Grim Reaper Posted March 1, 2007 Share Posted March 1, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Of course' date=' my mistake [b']Grim :ok You are forgiven ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted March 1, 2007 Author Share Posted March 1, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 That Leeds game is a leave-alone. Can go either way on the h'cap (even though we know Leeds will win) and with the way underdogs are performing thus far I can't take Hudds on with a fat start. Could easily be Leeds by 8 or 20. Might get involved on Hudds if it were to be teeming down with rain come kick off on Sunday. Think I'll leave this one till Sunday......McGuire and dry weather should spell trouble for Huddersfield. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alan partridge Posted March 1, 2007 Share Posted March 1, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Have to say i think theres some cracking bets this weekend. Hull Kr, Wakefield, Leeds and Saints all excellent value. Famous last words but its gonna be a great weekend.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted March 1, 2007 Author Share Posted March 1, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Have to say i think theres some cracking bets this weekend. Hull Kr, Wakefield, Leeds and Saints all excellent value. Famous last words but its gonna be a great weekend.:hope Good luck Alan Partridge :hope cool blog by the way :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mearl Posted March 1, 2007 Share Posted March 1, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Annoyingly skybet have me mega restricted which is a bit of a joke given my winnings last year weren't even in four figures and most of my betting is in the £20-50 range. Anyway, they do have the highest hcaps for my favoured underdogs this week so I've got round the restrictions by placing yankees/trebles/doubles/Lucky 15 and an acca (!!!) on this lot Hull KR +18 Les Cats +8 Wakey +14 Quins 0 Can you believe they restricted me to 50p per bet on the yankee and £2.02 on the trebles and doubles!!! Jokers Hopefully my £36 will turn into £198 all being well. Yes I can believe it. I'm allowed to win similar amounts online. It's more hassle but ring them up and they'll refer you and trading should let you have a reasonable bet on. It's funny how we all try every trick eg multiples, to get our bets on. Only problem with multiples as you know is that you are losing some of your edge. :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mearl Posted March 2, 2007 Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Bradford +10 :loon I was not originally tempted by Bradford on the handicap but since the handicaps came out some important team news has come to light. According to the BBC website: "Paul Sculthorpe will miss the next three St Helens games after having to undergo another operation on his knee." Also according to the Guardian: "Sculthorpe's absence leaves the Saints without four first-choice forwards tonight as Maurie Fa'asavalu, Mike Bennett and Jason Hooper are also out. Keiron Cunningham has been included in their 18-man squad, suggesting he will again play despite a painful hip injury. Bradford's coach, Steve McNamara, is selecting from full strength for the first time since he succeeded Brian Noble last May, with Jamie Langley returning to the squad after missing last week's win against Wigan, and Chris McKenna in line for his first appearance since an off-season elbow operation." That makes the +10 bradford look a lot more attractive, considering the impact Sculthorpe had on the match against Brisbane, coming on when the Saints were 8-0 down. He kicked 3 goals and scored a try. Mike Bennett also played in the winning team against the Broncos. Bradford have only themselves to blame for being asleep in the first quarter, (the Pies racing into a 10 point lead) and last quarter (30-10 lead for theBulls to 32-28!) against Wigan. That coupled with some usual dubious refereeing decisions by Ashley Klein almost gifted wigan the match. Unfortunately it put the kibosh on any bets on the bulls to cover the -6 handicap! :cry McNamara will have made it clear to his team that they cannot afford to let their foot of the gas against St Helens. All in all tough match to call, and it takes a brave man to back against the Saints, but with a start of 10 and the team news I'd rather be with Bradford. It was costly not backing Wigan in running as a hedge bet on the handicap, (as big as +18) last week, so should Bradord take the lead tonight, I will be hedging by backing Saints as long as I'm given points or a level handicap. Recent history shows Saint Helens won this fixture 36-18 in round 6 last year. In 2005 Bradford won 32-18 at Knowsley Road in the final round (round 28), but that match was effectively a dead rubber as Saints had already won the regular season. Bradford did however win 23-18 in the Final Eliminator match at Knowsley road before going on to win the Grand Final over Leeds. For those with the necessary discipline this is a match to watch and enjoy rather than have a bet on. Personally I might even be tempted to have a small play on the Bradford win odds at 3/1 :unsure In addition this week I will mostly