BillyHills Posted January 9, 2007 Share Posted January 9, 2007 Ok guys after a pretty successful season in 2006 were starting all over again. A few slight differences this time round and will be explained as we go on. Last season I used a level stake strategy which was ok but didnt reflect my performance on the Sports Punter competition which is the reason I started the thread, so this season I will put the same stakes down as in SP which can be found here BHSP at anytime to verify any bets. Most bets will be E/W either on the side markets or outright and usually I pick 2 or 3 from each event, if the price is less than 4/1 I will back them to win, the odd times I select 2/3 balls or special bets and from time to time I will 'lay' prices on betfair, sometimes to cover my stake in-running. Not expecting a great strike rate but the odds will be rewarding if and when they win. The first event was played last week and my bets can be found both on Sports Punter or in the Golf Thread in 'other sports', just didnt have time to stick this up, anyway got off to a decent start with the second fav V.Singh winning at 9/1, Ogilvy was disappointing and Oberholser withdrew after just one round, could say it was a mixed bag, but profit made so not complaining. As I said any bets i dont manage to post in here before the 'off' can be verified but I will do my utmost to copy them over. BH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 9, 2007 Author Share Posted January 9, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Copied from the Golf thread: Week 1 PGA Tour - Mercedes Championship (Jan 4-7) V.Singh is hard to get away from, had a quiet year last year but still earnt 4 million, has finished in the top6 nearly every year he has played this event and at 9/1 is a great bet, would have been half those odds last year. G.Ogilvy is my tip for the top this season and is always a force in these type of events, has his spells where he fails to take advantage but in all the championship events last year he was there, at 14/1 i reckon he's overpriced. As i mentioned earlier, there are 15 debutants and most of them will struggle this week, i'm going with very competative player that will go right to the end of the four rounds and A.Oberholser at 8/1 to be top debutant looks good to me. V. Singh 9/1 Stan James (1/4, 1234) 5pts EW G.Ogilvy 14/1 Stan James (1/4 1234) 3pts EW A.Oberholser (Top Debutant) 8/1 >Betfred (1/4 123) 5pts EW V.Singh WON £56.25 G.Ogilvy Lost -£6.00 A.Oberholser Lost -10.00 Bank 40.25 After 10 bets i'll put up more stats like the S/R, Yeild etc... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 9, 2007 Author Share Posted January 9, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 At time throughout the season I may do some ante-post bets, these will be posted but not counted in anyway until settled. My first bet for some interest throughout the season is on the Order Of Merit European Tour 2007; Copied from the Golf thread: Just on the Golf, been looking at the order of merit betting and i like to have a long term fancy to follow through the season, not much value about at this early stage but Ian Poulter at 33/1 looks ok seeing as Howell has stated he his playing at least 7 events less and a few of the others may spend more time in the states with this Fed Ex Cup thing, worth a small EW bet. Els and Goosen head the market and are terrible value. Ian Poulter European Order Of Merit 2007 : 33/1 (1/4 1234) Sporting Odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted January 9, 2007 Share Posted January 9, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Looking forward to plenty more profits from you Graham. Best of luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted January 9, 2007 Share Posted January 9, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Yep good luck Graham, will follow with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 9, 2007 Author Share Posted January 9, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Thanks guys! Week 2 Sony Open Nearly all of lasts weeks field follow on here with the only major drop out being Adam Scott Its hard to get away from Vijay in the form he's in at the moment but nothing like the 9/1 we had last week, i like the look of JB Homes who you need to catch just right, played well last week and also in this last year, young Matteson is also one to follow this season and again did well last week and has played ok on this track, other dangers in my book are Immelman and Donald aswell as Ogilvy and Choi, only two Americans in that list so by going for the 'Top USA Player' market were getting rid of a lot of dangers, to my mind anyway. So my two main bets are; JB Homes (Top USA Player) 25/1 >Betfred (1/4 1234) 2pts EW T.Matteson (Top USA Player) 33/1 >Betfred (1/4 1234) 2pts EW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 9, 2007 Author Share Posted January 9, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 European Tour ~ Joburg Open Tricky opener to the European Tour, first time for this event although the course has been used before back in the 80's, so no course form to speak of, plenty of South Africans as you can imagine and a lob sided look to the betting with the appearance of Schwartzel. Reckon Ricardo Gonzalez should go well round here but only 4/1 to be top international player and 16's to win it outright, maybe need to see if he's in the mood first but if he has a decent 1st round he may be worth backing in running. I'm going to the 'Top S.African' market for my two against the field, reasons being that Schwartzel is short fav and after scrubbing out a lot of the no hopers with invites it leaves very few with decent credentials and great value coz of the price of the fav. Two players that are improving all the time and been in the shadow of Els, Goosen and Immelman are Louis Oosterhuizen and Richard Sterne. Oosterhuizen finished a creditable 5th before xmas behind Els in the SA Open, Sterne finished lower but had just one bad round, this is far easier and they are Paying 5 places at Betfred also. L.Oosterhuizen Top SA Player 14/1 >Betfred (1/4 12345) 3ptsEW R.Sterne Top SA Player 11/1 Betfred (1/4 12345) 3pts EW[url=http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/autolink.php?id=39&script=editpost&forumid=16] __________________ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted January 10, 2007 Share Posted January 10, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Good luck Graham.:ok I enjoy my golf and will certainly follow this thread with interest. :hope :hope :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 15, 2007 Author Share Posted January 15, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Nothing