Wincanton 10th Jan

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Not sure if the daily meets are put up anymore (apologies if they're not) but had a few spare mins tonight so had a quick look at the 2.40 @ Wincanton. Below are my thoughts and conclusions . . . Top Weight Aztec Warrior, is not without chances, Henrietta Knight trains and has an excellent record over the fences at Wincanton (although in poor form at the minute, generally), as does Jockey Timmy Murphy who has ridden on all but 1 starts so he should know how to get the best from him. Has acted on the ground and distance. Decent effort in a Class 2 LTO but has gone up another 4lb for that run. Mister Quazimodo has 2 wins and two 2nds on soft ground, but all have been in a grade below. Seems to go on the ground but has questions marks over the distance - seemed to peak in his last race at 2m3f - running out an easy odds on winner. Royal Katidoki Has shown hints of ability but too many questions marks to be in the frame for me. Back for the Craic Will probably stay on but again, too many question marks for me to take seriously. Dare to Dream Ditto exactly the previous! Raffaelo is Unexposed and with an excellent trainer/jockey combo in Nicholls/Walsh. Not much form to go off but if he can put behind him in his fall LTO over fences (which seems a genuine one off error) he could go extremely close if he matches his hurdles form. Opera De Couer Carrying a bag less than rivals but has Never been anywhere near as far yet, and the ground is sure to to be hard work. Johnson on board which is a big plus however. Nicholls speaking of Rafaelo back last January said; "We haven’t had him that long but he won’t be going to Cheltenham or anything like that as he was bought to go chasing next season" Seems Nicholls will have the horse primed and although probably not much of a price (2.44 on betfair ATM), my choice is Raffaelo just over Aztec Warrior, who for me, has just a bit too much weight to carry, but should give a godo run for the my money. Win Raffaelo E/W Aztec Warrior :)

[Woodie]

Re: Wincanton 10th Jan Nice write up mate. 2.40 Aztec Warrior (nap) Despite top weight Aztec Warrior hs a real solid chance today. Trainer thinks a lot of this horse and he's been running well this season in better comapany. Timmy Murphy usually rides Aztec Warrior and rides again today. There's a question mark on both the other fancied runners, Opera De Coeur has yet to run over 2 miles and Raffaell fell last time out you would think he should learn from that looking on the bright side he won here last year in January. But I know Aztec Warrior's jumping is not to fault and could be one at a decent price.