be betting on Hull KR +20 Wigan might struggle to cover with Trent Barrett missing. Hull KR surprised everyone with their defeat of Huddersfield away. Their narrow win over an in form Wakefield shows that they have the fighting spirit to keep on until the end of games. Catalans +8 Catalans to win 2/1 Continuing to impress, my only reservation being Gorrel's absence. I'm hoping he has an able deputy. Unfortunately the odds are now 8/11 +8. The 2/1 for a Catalans victory also looks good to me. Salford have had a poor start, have conceded too easily and seem to be missing Karl Fitzpatrick. Wakefield +14 The Widcats have started well and are scoring freely. Hull are still struggling despite the return of Paul Cooke. The books obviously anticipate Hull will turn the corner which is why they are offering +14, but I'd rather be with the form team. Shame that Blue Square are one of the books with +14! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted March 2, 2007 Author Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Bradford +10 :loon I was not originally tempted by Bradford on the handicap but since the handicaps came out some important team news has come to light. According to the BBC website: "Paul Sculthorpe will miss the next three St Helens games after having to undergo another operation on his knee." Also according to the Guardian: "Sculthorpe's absence leaves the Saints without four first-choice forwards tonight as Maurie Fa'asavalu, Mike Bennett and Jason Hooper are also out. Keiron Cunningham has been included in their 18-man squad, suggesting he will again play despite a painful hip injury. Bradford's coach, Steve McNamara, is selecting from full strength for the first time since he succeeded Brian Noble last May, with Jamie Langley returning to the squad after missing last week's win against Wigan, and Chris McKenna in line for his first appearance since an off-season elbow operation." That makes the +10 bradford look a lot more attractive, considering the impact Sculthorpe had on the match against Brisbane, coming on when the Saints were 8-0 down. He kicked 3 goals and scored a try. Mike Bennett also played in the winning team against the Broncos. Bradford have only themselves to blame for being asleep in the first quarter, (the Pies racing into a 10 point lead) and last quarter (30-10 lead for theBulls to 32-28!) against Wigan. That coupled with some usual dubious refereeing decisions by Ashley Klein almost gifted wigan the match. Unfortunately it put the kibosh on any bets on the bulls to cover the -6 handicap! :cry McNamara will have made it clear to his team that they cannot afford to let their foot of the gas against St Helens. All in all tough match to call, and it takes a brave man to back against the Saints, but with a start of 10 and the team news I'd rather be with Bradford. It was costly not backing Wigan in running as a hedge bet on the handicap, (as big as +18) last week, so should Bradord take the lead tonight, I will be hedging by backing Saints as long as I'm given points or a level handicap. Recent history shows Saint Helens won this fixture 36-18 in round 6 last year. In 2005 Bradford won 32-18 at Knowsley Road in the final round (round 28), but that match was effectively a dead rubber as Saints had already won the regular season. Bradford did however win 23-18 in the Final Eliminator match at Knowsley road before going on to win the Grand Final over Leeds. For those with the necessary discipline this is a match to watch and enjoy rather than have a bet on. Personally I might even be tempted to have a small play on the Bradford win odds at 3/1 :unsure In addition this week I will mostly be betting on Hull KR +20 Wigan might struggle to cover with Trent Barrett missing. Hull KR surprised everyone with their defeat of Huddersfield away. Their narrow win over an in form Wakefield shows that they have the fighting spirit to keep on until the end of games. Catalans +8 Catalans to win 2/1 Continuing to impress, my only reservation being Gorrel's absence. I'm hoping he has an able deputy. Unfortunately the odds are now 8/11 +8. The 2/1 for a Catalans victory also looks good to me. Salford have had a poor start, have conceded too easily and seem to be missing Karl Fitzpatrick. Wakefield +14 The Widcats have started well and are scoring freely. Hull are still struggling despite the return of Paul Cooke. The books obviously anticipate Hull will turn the corner which is why they are offering +14, but I'd rather be with the form team. Shame that Blue Square are one of the books with +14! Superb analysis mearl :ok , many would struggle to find counter arguments against your selections. :clap :clap :clap One point regarding the Wigan v Hull KR match, I too think Wigan will struggle to cover 20pts without Trent Barrett (this guy will be awesome in the summer), however look at the bookmaker willing to take the green for Hull +20pts....blue square :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mearl Posted March 2, 2007 Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 I know, and Billy Mountains. Still our luck has to change sometime soon doesn't it? :loon It would be just my luck that this week all the underdogs are caned. :unsure For some reason Bradford +10 is probably the bet I'm most confident about. I should warn though that of my 4 selections, that that's the one Ian Millward has the same opinion on. :eek I was very slow to look at the handicaps this week. Prices shortening around the place might be a bit misleading as some who go in early doors could have played both sides of the handicap with their being such a difference of opinion. Not sure why but when I last checked Hills have swerved the Catalans handicap? