets... i always thought the favourites win 90% of the time....so now you know my shit losing strategy that i need to change but i guess everyone starts like that betting on clear favourites.... any opinions out there on how yous bet and your strategy?? thanks

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) I very rarely bet on Tennis and if I do it's on the long odds outrights (I had Haas for the Aus Open @ 220s this year but never layed off - silly move really, should have locked in profit). As for the Soccer, I went through a period where I'd just back Chelsea/Man U at home, lay 0-0 in Werder/AZ games etc. You won most of the time and when you got a roll going you felt like you are selecting well but ultimately it's not a profitable thing to do. At that point I had a look at what was happening and how I could make money out of it. I don't really have any great betting strategies or anything, but I did find one that's going pretty well. In the past 4 months it's produced about 5 $50.00 winners, a couple of $100 winners and just last week I had a $38 winner when Villareal beat Barca. I've not got the experience or knowledge to pass on that Jumbo has but IMO the best thing I can say is look at the upsets that are happening and after your done being pissed off at losing on one of them look for a way to profit from them. For me I have to make the selections somewhat systematic as I can't view the games for myself, but there's nothing wrong with that if you can find the right approach.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) I'll give you some advice bro... First off though give yourself a pat on the back because you have already identified where you are going wrong,that is not embarassing,that is progress,I might be a while mate,so i'll put this up and then start with some other stuff,ok.

[Dan-e]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) yeh theer you go.. that always happens to me.. you would think man utd would of won 4-0 at odds of 1.25. makes no sense to me... are these games fixed of what more examples of some of my bets from this week had $900 at 10.1 WTA Bdp Dnldou-Arn Hd2Hd DANIILIDOU Eleni @Price:1.5 27263WON ATP Csb Rmrz-H-Ascion Hd2Hd RAMIREZ-HIDALGO Ruben @Price:1.6 27258WON ATP Bcl Schukin-Dvydnk Hd2Hd DAVYDENKO Nikolay @Price:1.1 27222 ATP Bcl Mantll-Moya Hd2Hd MOYA Carlos @Price:1.16 27287WON GICQUEL Marc @Price:1.53 27223WON 27227 NIEMINEN Jarkko @Price:1.55WOn ATP Bcl Pavel-Pshkns Hd2Hd PAVEL Andrei @Price:1.4LOST

[Dan-e]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) hey crouch potato thanks heaps for the advice... its just abit hard picking outright winner paying over $50.... ad how did you get odds of $38 for vilarreal to beat Barcelona??? my bookie was only paying $4.25 for the Villareal win....... what bookie you use?? TAB sportbet? No worries Jumbo... take your time........and one thing aswell...like you were saying before alot of people post up picks but they never win.... im not saying its their fault but like you said somethimes its because maybe they want you to loose.. who knows..... we should all work together because at the end of the day the bookmakers are the enemy. i see no point in people wanting you to loose unless they work for a bookmaker.....

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th)

hey crouch potato thanks heaps for the advice... its just abit hard picking outright winner paying over $50.... ad how did you get odds of $38 for vilarreal to beat Barcelona??? my bookie was only paying $4.25 for the Villareal win....... what bookie you use?? TAB sportbet?

