Libertadores Cup 19-20/04

[Xcout]

Banfield (ARG) vs Libertad (PAR) Thursday, April 19, 2007 01:30hrs (CET Time) Stadium: Florencio Sola Referee: Carlos Eugenio Simon (Brasil) Last Match: Libertad 1 - 0 Banfield Banfield (Argentina) This match will define their participation in the cup. The team has showed strong on home, where they have collect two victories from their two matches at home and at least with 2 goals cushion. In away the team finish with one victory, to the weakest team of the group and two defeats which has Banfield with 9 points and posibility to qualified to the next round. To be able to qualified directly Banfield needs the victory as this game is against first place Libertad, a draw could also get the team trought just if America is unable to win their game against El Nacional, so in order to depend on themselves they need to obtain the victory. In local league the team lost 2-3 in home against Velez, this broke a streak of four matches unbeaten and mantains the team in 16th position with 8 points out of nine games, 17 points from first place. What makes that Banfield focus all their forces in Libertadores Cup qualification to next round. Libertad (Paraguay) Open the tournament with authority with a home victory against Banfield, then went and obtain an atonish victory in Mexico 1-4. Against El Nacional the team obtain a draw and a victory to be on the first place of the group one, something really unexpected at the beggining of the Cup. But altought a very good performance the team lost the first match point they had to obtain qualification as they lost 1-2 to America in home, match where they began winning 1-0 and due to an expelled playerd and America great comeback allow defeat. This lead the team still on first position of the group but just one point ahead of CF America and CA Banfield. In this match the team have in their power the qualification as a draw or victory would pull them in second round, with victory secure first place and with draw could end at second place the worst. But if they lost and America is able to won against El Nacional, then Libertad would be eliminated ending in a tragic way their good start. If something had the team showed is strong defense as they are the best one of the group with just four goals allowed and particularly against Banfield the team didn't allow goal in the first match between them. Also is to highlight the scoring where they have scored in every single game they had played, but here is to noted that in four matches the team have score just one goal, and it was only the away match against America that they scored four goals. In local league the team won with authorirty 4-0 to Sportivo Trinidense last round to mantain on the second position now tie with 18 points with Cerro Porteño that lost this round, but Cerro Porteño has one match remaining which could create a gap of three points between them. With this the team reach a streak of four consecutive matches without lossing, three of them victories. But overall streak in all tournaments isn't possible as they lost with America on Libertadores Cup compromising their qualification still with the future in their hands. Suspended: MF Pablo Guiñazú Injured: DF Pedro Sarabia Match: I expect a tight match, with Banfield worry more to attack than Libertad, which is going to use their defending and counterattacking system that brings them good results. Time will be fundamental and in second part will be the enemy for Banfield if they are unable to score. But as over 2.5 goals are more often in this group this could the otherwise. Odds: 1X2 2.15 Banfield 3.25 Libertad 3.30 AH 2.18 Banfield 0:1/2 Libertad 1.68 O/U Over 2.5 2.00 Under 2.5 1.80 Prediction: Tight match that odds tends to favor Banfield, but Libertad isn't a easy away team so I find a very rispid game that Banfield will press more. But I found value on Libertad 1/2AH 2/10, this because if America is unable to be winning, then a draw could get both in next stage and also Libertad in away hasn't lost. For O/U altought this group delivers over 2.5 goals matches, I think this match is harder to determine as Banfield attacking could end in two things, or they taking the lead or Libertad taking the lead with a goal because of the open spaces Banfield leave. Still this lead to No Beat as good defense can appeat with Libertad fall back, I think that live betting could be an option.

[Xcout]