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted March 2, 2007 Author Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Salford City Reds v Les Catalans Dragons (+4pts/8pts) Firstly, it feels rather strange to tip Les Catalans in Super League, they were a side I consistently opposed last years (so well done to them J). The Dragons have taken an encouraging 3pts from their three opening games, especially so when you consider the opposition....Hull, Wigan and Leeds, all of which you would consider top 6 material. The 3pts could and perhaps should have been 6pts after losing late to Wigan and drawing with a lacklustre Hull side. So should we now be taking the French seriously in Super League? Damn right in my opinion! They have unearthed some gems from down under this year, similar to Michael Dobson previously, and will fancy their chances against a Salford side yet to win in Super League XII. After much hype, from myself included, The City Reds are fast becoming potential one season wonders after reaching the playoffs in the last campaign. It seems as though Karl Harrison’s new signings are gelling as quickly as super glue from the local pound shop. The Super League XII stats so far show that after 3 full rounds of fixtures only 3 handicaps have been covered. Les Catalans are 100% (3/3) on the bookies handicaps. For those reasons I expected a handicap of +2pt/4pts, the +8pts Catalans, offered by skybet, was too good to miss. However you should never underestimate Salford at the Willows and in the words of Nelly Furtado, all good things must come to an end. So it's only a 1pt stake. The result could go either way, would be surprised to see Catalans lose by 8pts or more. Salford City Reds 20-man squad: Hodgson, McGuinness, Wilshere, Dorn, Robinson, Coley, Alker, Korkidas, Edmondson, Finnigan, Highton, Brocklehurst, Haggerty, Adamson, Littler, Gower, Halliwell, Turner, Jewitt, Williams. Catalans Dragons 20-man squad: Berthezene, Bosc, Casty, Chan, Croker, Duport, Fellous, Ferriol, Gossard, Greenshields, Griffi, Guisset, McGuire, Mogg, Mounis, Murphy, Pelo, Raguin, Teixido, Wilson. Recommendation – Catalans +8pts @ Skybet 1.80 (1pt) Prediction - Salford 26 v Catalans 24 (Scale 1-5) Also going to take the Bradford Bulls with a healthy 10pts against the out of form (domestically) Saints. I sense an upset tonight......the Volcano will be on fire!! Recommendation – Bradford +10pts @ coral (1pt) Prediction - St Helens 16 v Bradford 20 (Scale 1-5) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mearl Posted March 2, 2007 Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 It seems as though Karl Harrison’s new signings are gelling as quickly as super glue from the local pound shop. .........and in the words of Nelly Furtado, all good things must come to an end. So it's only a 1pt stake. :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted March 2, 2007 Author Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Not sure why but when I last checked Hills have swerved the Catalans handicap? :unsure Just noticed that Mearl......not sure what's happening here :unsure For some reason Bradford +10 is probably the bet I'm most confident about. I should warn though that of my 4 selections' date= that that's the one Ian Millward has the same opinion on. :eek After much delibaration I have taken Bradford +10pts @ 1.90 corals....may get chance to do a short write-up, but you say it all in your analysis to be fair mate. Edit: I have added the Bulls bet to my previous preview :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted March 2, 2007 Author Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 :lol I know.....shocking stuff! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted March 2, 2007 Author Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 I may add Leeds (-12pts) to my selections......but will wait for; Results from Catalans/Bradford Team news (McGuire plays?) Weather Conditions (Dry pretty please) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grim Reaper Posted March 2, 2007 Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Please rain in West Yorkshire on Sunday so I can go ahead and back Hudders!! ;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted March 2, 2007 Author Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Please rain in West Yorkshire on Sunday so I can go ahead and back Hudders!! ;-) ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stereoman Posted March 2, 2007 Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Hmmm. Today's Bettingzone Market Moves: 1215: Bet Direct say they have seen money for Super League leaders Bradford Bulls with a 10 point handicap start against St Helens this evening and have been forced to cut the handicap from +10 to +8. Saints