The case against .... Kauto Star

[bowles10]

THE REASONS WHY KAUTO STAR IS OPPOSABLE IN THE GOLD CUP ok, been doing some research based on Gold cups since 1996 with some startling results. The last 9 winners of the Gold Cup had ran at the festival with 8 out of 9 finishing 1st or 2nd at a previous festival. See More business was the exception when carried out of the gold Cup by a pipe horse in 98. 5 of those 8 had a previous win at the track. 10 out of 10 had ran between 2 & 5 times that season & 9 out of 10 2-4 times. No horse in those 10 years had come with a 100% record in that season. No horse has won the Aon Chase & then the Gold cup in 8 attempts. 8 out of 10 winners had ran LTO in dec or Jan with the last 5 running in Dec as their prep race. In total, there have been 80 horses that have ran LTO in feb & then contested the race in the last 10 years & 2 have won. in contrast from only 16 runners that have ran LTO in Dec has heralded a whopping 6 winners!! Horses in Jan LTO is 2 winners from 30, therefore Dec & Jan have accounted for 8 out of the last 10 winners from an entry of 46. 7 of the last 10 winners had their prep race at either Leops or Kempton with 6 of those coming from the King George or the Lexus chase. 7 of the last 10 winners contested a Gr1 chase LTO. That was Kauto Star's 5th race this season which has resulted in a 100% record. All wins have been at flat tracks. The horse has only ran once at Cheltenham & fell last festival. The Aon Chase is only a Gr 2 chase & although KS is a Gr1 performer, i think Nicholls has made an error in running the horse so close to the festival. I havent got down to the winner yet but War of Attrition & Exotic Dancer are looking good on the trends.

[Woodie]

Re: The case against .... Kauto Star How many favs have won in the past 10 years mate? After reading these trends it's made me more confident on Exotic Dancer. But still a shed load of horses in with a chance!