Re: Libertadores Cup 19-20/04 Club America (MEX) vs El Nacional (ECU) Thursday, April 19, 2007 01:30hrs (CET Time) Stadium: Azteca Referee: Manuel Andarcia (Venezuela) Last match: El Nacional 1 - 2 Club America Club America (Mexico) With last victory against Libertad 1-2 away the team has their qualification at hand. America has been irregular, as can obtain two victories 1-2 in away, lost 3-1 to Banfield. In home his performance also haven't been regular, with one defeat 1-4 and one victory 4-0. Is contradictory how the matches the team didn't field the best team take the best resulst as the two away victories and the matches with best team available as against Banfield in Argentina and Libertad on home where hard defeats. America victory will granted a place in next stage of the Cup, a draw will keep them alive depending the result of Banfield match, and even a defeat could get them trough if Banfield don't take a point in their match against Libertad. In local tournament the team won 2-1 to Tecos UAG, three points that granted a direct ticket for playoffs for the title. The team is on the third position and the best position the club can end is second overall as first place Pachuca is unrechable.This grants peace to America for focusing on obtaining the qualification to next stage in Libertadores Cup. The team have on their lineup the current score leader FW Salvador Cabañas that has showed more contundency in this stage than in local tournament. The team have been pressed by the media to decide for just one tournament and even with the bad moments two weeks ago this was being consider by the team, but now they have claim they are going for both tournaments, and the problem will be the schedule as some matches of mexican playoffs could have the same as Libertadores Cup next stages. Suspended: FW Daniel Bilos El Nacional (Ecuador) The team is eliminated for the Cup and is going to play this match because of duty and to fight for some honor, their best result was a draw against Libertad on home, out of that the tema has collected just defeats. After the draw the team has two matches with defeats. There is nothing in play for the team just to obtain a victory in this edition of the tournament. In overall the team has allow goal in every match they have play with speaks of very bad defending. For attacking the team score one goal in their first three matches, out of that in the remaining two the team has been unable to score, so in overall the team in Libertadores Cup has been a disaster. The consolation for the team is they are already qualified for Sudamericana Cup in next august. In last local league match the team won 3-1 to LDU Quito, which serves the team to get to 5th position with 14 points out of 10 matches, four points from first place. With this the team accumulates four matches without defeat in local tournament, three of them being victories. Odds: 1X2 1.20 America (Mexico) 6.00 El Nacional 13.00 AH 1.70 America (Mexico) 1 1/2:0 El Nacional 2.03 AH 2.23 America (Mexico) 2:0 El Nacional 1.59 O/U Over 3 1.73 Under 3 2.06 O/U OVer 3.5 2.22 under 3.5 1.64 Prediction: America has everything in their power to obtain qualification, home match, the best team available which seems to be going into a good moment. Still what holds from taking the team against a huge handicap against, is that went taking the victory the team laid back and counterattacks, now El Nacional doesn't dispute anything and could helps the team to play more relax and focus and not fall in going full atacking and leaving spaces. But as high scoring could lead the team to end into the best eight first places so this could act and not lead the team to laid back. So I found it hard, but I sense that El Nacional 2AH 3/10 has value. For O/U it seems that America will aim for scoring goals,but we can't grant they are going to obtain it El Nacional haven't been that bad in defense as teams in other groups, even they have the same goals against that America, the lack of the team is scoring. So I found No BET as the option.

[Xcout]

