Cardiff v Ospreys (Anglo-Welsh Cup Semi Final)

[2hcb]

Both sides have won against each other at home so far this season, both are full strength here (except Gethin jenkins is missing for the Blues). Cardiff should have more support with the game at the millenium stadium, the bookies can barely split the two. On paper an even match up, but Cardiff are serial big game chokers. You only have to look at their dsapointing Heineken Cup campaign to see this whilst Ospreys beat Sale twice and drew with Stade Francais only missing qualification on try count. That hurt and they will be up for this, their last go at silverware this season. Ospreys have picked a giant pack with plenty of ball carriers, the battle with Marshall and Phillips will be tasty with Phillips joining Marshall at ospreys next year, I expect Marshall to proove he is still #1. James Hook is on fire at the moment and he should outplay Nicky Robinson and outkick Ben Blair. Ospreys also have gamebreakers out wide in Shane Williams and Nikki Walker both of whom looke dgood in the 6N, Ospreys also have one of the best lineouts (statistically) in europe and with Alun Wyn Jones on hot form this should be an advantage. You never know this year with Lyn jones' crazy tactics but I'm going for Ospreys to win here. Ospreys @ 10/11 (Ladbrokes)

[Cymro]

Re: Cardiff v Ospreys (Anglo-Welsh Cup Semi Final) Don't like to bet on my own team but as a Cardiff fan here is my take on the game: The 'chokers' tag mentioned by 2hcb is certainly fair if you look at our big games in Europe but our league form is remarkably solid and we have performed at our best in games against the Ospreys this season. The game at Christmas was a convincing win and in all honesty we should have won at the Liberty - only a Nicky Robinson brain explosion and a lucky bounce threw it away at the end. I have to concede that the O's have a higher quality of player but I do think there are three key areas where Cardiff can exploit an advantage: 1) Back row, to me the Ospreys back row balance is not right with no genuine 7 (Jonathan Thomas is playing there but I don't think he has the pace to play openside). With Martyn Williams in his usual solid form I think we can get an advantage here if we aim to play a wide game. 2) Centres, on paper Cardiff have a big advantage in midfield. I really like Bishop for the Ospreys as a defensive player but I'm yet to be convinced by him in attack, also Parker is not the player he used to be. Robinson and Shanklin have had very respectable outings in the Six Nations and represent a formidable partnership. I'm a bit concerned by their lack of passing ability but I'll be looking to these boys to make ground up the middle. Also worth noting is Czekaj's recent impressive performances against Shane Williams, who I'm sure will be looking to convert the sort of chances he created against England. 3) Mike Phillips, the object of a controversial transfer a few weeks back, I was initially worried that Phillips wouldn't be up for this game but the more I think about I think he will be busting a gut to do his best. He'll be itching for a game after a surprising lack of opportunity in the 6N and I really believe he'll want to get one over on Marshall. In recent times he has had the upper hand (albeit Marshall has been generally disappointing) and if he gets us going forward it makes a world of difference to our game. All in all then, a very appealing game featuring some of the best players in Wales (both on 6N form and young talent such as Tom James). Hope it lives up to its billing.