aliando's laying football lines

[aliando]

gonna test something out and do it with real money, so :hope it doesnt go tits up. basic idea is this (and please tell me if my maths is out here...:\)

• Number of outcomes in a football match = 3
• thus the % chance of predicting one outcome = 33.3rec%
• thus the outcome of 3 games = 33.3%x33.3%x33.3% = 3.7%

using the discarded martingale technique to 3 games only;

• first lay to win 2pts.
• if a loss, second lay to win 4pts
• if loss again, third lay to win 8pts
• if this lost also, line ended with a maximum total loss of 14pts

each bet will be laying a team that is at maximum evens, thus at any stage, a win will return a minimum profit of 2pts per line and that line is closed in profit (after commission, the profit returned will be 1.90pts rather than 2.00 - i intend to continue using the staking set out above for the foreseeable future but may have to alter the strategy to odds <1.90 if this is required). going back to the stats;

• in order to break even, i will need to win 14 points for every losing line
• this means i will need to win 7 lines to cancel out one loss
• in % terms, this equates to losing a maximum of 12.5% of the lines

so, if i'm right, the chances of getting 3 games wrongly layed is 3.70% compared to needing a break even figure of not losing more than 12.5% of the lines. the main thing to obviously be aware of is that the teams that are odds on are odds on for a reason - they are deemed to have a better than statistical chance of winning, which is hopefully where my careful selectioning skills will come in :unsure. I will be considering ANY football match from around the world. hope that makes sense? :unsure all comments welcomed :ok

[aliando]

Re: aliando's laying football lines should add that all bets will be with betfair unless stated. and so onto the first bets... Line 1 First Lay: West Brom (v Crystal Palace) matched @ 1.74 Line 2 First Lay: Morecombe (v Altrincham) matched @ 1.67 :hope