Re: Libertadores Cup 19-20/04 Flamengo (BRA) vs Bamin Real Potosí (BOL) Thursday, April 19, 2007 03:45hrs (CET Time) Stadium: Mario Filho (Maracana) Referee: Líber Prudente (Uruguay) Last Match: Real Potosi 2 - 2 Flamengo Flamego (Brasil) The team is qualified to next round, due to their good performance with four victories and one draw,has secure the first position of the group. This could make thing that could relax in this match,but considering the system that Conmebol uses to determinte the rivals in the next stage. The system is position in a table the first places of the group and in another table the second places. The first place of the first places groups goes against the last place of the second places table, and so on. So in resume a better place in the table of the first groups grants a supposed "weaker" team in next stage. The team have show more effective than anything helps, as they have won thee matches by one goal cushion, and just one by two goal cushion, meanwhile drawing the opener against Bamin Real Potosi (which they will encounter here). In local tournament Carioca, the team won 4-1 to America/RJ to went to 7th position with 9 points out of six matches, which has the team six points from first place Botafogo. With this reulst the team goes to a streak of two consecutive victories. Counting Libertadores Cup the team reaches three consecutives matches winning. Bamin Real Potosi (Bolivia) The team arrives with posibilities to qualified to the next round,due to a great libertadores cup according to the team capabilities, the team open drawing with Flamengo which gave hopes to the team, then went to Parana and lost as in home Brazilian teams are strong. Then on the serie against U.A. Maracaibo took two draws one in home and one in away. And the victory that brings the team to life was the last home match against Parana, where the team take a good second half with two goals to get a 3-1 victory that has the team with chances. The team have a strong and hard road match infront, the team is facing Flamengo on home, place where Brazilians teams tend to be more effective and offensive, and their only good result is victory but even there is Parana won by one more goal cushion than they, then Real Potosí will be eliminated. Now the desire scenario for the team is winning and that Parana don't win, or draw against Flamengo and that Parana lost or draw. Even defeat could represent qualification if Paraná lost against U.A. Maracaibo. But reality is far from their desire scenario, and altought it seems imposible the team is going to do their best to take a good results that can make their dream came true. Last local league match the team draw 1-1 to Jorge Wilstermann in away to take a point that send the team to six position with 11 points from seven matches, three points from first place Universitario Sucre, but Real Potosí has a match remaining which if winning will sends the team to first position. With the draw the team reaches three matches without defeat, the first two of them being victories. If taking in consideration last Libertadores Cup the streak grows to four unbeaten matches. Match: Flamengo will fight to end as the best first place and for that they can't afford a negative result here, even being in home is best for this team. Real Potosi is against a mission that is less probable to happen. Odds: 1X2 1.22 Flamengo 6.00 Real Potosí 11.00 AH 1.80 Flamengo 0:1 1/2 Real Potosí 1.88 AH 2.44 Flamengo 0:2 Real Potosí 1.49 O/U Over 3 1.73 Under 3 2.06 O/U Over 3.5 2.22 Under 3.5 1.64 Prediction: I consider that Flamengo will impose their quality and more because being home, Real Potosi will put their best performance but in home hardly some one beat brazilian teams. Considering that Real Potosi away defeats, (one in brazil) had been the most by two goals cushion, I consider value to relay on Flamengo -1 1/2AH 4/10. For O/U I expect a over 3 goals match, as only one match that Real Potosí haven't score, and Flemando has score in every match they had played, so Over 3 4/10

[Xcout]

Re: Libertadores Cup 19-20/04 Parana (BRA) vs U. A. Maracaibo (VEN) Thursday, April 19, 2007 03:45hrs (CET Time) Stadium: Durival Britto e Silva Referee: Juan Pablo Pompei (Argentina) Last Match: U.A. Maracaibo 2 - 4 Parana Parana (Brasil) The team has great posibilities to get to next round, still the team is going into free fall, open the tournament with away victory to Maracaibo, then in home claim victory against Real Potosí. Then on serie against Flamengo, lost 1-0 both times, in home and away. Still was on second place and with great options, but went to play against Real Potosi and lost 3-1, match that marks their bad moment. Now the team is relegated to third position and compromising his qualification to next stage. The has a match in which even a draw could get them to next round, if Real Potosí doesn't won. Because if tied with Real Potosí in points goal average will come in and both are equal on it. So in case of a victory of both Real Potosí and Paraná, Paraná needs to won by more goals than Potosí to get to next round. In favor of the team is that playing on home Brazilian teams perform better and have taken very good results and as Real potosi is going on away to play Flamengo then that is also working in favor of Paraná. In local tournament Paranaense, the team tied 0-0 to Atletico Paranaense to break a streak of two defeats, one in local tournament and one in Libertadores Cup. With this result the team have to visit Atletico Paranaense in the second leg on the semifinal. U.A. Maracaibo (Venezuela) The team has been unable to won in this Libertadores Cup edition, and is eliminated and doesn't have qualification to next stage posibilities. The team has showed the worst defense of the group , with four over 2.5 goals scoreline and just one match with under 2.5 goals scoreline. Maracaibo "best" feature is the attack as they have been able to score in every single match they have played, still the lack of defending is what aparts the team from having chances to qualified and deliver a very bad performance. Last local league match, the team won 3-1 to Mineros Guayana to claim second place and move to third place precisely Mineros Guayana. With this victory the team reaches 25 points and puts three points from first place Caracas FC, but as Maracaibo has a match pending and if taking full points then would tie Caracas FC in first place with 28 points. His performance in local tournament is the contrary to the one dispaly in Libertadores Cup. With this victory the team reaches eight matches without defeat, defeat that came precisly to Mineros Guayana. Match: Parana on home is more deadly than away, and should fixed the free fall the team is into and they are against a rival that hardly can put an opposition in away. Odds: 1X2 1.20 Paraná 5.25 Maracaibo 10.00 AH 1.80 Paraná 0:1 1/2 Maracaibo 2.05 O/U Over 3 1.90 Under 3 1.90 Prediction: I expect Paraná to continue their good home performance and impose at least by two goals cushion, so Parana -1 1/2 AH 3/10 should appear on the match. Maracaibo will put the best defense they can, but they will fall against Paraná. In O/U I expect a match with plenty of goal chances and over 3 1/10 should get in the match, still considering that just one team will posses most of the chances,then no so strong staking.

