Datapunter Posted April 28, 2007 Author Share Posted April 28, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 12: Manchester City - Aston Villa, 16:00 cet 1X2: 2.50 - 3.30 - 3.30 U/O: 1.71 - 2.4 1 goal: 1.12 Not much in it between the teams, slight preference for an Under. Just a small 1/4 cover bet on this one. Bet Lay "Total goals - 1 goals or more" 25 @ 1.12 Bet Lay "Match odds - Draw" 44 @ 3.30 Opening position Man City +44 Aston Villa +44 Draw -100 -------------------- no goals +25 1 goal or more -3 Trade 13: Middlesbrough - Tottenham, 16:00 cet 1X2: 2.92 - 3.65 - 2.58 U/O: 1.98 - 2.00 1 goal: 1.07 Again not much between the teams and as the Under/Over is about equal i'm going with no cover bet on 0-0. Bet Lay "Match odds - Draw" 37 @ 3.70 Opening position Middlesbrough +37 Tottenham +37 Draw -100 matched bets, might have to take Portsmouth into the first few minutes in-play as odds on the draw have risen quite a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2007 Author Share Posted April 28, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 14: Portsmouth - Liverpool, 16:00 cet 1X2: 2.92 - 3.20 - 2.86 U/O: 1.69 - 2.42 1 goal: 1.11 Again not much between the teams buit a clear expectation for an Under, so going with a 3/4 cover bet on 0-0. Bet Lay "Total goals - 1 goals or more" 75 @ 1.12 Bet Lay "Match odds - Draw" 44 @ 3.25 Opening position Portsmouth +44 Liverpool +44 Draw -100 -------------------- no goals +75 1 goal or more -9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2007 Author Share Posted April 28, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 13: Middlesbrough - Tottenham, 15th minute, 0-1 Early goal by Tottenham, managed to back at 4.4 for a profit of 6 points all around. 1 in the bag, 2 to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2007 Author Share Posted April 28, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 14: Portsmouth - Liverpool, 37th minute, 2-0 Portsmouth scored 1-0 but the odds on the draw didn't move much, was waiting to get matched at 3.9 when they score a second one :ok Portsmouth +28 Liverpool +16 Draw +16 ------------------ 1 goal -9 2 in the bag, 1 to go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2007 Author Share Posted April 28, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 12: Manchester City - Aston Villa, 40th minute, 0-1 Aston Villa scored in the 24th minute but odds on the draw have hardly moved, now at 3.4 isch, but there seems very little liquidity available. Will try to trade out for a few points profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2007 Author Share Posted April 28, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 12: Manchester City - Aston Villa, half-time, 0-1 Liquidity nowhere to be found on this match, have move to this position: Manchester City -10 Aston Villa +4 Draw +3 --------------------- 1 goal -3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2007 Author Share Posted April 28, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 15: Torino - AC Milan, 18:00 cet 1X2: 5.10 - 2.56 - 2.38 U/O: 1.65 - 2.52 1 goal: 1.14 Away favourite and a clear expectation for an Under, would normally let this go as it looks a bit strange but with a price on the draw of only 2.56 i'm having a go. Going with 1/2 cover bet on 0-0. Bet Lay "Total goals - 1 goals or more" 50 @ 1.14 Bet Lay "Match odds - Draw" 60 @ 2.60 Opening position Torino +60 AC Milan +60 Draw -100 -------------------- no goals +50 1 goal or more -7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2007 Author Share Posted April 28, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 12: Manchester City - Aston Villa, summary, 0 - 2 Was surprised to find the liquidity missing, and after the first goal the odds didn't move significantly. Think i did ok by taking the position i did. Final result 0 - 2 so result +1 Trade 13: Middlesbrough - Tottenham, summary, 2-3 Early goal and traded for equal profit all around. Not a lot of profit mainly due to the goal coming early but i'm not complaining. 