Aintree 13/04/07

[mowgli77]

Selections here please :ok Friday the 13th - unlucky for some (hopefully Ladbrokes, William Hill, Corals, PaddyPower, Bet365 etc etc :hope )

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	2.00 Aintree
Selection	Aces Four
Strength	10/10
Date	13/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 4.00 (Back)
Reasoning	If your looking for a win bet in the 1st race then Aces Four looks the most likely winner. Loves these marathon trips, got close to Denman at Cheltenham (in front of Ungaro and Turko)and has won on good ground on 3 occasions. Not sure Turko is suited by 3 mile, same for Faasel and Ungaro most likely to turn form around with Aces Four but not won over this trip. Ferdy Murphy has his horses in great form and has the national favourite on Saturday. Finish will hopefully be between Aces Four and Killaghy Castle.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	2.00 Aintree
Selection	Killaghy Castle (Each-Way)
Strength	5/10
Date	13/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 8.50 (Back)
Reasoning	Trainer missed Cheltenham purposely as the horse needed to recover from an over reach and needed more schooling. He stated if it was good ground it would go over 3mile at Aintree. Lightly raced and the 3 runs this season have seen 2 wins and a 2nd, all in lower class races. Seems like natural progression to try a Graded race and although I had stamina worries having read trainers comments i'm not that worried now. Looks a likely improver, fresher than most, has a recent run under it's belt and ew value in my opinion. Has to beat Ungaro and Aces Four.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	2.35 Aintree
Selection	Chief Dan George (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	13/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 34.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Hard to see past Wichita Lineman confirming Cheltenham form but in no rush to get involved at odds on. After the front 3 in the betting the rest seem pretty ordinary but Chief Dan George has winning form in Grade 2 hurdles and has been placed on good ground. Really fancied this ew at Cheltenham but it faded tamely, not suited by the track maybe or simply not good enough? Is one of only 3 distance winners in the race and 33-1 looks a huge price worth a small ew bet. In the last 10 runnings of the race only 3 odds on favs have won, other years have seen horses win at 12-1, 14-1 and 16-1.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	3.10 Aintree
Selection	Monets Garden (Each-Way)
Strength	5/10
Date	13/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	totesport @ 7.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Scoped badly after Cheltenham run but before that looked very classy and jumped really well that day. Has won on good ground and is a top class Grade 1 horse on its day. Well Chief looks the main danger but who wants to get involved after getting their fingers burned at Cheltenham with another short odds on price? Hard to see Monets Garden not being in the first 3 and is worthy of ew interest at the price although I think it has every chance to win. Has won at Aintree over hurdles and should be better than most of these. Feel that Well Chief is highly rated because of previous form and one good recent run but price is too short. Monets Garden looks to be the value ew bet in the race. Taranis capable of improvement and a real danger.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	3.45 Aintree
Selection	Lord Of Illusion (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	13/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 21.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Likes to bowl along in front and dropped back in trip after weakening last twice at trips over 3m+. I fancied this for the Grand National so fact that trainer runs it in a handicap might suggest he thinks they have more chance of winning this race. Has won on good ground and when looking good at Cheltenham in 2006 ran off a rating of 136, goes off 134 today and recent winners (last 6 years) have carried between 10-0 and 10-12, this carries 10-5. Decent handicap mark and worthy of a small ew bet at a decent price.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	3.45 Aintree
Selection	Briery Fox (Each-Way)
Strength	3/10
Date	13/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 13.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Ran well at Worcester off 128, winning and running on well in a class 3 chase over a similar trip. Placed 3rd at 40-1 at Sandown over a trip that was probably too far in a class 2 chase. Goes off 134 rating today, 6lbs higher than its winning mark at Worcester but back over a more suitable trip. Has won and placed on good ground and definite ew possibilities at a nice price.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	3.45 Aintree
Selection	Hakim (Each-Way)
Strength	3/10
Date	13/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 17.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Was 2nd in this in 2006 off a rating of 125, goes off 126 today and is also a previous course and distance winner. Since then it has fallen, run poorly in a race on heavy and run respectably last time out at Cheltenham in a Grade 3 race. Back at Class 2 handicap level off this rating has every chance at a big price. Will be more suited to a track it has obviously done well at and has definite chance today.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	4.20 Aintree
Selection	Tyson (Each-Way)
Strength	5/10
Date	13/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ SP (Back)
Reasoning	Made a pleasing debut at Haydock on Heavy ground but has form on better ground as a flat horse. Travelled well for a long way but faded near the end of the race at Cheltenham and would probably prefer a test of speed than stamina. Has to reverse form with De Soto but looks capable of improvement and worthy of ew support in an open race where some attitudes and form look questionable. Track should suit.

[BillyHills]

Re: Aintree 13/04/07 345 Aintree: Umbrella Man Fascinating race with only 13 horses carrying the right weight and all the others out of the handicap. One such horse that carries 10-02 is Umbrella Man, the reason i like him is that he still is unexposed where an awful lot of these are running either on past glories on the track or in the hope the national fences improves them which it can do sometimes. Umbrella Man has had a break to wait for the ground to come right and looks the type to keep on improving, jumps well and stays well so i cant see why he wont be thereabouts says he who cant pick his nose at the minute! Good luck