DP's soccer trading; laying the draw.

[Datapunter]

I'm having a go at some soccer trading. I will be laying the draw and then attempt to make a sure profit as soon as the first goal is scored. This basic strategy isn't new. You can find quite a few variations to the theme if you look around at some forums. And i think, but not sure, that the commercial product called "The Football Cash Generator" is also a variation to this theme.

This thread will contain "in-play" bets and is an exception to the "no-after-eventing" rule under following conditions: 1) All intended trades are posted before the match starts. 2) All bets are posted asap time permitting 3) A summary of all bets per match is posted 4) A screen capture of all bets is provided in the proofing forum.

For me this is a real-life strategy, i.e. i will be putting money on this but please don't expect a lot of profit. Most of the time i will start off by laying the draw and placing a cover bet on 0-0 ( or the 1 goal or more market ) This is the safest variation to the theme but also the least profitable one. For me this is more an exercise in discipline. My intention is to determine a strategy and then stick to it for at least 50 trades/bets. And along the way see what i can learn about myself in the discipline area. A bit of profit would be quite nice of course :lol And secondairy this is a test-case thread for posting about trading and "in-play" betting and hopefully it will give other people some ideas. Starting bank will be 1000 points and the maximum liability at any given time on any match will be no more than 25% of the running bank. Nothing mathematical about it, just common sense.

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Whilst we where discussing "in-play" betting amongst the mods i did one match as example. So here's how it will work: Before each match i will post the intended strategy:

Intended trade strategy: Derby vs Colchester , Derby being favourite as well as the Under being favoured i'm going with a lay of "1 goal or more" , lay of the draw , secure a profit on the first goal. - If the match end in 0-0 , let it all ride and come out break even. - If Colchester score first it's damage control time and i could end up needing to take a loss, will depend on what i'm seeing. - If Derby score first then go with a Derby win. Starting position: Lay draw 38.5 @ 3.6 Derby +38.5 Colchester +38.5 Draw -100.1 -------------------------- Lay "1 goal or more" 101 @ 1.1 1 goal or more -10.1 less than 1 goal +101

During the match, bets placed, time permitting.

Well it's half-time now and the score is 3 - 0 to Derby, first goal came after 2 min and i traded by backing both the draw and Derby to following position: Derby +14.2 Colchester -4 Draw +11.3 -------------------------- 1 goal or more -10.1 less than 1 goal +101 Odds for Colchester where already close to 30.00 so i could have created a position of profit all around but decided to go with Derby for a while. I was going to use the 1.3 spare of the draw to back Colchester after a while but before luckily Derby scored again in the 20th minute and i let it all ride. Providing Derby win it will be a net profit of 4.1 ( before commission )

After the match a summary:

Trade summary: Derby - Colchester has ended 5 - 1, things went according to plan, goal by favourite, stuck with the intended strategy, ended up with a 3.57 point profit ( after commission )

And then in the proofing forum a screen capture of all bets: ( the proofing forum is visible to all the mods as well as members running trading/in-play threads, currently about 50 people )