[Xcout]

Re: Libertadores Cup 19-20/04 Alianza Lima (PER) vs Sao Paulo (BRA) Thursday, April 19, 2007 04:30hrs (CET Time) Stadium: Alejandro Villanueva Referee: Alfredo Intriago (Ecuador) Last Match: Sao Paulo 4 - 0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima (Peru) Even with two matches left to play, they are eliminated from the cup, as they haven't been able to get another result than defeat. The team defense is the worst of the group, and their best display has been their last match against Audax Italiano as they hold the team to allowed just one goal. The offensive is their worst feature with just two goals, which came against Audax Italiano and Necaxa on home matches. But in away the team hasn't been able to scored. In local tournament the team draw 1-1 against Melgar Arequipa (which is of the top five of the tournament). This result hold the team in first place with 22 points from 13 matches. Still Univ. San Martin has 20 points with two matches remaining and if won those will move Alianza from first place, also Melgar Arequipa has 20 points with one match remaining, which higlights the resulst that Alianza obtain, so Alianza Lima could fall to third place as the worst. Sao Paulo (Brasil) The team has make a regular Libertadores Cup, display not according to being the runner up for the title of last year. In away the team has been a disaster as they get a point from Audax in Chile, and lost against Necaxa in México and now another away match awaits them. Home display has been strong in home with two victories, with at least a three goal cushion in each one, this points are what has the team with a good position. Even the team could climb to first position as Necaxa and Audax Italino has one more match played. The defeat doesn't eliminated the team as they close the group stage against Audax Italiano in home and thanks to the huge difference in goal average that is favoring Sau Paulo. But victory here will position the team in first position and in pole position for qualification. Defense is the best feature of the team, which in four matches have only allow two goals, even those two came just in one match, which was against Necaxa in México. Out of that in the remaining three they have mantain their net with 0 goals allowed. In local tournament Paulista the team has reach semifinals, where they draw 0-0 to Bragantino on away, to streach their unbeaten streak for five matches first three victories and last two draws. Counting Libertadores Cup the streak goes up to six matches without defeat. Match: Sao Paulo will put a fierce stand to correct their away step, meanwhile Alianza Lima would put the best they can to fight for their honor as they are already eliminated. Sao Paulo improving and Alianza Lima in the same bad stage as in the beggining. Odds: 1X2 5.50 Alianza Lima 3.60 Sao Paulo 1.53 AH 2.32 Alianza Lima 1/2:0 Sao Paulo 1.55 AH 1.72 Alianza Lima 1:0 Sao Paulo 2.01 O/U Over 2.5 1.95 Under 2.5 1.85 Prediction: I expect sao Paulo to came back their spirit and perform better and with this be able to take something valueable from Alianza Lima for the last match of the groups stage. Still as Sao Paulo isn't so hard on away, I see value on Sao Paulo -1AH 2/10 as I expect them to improve against a weak team but is still to see how much. For O/U I sense that this match could end with goals as Alianza Lima defense is one of the worst and their attack lead a lot to wish so Sao Paulo should enjoy of the best chances. so Over 2.5 3/10.

[Giovanni]

Re: Libertadores Cup 19-20/04 Sao Paulo at 1.60 with Fonbet no so high, but IMO good to take. Alianza Lima vs Sao Paulo Alianza Lima, well in peruvian contest, excepted the last 2 matches, no so well perfomanced, didn't take any point from Libertadores Cup first phase. Sao Paulo, currently out of first 2 places, should have not troubles to catch the qualify: they are standing behind Audax Italiano (3 points over) and Necaxa (2 points over) but both with 1 match played more and the brazilian team will wait for Audax, at home, in the last match. Motivation should be to take the 1st place of the Group and even to don't run risk anyway; more Sao Paulo, despite they should rest players as Leandro and Souza tonight, has important rost, surely superior under quality than the home side.

