Cheltenham Festival: Thursday

[Aykay1]

Bets and discussion in here...... :) :drums

[Aykay1]

Re: Cheltenham Festival: Thursday Cheltenham, Thursday 4.00: Racing Post Plate

Tikram 14/1 William Hill

I’ve been keeping an eye on this one since he switched stables, as he seemed to have lost his way a bit towards the end of last year - a couple of promising runs have materialised to suggest the King stable have revitalised him and he could be ready to run a big race somewhere. He has 2 entries at the Festival, the other being the William Hill Chase, but this is his optimum trip and I believe he will end up racing here, in a race he won 3 years ago when it was called the Mildmay of Flete.

His first effort for the King stable resulted in a good 4^th, 10 lengths behind Gold Cup hopeful Exotic Dancer and 5 lengths behind Ryanair favourite Taranis. Last time was another encouraging effort finishing 4^th/18, over 3 mile trip that probably stretched his stamina and also after blundering the third last fence. He is basically a good jumper though. He is now rated lower than his last winning mark in April 2005.

He fits all the trends for this race (below) and I expect him to run a big race here. He is my each way bet of the meeting.

- Only 2 winners of the last 14 carried more than 11 stone to victory. - The Pipe stable is generally strong in 20f chases here and has won 4 of the last 9 renewals of this race. - 33 out of the last 42 win/place positions have been placed on its previous outing.

- Another angle is to state that only 9 of 44 placed horses in the last 11 years were not placed last time.

- 9 of the last 14 winners were in the first 2 on their last start.

- Any horse who finished outside the top 6 last time, has not gone on to win in 14 years.

- History shows you need a horse with experience so avoid anything with less than about 12 runs under its belt.

Bearing in mind the Pipe stables record in this race, Vodka Bleu must be rated the main threat.