Cheltenham Festival: Tuesday

[Aykay1]

With the ante post musings out of the way, we now have only 2 days to go :nana Place your final thoughts/bets/analysis here chaps. Lets get the Festival off to a flyer :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: Cheltenham Festival: Tuesday , Tuesday 4.00: William Hill Chase

Rambling Minster 5 pts ew @ 16/1 bet365

Far From Trouble 5 pts ew@ 11/2 Stan James Assuming everyone stands their ground and races, this looks a cracking line up with the unexposed Little Brick, Far From Trouble and New Alco lining up against the more experienced and classy types Juveigneur, Idle Talk and Cornish Rebel.

This is a tough race over 3 miles and with the ground likely to be on the soft side of good, will take some getting. There is a statistic which tells us that only 2 horses out of 30 have succeeded carrying more than 11stone 2lb’s in the last 10 years. Taking it a step further, the last 6 winners have carried less that 10 stone 9lb’s. This can be attributed to the toughness of the race. The soft ground at Cheltenham at the moment can only accentuate this effect.

This gives us a dilemma, as a lot of the fancied horses are carrying well in advance of 11 stone. I’m viewing this as an opportunity to find a big priced selection.

Looking below the 11 stone mark, you can dilute the field further by ignoring anything that isn’t in form – the last 6 winners have been in the first 4 in their previous run. One that catches the eye is Rambling Minster, due to carry 10 stone 8lb’s, he ticks all the boxes with regards to course form, distance, ground conditions and is also bang in form, as confirmed by his last run at Sandown, beating a big field, including fellow Cheltenham hopefuls Kelami and Tikram (my fancy for the RP Plate). That was also a tough race, run at a good pace but he’s been given a good break of over a month to recover from that victory.

He’ll be racing off a career high chasing mark here, which isn’t too much of a concern as it’s the same mark he was competitive off over hurdles and he looked open to further improvement last time out, which is encouraging.

Whilst he hasn’t won at Cheltenham he had a creditable run in the Pertemps Hurdle 2 years ago – nearly brought down but finishing strongly. 2 subsequent good runs at the course followed, both of which suggest he handles Cheltenham fine.

Little Brick is all the rage at the moment but will have to run an exceptional race to win off top weight. The dangers, in my opinion, are Far From Trouble and New Alco, both capable chasers at a high level. Whilst neither has anything to prove with regards to course form, stamina issues nag away at me with regards to New Alco, and his age is also a concern. This could come a year too early for him.

Despite a questionable ride from his jockey, Far From Trouble ran a great race to finish 3^rd at last years festival in the National Hunt Chase for Amateurs, over 4m 1f and also looked the likely Irish National winner before falling at the 3^rd last fence. The stamina and course boxes are firmly ticked. He too is racing off a career high mark but looked open to improvement last year and has had only one run over hurdles this season, seemingly to protect that mark from rising further. He won comfortably. Has he been laid out for this? Quite possibly. 11 stone 4lb’s is the only concern bearing in mind the aforementioned weight statistics but for the sake of 2lb’s I’m willing to back a horse who has pretty much everything else in his favour