[Xcout]

Re: Libertadores Cup 19-20/04 Resume Overall Result: -9.97U The lack of scoring in home of the brazilian teams deliver losses for this day. Banfield 0 - 1 Libertad Libertad 1/[email protected] 2/10 = +1.36U America 2 - 1 Nacional Nacional [email protected] 3/10= +1.77U Flamengo 1 - 0 Real Potosi Flamengo -1 1/2AH @1.80 4/10 = -4U Over 3 @ 1.73 4/10 = -4U Parana 2 - 1 Maracaibo Parana -1 1/[email protected] 3/10 = -3U Over 3@ 1.90 1/10 = +0.90U Alianza Lima 0 - 1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo -1AH@ 2.01 2/10 = 0U Over [email protected] 3/10 = -3U

[Xcout]

Re: Libertadores Cup 19-20/04 Internacional (BRA) vs Club Nacional Montevideo(URU) Friday, April 20, 2007 01:15hrs (CET Time) Stadium: José Pinheiro Borda (Beira-Rio) Referee: Rubén Selman (Chile) Last Match: Club Nacional 3 - 1 Internacional Internacional (Brasil) The current Champion of the Cup remains with possibilities as they won 1-2 to Emelec to have a slight chance to get to next round. But for this the team needs to win in this match by four goals the least. In order to tie with Nacional in points and won in the goal average comparation. This is needed if Velez win their match. But if Velez draw and Internacional won by any scoreline, then Internacional and Nacional would be on next stage and Velez Sarsfield would be eliminated. But Internacional can't expect for Emelec to obtain something in Argentina and needs to make goals here to obtain a comfortable victory. In home the team won 3-0 to Emelec and then was unable to score against the tight defense of Velez Sarsfield, now the team face a like defense with the objetive to score four times. It is expecte the team will go out with a offensive lineup almost four attacking players, but the coach stated that this doesn't mean they will give up defensive to go out attacking like crazy. Brazilian teams in home have show strong, still yersteday both teams miss to beat the handicap line as they indeed won but both by just one goal. Is hard that a away team take points from there, just Chivas Guadalajara (Mexico) has been able to take a categoric victory. Absences: MF Alex Club Nacional Montevideo (Uruguay) The team last two victories (El Nacional and Velez) have send the team to the first position of the group, and with good options to get to next round it all goes trough a away match against Internacional (current Champion) in Brazil. In away the team haven't been able to win, hold Velez to a 1-1 draw and lost against Emelec by 1-0. So if something has been to obtain is good defending as have allowed just one goal per match. Even in overall the team have allowed one goal per match in four matches, with one clean sheet against Velez this in the last match. The team needs to avoid defeat, something that on away they have allowed once, and they have to put out their best dispaly to be able to obtain something, because defeat is the only result that takes them out of the next stage qualification. As a draw and a victory get them trough. Injured: MF Marco Vanzini Match: Internacional will focus on getting the most scoring chances to be able to score most of them and focus also on defense as Nacional will not go to laid back and this could help them get a good result. Odds: 1X2 1.50 Internacional SC 4.05 Nacional Montevideo 8.71 Prediction: Tight match that is tricky as Nacional with any result can get trought, but I expect a good performance of the team, but as Internacional as Brazilian teams in home grows and I expect at least a victory by a goal of Internacional, so Internacional 3/10 as that odds aren't something incredible, but worth that stake.