4 more goals scored after the first one but the match was in the bag for me, result +6. Trade 14: Portsmouth - Liverpool, summary, 2-1 Got lucky with the second goal, without that it would have gone simular to the Manchester - Villa game. As it is traded out for a nice net profit of +18 All is well so far :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2007 Author Share Posted April 28, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 15: Torino - AC Milan, 27th minute, 0-1 Odds had hardly changed anything by the 27th minute, very nive of Milan to score, took this position: 1X2: 17.0 - 1.44 - 4.0 Torino -16 Milan +30 Draw +7 ---------- 1 goal -7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2007 Author Share Posted April 28, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 15: Torino - AC Milan, half-time, 0-1 Took this position: Torino +14 Milan +26 Draw +14 ---------- 1 goal -7 Nice one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2007 Author Share Posted April 28, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 15: Torino - AC Milan, summary, 0-1 A trade just the way i like 'em, goal by the favourite, nice move of the odds and let it run and AC Milan took the 0-1 to the end. Result: +19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 29, 2007 Author Share Posted April 29, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. After commission and some round-offs todays results are: trade 12 : +0 trade 13 : +6 trade 14 : +18 trade 15 : +18 Bank at 1039 Tomorrow, sunday, 37 games in-play :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moddi1 Posted April 29, 2007 Share Posted April 29, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. no plays? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 29, 2007 Author Share Posted April 29, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. no time to post, too busy betting :lol maybe later, i'm experimenting a bit today ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 29, 2007 Author Share Posted April 29, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. I've been trying out various variations to the theme today, not a lot of profit but good fun, especialy when having a trade on 7 games at the same time :lol Strangely most matches that fit the strategy of this thread today looked like low liquidity, so would probably have had some trouble gettting matched at good prices. One more i can see for today: Trade 16: Benfica - Sporting Lisbon, 21:00 cet 1X2: 2.58 - 3.45 - 3.00 U/O: 1.69 - 2.40 1 goal: 1.11 Fairly evenly matched with a slight favourite on the home team, low scoring expected but i'm reasonably confident we'll see at least one goal so i'll go with 1/2 cover bet on 0-0. Bet Lay "Total goals - 1 goals or more" 50 @ 1.12 Bet Lay "Match odds - Draw" 41 @ 3.45 Opening position Benfica +41 Lisbon +41 Draw -100 -------------------- no goals +50 1 goal or more -6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted April 29, 2007 Share Posted April 29, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. good luck DP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London_Calling Posted April 29, 2007 Share Posted April 29, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Thought I'd take a quick look at how good the market is at predicting Unders and Overs (2.5 goals) - it's rubbish ! :lol Looked at the Prem, the first 349 games of this season, around about Betfair prices. The market predicted 48 would be Overs, and 300 Unders. What actually happened was 162 were Overs and 186 Unders. Market seems very shy of Overs. Good news is if the market does predict Overs, you aren't going to get too many 0-0 draws (none of the 48 so far this season). Thought I'd offer something back as I've enjoyed this thread. Keep it up ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 29, 2007 Author Share Posted April 29, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 16: Benfica - Sporting Lisbon, 26th minute, 1-1 Arghhhh, drat, double drat :wall The lay bet on the draw was only half matched and i didn't notice in time, then i got caught by the first goal, and now Benfica equalise, current position: Benfica +0 Lisbon +0 Draw +3 ------------ 1 goal -6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 29, 2007 Author Share Posted April 29, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 16: Benfica - Sporting Lisbon, 84th minute, 1-1 Last minute goal would be nice :D Benfica +4 Lisbon +4 Draw +0 ------------ 1 goal -6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 29, 2007 Author Share Posted April 29, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 16: Benfica - Sporting Lisbon, summary, 1-1 :wall writing this one down to "pilot error" , result -6 Bank at 1033 London_Calling, i'm just looking at 1 goal and Under/Over to get a basic idea of the chance of 1 goal, never intended it as a definite selection criteria. At least not yet. Very good to know that if a match is expected Over that's as good as 1 goal guaranteed, thanks :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 5, 2007 Author