It wasn't a match odds bet mate. I had the correct score 2-0. Bet was with Betfair. As for picking a $50 winner, it's damn bloody hard mate. It's not the fact I had one that's important here (not trying to brag at all), but by looking at firstly what went wrong, and then by looking to profit from it rather than just being pissed, I've found a way of betting that will make me profits long term. For the record the winners stated I was only on a couple of them, but had I applied the same methodology that I discovered by analysing, I would definitely have been on them, which for the purposes of research etc. I think is just as good as a win as it gives affirmation that it's a winning principle that I've found. Still, I've got a long way to go but at least I'm making progress now. I probably play too many NRL sidemarkets and not enough primary markets, but I know there's a bit of value in teh side markets too as less people play them and they're more prone to being mispriced. I was annoyed the other day when the Sharks won (well, I was pleased for those who took them but on a personal level was disappointed) as I fancied the -8.5 at 1.80 but took the Sharks team score 31-40 @ 4.00 instead. I do believe that there's money in the markets I play but currently I don't think I'm maximizing opportunities with the right combination of bets and staking.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) I'll first off give you a few rules I have found valuble. 1.Never go against what you think. 2.Listen to others,but not to much.Take what you found good about what they said and try to incorparate it into your own statergy. 3.DO NOT LISTEN TO NEWS PAPER PICKERS OR SO CALLED EXPERTS. 4.Learn from your mistakes,never just think"I LOST" and thats it,you did something wrong ask yourself "what was it I did wrong" 5.Stats are a useful tool but are only one tool for the punter,there are other tools as well. 6.In order to make a steady profit pick one sport mainly the one you like the most and stick with it for the entire season,don't stray away from it to often. 7.Watch for teams with motivation,such as the end of the Football season in Europe when teams are trying to avoid relagation,make cup spots,etc,etc.Same as MBA,NHL,MLB teams need to win sometimes and teams don't,for example the last week in the NBA which is passed now but it is always full of upsets waiting to be picked,top sides rest players,bookmakers keep their normal odds in the hope that you won't go and look for yourself. There is alot of stuff to take into consideration if you really want to do this well,Stats,motivation,new coach,sacked coach,players looking for contracts,players trying to get new contracts.Most pro sports people are alot like us,when we need something we try harder if we don'nt we genrally don't try as hard.They are the same,we look at them as rich pricks but they get paid for what they do and like us when it matters they try harder,so watch for those situations. Never boast or brag about how good you think you are,we are all one win away from a loss.And people love it when you lose. Also a loss is a loss,it happens to us all,don't feel to bad about it as it can affect your thinking. Just because a bookmaker has some one as fav,look for yourself.Bookmakers are not our buddys they want your money and give false odds to suck you in. We are all lucky now we have the web and everyting you need is right here,just look.If you are working,do it at night,in order to be decent at punting you have to use loads of time finding stuff out,who's in,who's out,past history,recent history,form,stats all that stuff.Anything to do with what you are trying to win money off,check fan blogs,check all sites with anything to do with what you are intrested in. After a while all these things become less and less important as you learn as you go and after a while it all becomes automatic,you know what you need to look at and what does'nt help,but it will take a while and you need to do it yourself,it does take time,but when you get good the time was worth it. I could just stop now and be happy but i've decided to try to help others,although I have already found that most people think they are always correct and don't want to listen,it's very frustrating.I'm outta NZ next year and then the punting stops,I have enoug money to live on for the rest of my life,but more impotant is that I have a wife and children who are all safe and well. So you see if I can do it anybody can if they are willing to listen and learn from others,it's not hard.I really hope this helps you in some small way,i've given you a rough run down of specific things you should look for,now it's up to you to try and learn.If I have missed stuff out you wanted then say so and i'll answer you again,but good luck with whatever you choose to do,I hope it all go's well for you.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) Afetr all my babbling I forgot the two most impotant things. GREED is a killer,be serious about it if you want to profit. Don't combo for profit.Did you know that bookies make more money from combos than most other things.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th)

Afetr all my babbling I forgot the two most impotant things. GREED is a killer,be serious about it if you want to profit. Don't combo for profit.Did you know that bookies make more money from combos than most other things.

From too much of my own personal experience, I would like to add 'chasing' as one of the ultimate evils of gambling. Jumbo mate, I'm sure I speak for all when I say thanks for sharing your experiences and thoughts in a very helpful and open fashion.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th)

From too much of my own personal experience, I would like to add 'chasing' as one of the ultimate evils of gambling. Jumbo mate, I'm sure I speak for all when I say thanks for sharing your experiences and thoughts in a very helpful and open fashion.

You are more than welcome,if this helps any of you then I am more than pleased,good luck to all.:)

[Dan-e]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) Hey Jumbo thanks for sharing your thoughts about betting. it will definately help me with my picks. Everything yo usaif he spot on..... i couldn't of said it any better , i don't think anyone could of said any better. yeh like you said stick with one sport... my main sport is Tennis but i would of thought it would be better if you vary your sports. Man you had a pretty full on like. but by the sounds of it your life couldnt be any better.... your making more than lawyers and engineers. yeh but like gambling is a full time job.

[D3Z1R3]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) dan-e.. if ur keen on multi's and always seem to lose because of 1 leg..sportingbet.com.au offers a parlay system.. where u can bet on different types of multi's called yankees', or lucky 15. its like if u have chelsea, man utd, everton, portsmouth all to win.. it will do several multi bets.. chelsea/man utd/everton/portsmouth and chelsea/man utd/everton and chelsea/man utd/portsmouth and chelsea/man utd and portsmouth/everton.. etc. i dont understand it completely myself but it might help you if you are only losing ur multi's by 1 leg... as u will win some using this system.. however personally i prefer single bets

[D3Z1R3]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) boys.. are there any sites that offer good stats on NRL?

[rod_steel]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th)

boys.. are there any sites that offer good stats on NRL?

NRL.com.au is pretty comprehensive

[Mr Flamboyant]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) .

[D3Z1R3]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) fri nights games im not too sure about.. they didnt stand out at first look.. but ive decided to take them on smaller stakes.. 2pts Broncos 1-12 @3.75 3pts Storm 1-12 @3.30 0.2pts draw ive placed more on storm simply because i can see them winning. 2pts Bulldogs 1-12 @3.15 1.5pts Wests 1-12 @4.55 0.2pts draw ive changed bulldogs to 2pts because as jack daniels said .. wests have a good record against the dogs.. ive been to a few games(wests supporter) and seen wests win as underdogs will be placing significantly larger amounts on later games.. in particular gold coast parramatta

[rod_steel]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th) Like the Tigers as well Mr Flamboyant, gonna tail you there. Have to look at the stats but pretty sure from memory their record over the dogs has been quite good recently

[pete]

Re: NRL Rugby - Round 7 (April 25th 30th)

boys.. are there any sites that offer good stats on NRL?

Dave Middleton's web site www.RugbyLeagueForm.com is a good site, log on to free stats and you can look at each game head to head and usefull stats.