[Xcout]

Re: Libertadores Cup 19-20/04 Gimnasia LP (ARG) vs Defensor Sporting (URU) Friday, April 20, 2007 03:30hrs (CET Time) Stadium: Ciudad de la Plata Referee: Salvio Fagundes(Brasil) Last Match: Defensor Sporting 3 - 0 Gimnasia LP Gimnasia LP (Argentina) Mantains with options in the Cup after defeating Deportivo Pasto in last match to obtain three points that put the team three points from second place Defensor Sporting. The team has show lack of quality in this participation as has allowed three defeats against the top two teams of this group and their victories came against Deportivo Pasto only. The team is the second worst defense of the group with just one less goal than Deporitvo Pasto defense. In the first four matches of the team, they allowed at least two goals, meanwhile in the last one was their first clean sheet as they hold Deportivo Pasto to not scoring, but that is the weakers offensive which give less relevance to that achievement. The team needs to win this match at least by five goals to be able to qualified to next round as with the victory they would tie Defensor Sporting in points but need the five goals to overpass them in goal average. Which by Defensor Sporting defense doesn't look like an easy task. The team efforts are focus to the weekend derby against Estudiantes La Plata and will field a substitute team. This will diminish the team performance. Defensor Sporting (Uruguay) The team has shown a very good tournament and has their qualification at hand to grab, collect three victories, two from Deportivo Pasto and one against Gimansia LP in the opener by 3-0. The only downsize for the team have allow Santos to beat them twice. With that performance the team sits on the second position with 9 points, three from third place Gimansia LP which encounter here to define the qualified team for next stage of the cup. The team have two clean sheets, one against Deportivo Pasto and the other against Gimnasia LP. Has allow four goals, in just three matches, three of those from Santos and just one from Deportivo Pasto, which speaks of very good defense and tought if taking out Santos in this consideration. Defensor Sporting have a great chance to getting in the next stage their position allows them than victory, draw or even lossing 3-0 gets them trough the next stage. This could gave them peace to work more the game and deliver a very good result for the team. Match: Gimnasia needs to deliver a very good peformance something they have lack even on home, where they have a victory by barely a goal and a defeat by a goal, both of them with over score. So they need a great improvement and I don't see it anywhere near. Defensor Sporting has chance in counterattack as the clock advances. Odds: AH 2.49 Gimnasia La Plata 0:1 Defensor Sporting 1.48 Prediction: GImansia LP needs to take the lead quickly or the clock will be their worst friend, and I sense there is a lot of value on Defensor Sporting 1AH 3/10 as Defensor has show great defending and good playmaking, meanwhile Gimnasia defense leave a lot to wish. For O/U I sense a Over 3 2/10 match, which because of both defenses doesn't seems to clear, but I expect that spaces will be plenty and so goal scoring chances.

[clow red]

Re: Libertadores Cup 19-20/04

Sport	Football (S.America)
Event	Gimnasia La Plata x Defensor
Selection	draw (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	19/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 3.60 (Lay)
Reasoning	Crucial Game for both teams, the necessary Gimnasia to be successful for 4 gols of difference to pass eighth in the libertadores, what the open game will leave today. Exactly needing to golear, the Gimnasia will enter today in field with substitutes, since its priority is the classic of La Plata in the sunday against the Estudiantes. The Defensor is at a good moment, currently in the first position of the Uruguayan championship. I find that the Gimnasia obtains the three points today, I do not know will obtain the 4 gols, but the team of the defensor is dangerous and will be able to mark in the counterattacks. Lay draw and over(back) for me

[clow red]

Re: Libertadores Cup 19-20/04

Sport	Football (S.America)
Event	Gimnasia La Plata x Defensor
Selection	over 2,5
Strength	10/10
Date	19/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 1.81 (Back)
Reasoning	Crucial Game for both teams, the necessary Gimnasia to be successful for 4 gols of difference to pass eighth in the libertadores, what the open game will leave today. Exactly needing to golear, the Gimnasia will enter today in field with substitutes, since its priority is the classic of La Plata in the sunday against the Estudiantes. The Defensor is at a good moment, currently in the first position of the Uruguayan championship. I find that the Gimnasia obtains the three points today, I do not know will obtain the 4 gols, but the team of the defensor is dangerous and will be able to mark in the counterattacks. Lay draw and over(back) for me

[Xcout]

Re: Libertadores Cup 19-20/04 Resume April 20, 2007 Overall result: -1.50U Internacional 1 - 0 Nacional [email protected] 3/10 = +1.50U Gimansia LP 3 - 0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 1AH@ 1.48 3/10 = -3U Clow red very good picks!

[clow red]

Re: Libertadores Cup 19-20/04 Ty Xcout :ok