will be looking to build on their World Club Challenge success last weekend, but have lost two of their three games in Super League XII to date and can ill afford to lose more ground on the Bulls as they aim to retain their Super League crown. Elsewhere Wigan are proving popular giving up 14 points on the handicap against Hull KR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punto83 Posted March 2, 2007 Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Forecast quite a bit of rain apparantly on Sunday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alan partridge Posted March 2, 2007 Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Good luck Alan Partridge :hope cool blog by the way :ok Yeah thanks mate and im in no doubt it will be massive.:rollin Come on Hull Kr and Saints lets get aff to a flyer.:beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grim Reaper Posted March 2, 2007 Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Forecast quite a bit of rain apparantly on Sunday :lol :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronnie Posted March 2, 2007 Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Morrison at Bradford also scored in all three games this season I believe. He has indeed scored 3 in 3, on that basis i can't refuse the 3/1 Paddy Power offer for him to score anytime. Also taking the 7/4 For Hape to score anytime, has drawn a blank last 2 matches after scoring in their opening round against the Giants, expecting a big game from him tonight. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted March 2, 2007 Author Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 He has indeed scored 3 in 3, on that basis i can't refuse the 3/1 Paddy Power offer for him to score anytime. Also taking the 7/4 For Hape to score anytime, has drawn a blank last 2 matches after scoring in their opening round against the Giants, expecting a big game from him tonight. :ok Good luck Ronnie :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronnie Posted March 2, 2007 Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Good luck Ronnie :hope Cheers m8, Had a fair bit of success on this market last year, hope it continues :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronnie Posted March 2, 2007 Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Also noticed Stan James giving Quinns +2 10/11. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted March 2, 2007 Author Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Stevo is predicting a Bradford win :unsure we are all doomed for sure! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted March 2, 2007 Author Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 ermmmm....i've seen enough :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grim Reaper Posted March 2, 2007 Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Glad I swerved this one - didn't have a strong opinion either way on it. Laid Saints at 1.1 at 16-0 just in case Bulls got the next try. Doubt the price will even reach 1.11 now for a trade chance now that it's just gone to 28-0!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grim Reaper Posted March 2, 2007 Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 10-0 HUll KR so far Great stuff. Hold on Rovers - you don't know how different many bets this will bring home if you can win this!!! (it's in double figures!!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mearl Posted March 2, 2007 Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 I underestimated Saints last week, and with hindsight it's plainly evident that their priority was beating Brisbane Broncos, which was why their Superleague form suffered. I expect them to start covering handicaps from now on. That's why I have not rushed into backing Bradford, even with a start of 10 points. I'll certainly be treading more carefully. Someone also stated on another forum that it's going to be difficult to make money from Superleague this season. So far the signs are that it has been a lot more competitive. :D So why did I not follow my first instinct and err on the side of caution? :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted March 2, 2007 Author Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 Those two tries to Bradford have just us a glimmer of hope....just annoying that they only start playing in the 35th min of the game, 28-0 down! I was pulling my hair out then watching a side giving away penalty after penalty when they have Saints fenced in their own half. It's the worst sin in the game and one which I would have got the hair dryer treatment off the coach from. Let's hope Bradford keep up the momentum in the second half.... Well done to Hull KR by the way 0-26 vs Wigan, wtf!!! :loon :loon :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grim Reaper Posted March 2, 2007 Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Rugby League: Super League XII - Round 4 I cannot believe someone was offering 1.67 on HUll KR when the score was 20-0 has to be the best IP price EVER! Now 26-0 sensational stuff. I must be the biggest BLACK and white Rovers fan at this minute in time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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