Share Posted May 5, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 17: Rangers - Celtic, 13:30 cet 1X2: 2.46 - 3.55 - 3.20 U/O: 1.88 - 2.10 1 goal: 1.08 Fairly evenly matched with a slight favourite on the home team, low scoring expected but i'm reasonably confident we'll see at least one goal so i'll go with 1/2 cover bet on 0-0. Bet Lay "Total goals - 1 goals or more" 50 @ 1.09 Bet Lay "Match odds - Draw" 38 @ 3.60 Opening position Rangers +38 Celtic +38 Draw -100 -------------------- no goals +50 1 goal or more -4.5 Will probably also go for Fulham vs Liverpool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 5, 2007 Author Share Posted May 5, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 17: Rangers - Celtic, half-time, 1-0 Rangers have scored but not a lot of movement in the price, i managed following position: Rangers +8.0 Celtic +4.2 Draw +4.5 --------------- 1 goal -4.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 5, 2007 Author Share Posted May 5, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 17: Rangers - Celtic, 77th minute, 2-0 Rangers got another one in the net in the 56th minute, letting things ride for a 3 point profit. Trade 18: Fulham - Liverpool, 16:00 cet 1X2: 2.86 - 3.40 - 2.76 U/O: 1.75 - 2.32 1 goal: 1.09 About as close as it gets, low scoring expected so again i'll go with 1/2 cover bet on 0-0. Bet Lay "Total goals - 1 goals or more" 50 @ 1.09 Bet Lay "Match odds - Draw" 42 @ 3.40 Opening position Fulham +42 Liverpool +42 Draw -100 -------------------- no goals +50 1 goal or more -4.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 5, 2007 Author Share Posted May 5, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 18: Fulham - Liverpool, 2nd half, 1-0 Fulham have scored but odds on the draw hardly moved, went back to about 3.00 and rising very slowly. I'm looking at: Fulham +5 Liverpool -15 Draw -13 -------------- 1 goal -4.5 with 5 min to go :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 5, 2007 Author Share Posted May 5, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 17: Rangers - Celtic, summary, 2-0 Went nicely, one team scores, trade on for profit, bit disappointed with only 3 points profit but so be it. Trade 18: Fulham - Liverpool, summary, 1-0 Fulham manage to hang on, was surprised to see the odds didn't move enough for equal profit, again the cover bet appears too expensive. Then again it did look like a 0-0 for quite a long time. Had to take a risk on Liverpool not coming back. Final position was: Fulham +4.5 Liverpool -5 Draw -3.3 -------------- 1 goal -4.5 so just break even, result 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 6, 2007 Author Share Posted May 6, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Another busy busy Sunday, should be able to post a few games, see how it goes, got my eye on a few of the Italian matches as well as Arsenal -Chelsea and Real Madrid - Sevilla looks nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 6, 2007 Author Share Posted May 6, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 19: Arsenal - Chelsea, 17:00 cet 1X2: 2.62 - 3.35 - 3.05 U/O: 1.73 - 2.34 1 goal: 1.09 Pretty close and a high stakes game for Chelsea, low scoring expected but pretty sure we'll see a goal; 1/3 cover bet on 0-0. Bet Lay "Total goals - 1 goals or more" 33 @ 1.10 Bet Lay "Match odds - Draw" 42 @ 3.40 Opening position Arsenal +42 Chelsea +42 Draw -100 -------------------- no goals +33 1 goal or more -3.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 6, 2007 Author Share Posted May 6, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 19: Arsenal - Chelsea, half-time, 0-1 1X2: 1.30 - 5.40 - 22.0 Penalty, man down, tall order even for Chelsea, will let this ride for a while. Arsenal +20 Chelsea -7 Draw +3.3 -------------------- 1 goal -3.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 6, 2007 Author Share Posted May 6, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 19: Arsenal - Chelsea, 80th minute, 1-1 1 - 1 :@ Arsenal +7 Chelsea +7 Draw +6.5 -------------------- 1 goal -3.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 6, 2007 Author Share Posted May 6, 2007 Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 19: Arsenal - Chelsea, summary, 1-1 Considering Chelsea were a man down i didn't trade for equal profit all around, but they did equalise, ah well que sera sera. Just the 3 points profit then. trade 17 +3 trade 18 +0 trade 19 +3 bank at 1039 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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