this week after a promising first two days in the Joburg. Update Week 1 : +40.25 Week 2 : -20.00 BH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 17, 2007 Author Share Posted January 17, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Week 3 Bob Hope Classic I'm no fan of these type of events so i'll bypass the outrights and concentrate on a nice little 11 man field which is the Top European Market, with Luke Donald out of the way this week they make Justin Rose fav. Poor value but it gives us good prices on a couple of guys who do well in the states and in these type of events. Ian Poulter 11/2 >Bet365 (1/4 123) 5pts EW Greg Owen 11/1 Betdirect (1/4 123) 3pts EW Taking the smaller price on Owen as the place odds are much better, he's 12/1 with another bookie but only 1/5 odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 17, 2007 Author Share Posted January 17, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Week 3 Abu Dhabi Classic Nothing stands out in the side markets and i reckon this field is superb for this time of year, very tempted to leave it alone but Goosen doesnt often mix it with the Europeans nowadays and i still think he's a notch above them at his best. If you fancy him take the 11/1 with VC bet, for Sports Punter reasons only i'm taking the 9/1 at Willaim Hill, (stakes limited at 10/1 and over) R.Goosen 9/1 (1/4 12345) >Hills 5pts EW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 24, 2007 Author Share Posted January 24, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Goosen got placed to salvage something from a poor week Week 1 : +40.25 Week 2 : -20.00 Week 3 : -12.25 Week 4 Qatar Masters Decided to leave the British guys alone as it looks open bar from the top 3, the European market looks a bit more interesting to me, Robert Karlsson had a good finish last week and also plays well around here, at 8/1 looks decent enough value, for an outsider i'm siding with Marcel Siem, very much an improver and will win one this year, played ok last week and is too big at 33/1. R.Karlsson Top European 8/1 (1/5 1234) >Paddy Power 5pts EW M.Siem Top European 33/1 (1/5 1234) Stan James 2pts EW _______________________________________________ Buick I.Poulter Top European 15/2 (1/5 123) Betfred 5pts EW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 29, 2007 Author Share Posted January 29, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Poulter was Top European by 8 shots Karlsson was 5th European so lost out by 1 shot Siem didnt play so refund. Week 1 : +40.25 Week 2 : -20.00 Week 3 : -12.25 Week 4 : +36.88 Bank : = + 44.88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 31, 2007 Author Share Posted January 31, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Week 5 Dubai Desert Top GB/Irish My two against the field are David Howell at 11/1 and Graeme Storm at 40/1. Howell makes his debut this year, only playing premium tournaments this season due to his back injury, a good decision because he always doe well in the big ones, probrably been using the smaller events to tweak his game so we know he'll be spot on here. A class act on his day should be therabouts in this market. Graeme Storm has started the season very well, has promised so much in the past without really delivering, maybe this year he will break through, big price considering some of the others who are bang out of form. Top European After Marcel Siem pulled out last week, its interesting to see him here so i must follow him at 40/1, convinced this guy will finally be more consistant and follow in Langer's footsteps, Johan Edfors was a revelation last season and continues to improve, a sluggish start this season but showed signs of a return last week and 20/1 is big enough to tempt me in this week ahead of Karlsson who came close to being backed. D.Howell 11/1 Top GB/Ire (1/4 1234) >Betfred 3pts EW G.Storm 40/1 Top GB/Ire (1/4 1234) >PaddyPower 2pts EW M.Siem 40/1 Top European (1/5 1234) >Paddy Power 2pts EW J.Edfors 20/1 Top European (1/5 1234) >PaddyPower 2pts EW ________________________________________________ FBR OPEN I'm taking the experience of Geoff Ogilvy at 20/1, played twice this season and looks to be coming into top form about now, always plays well in the big events and why he his behind Immelman and Toms in the betting is a complete mystery to me, so i'll take advantage. In the European market i'm taking a chance on a young improving player in Canizares, played well last week and mark my words this kid will be a big name on the European Tour this year, has played all his amateur golf in the states so this wont be anything new to him and he's fearless which will be a big plus around here, 12/1 is a bit big in my opinion. G.Ogilvy 20/1 (1/4 12345) Skybet 2pts EW A.Canizares 12/1 Top European (1/4 123) VC Bet 3pts EW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 5, 2007 Author Share Posted February 5, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Canizares finishes Top European by 2 shots to salvage some profit. All others were losers. +23pts on the week. Week 1 : +40.25 Week 2 : -20.00 Week 3 : -12.25 Week 4 : +36.88 Week 5 : +23.00 Bank : = + 67.88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 5, 2007 Share Posted February 5, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Well done, Graham :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 5, 2007 Share Posted February 5, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Nice one mate. Had a little piece of Canizares @ 11/1 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 7, 2007 Author Share Posted February 7, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Week 6 *See Golf threads for reasoning Malaysian Open Simon Dyson 8/1 Top GB/Ire Player ( 1/4 1234) >Paddy Power 5pts EW Pom Meesawat 14/1 Top Asian Tour Player (1/4 123) SJames 3pts EW Andres Romero 14/1 Top ROTW Player (1/5 1234) SJames 3pts EW ___________________________________________________________ Pebble Beach Mike Wier 22/1 (1/4 12345) >Bet365 2pts EW Daniel Chopra 10/1 Top European (1/4 123) Totesport 5pts EW Alejandro Canizares 16/1 Top European (1/4 123) Skybet 3pts EW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 11, 2007 Share Posted February 11, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Simon Dyson 8/1 Top GB/Ire Player ( 1/4 1234) >Paddy Power 5pts EW Pom Meesawat 14/1 Top Asian Tour Player (1/4 123) SJames 3pts EW Andres Romero 14/1 Top ROTW Player (1/5 1234) SJames 3pts EW 2 winners there :clap Great stuff, mate :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey barton Posted February 11, 2007 Share Posted February 11, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 well played billy on ur Malaysian Open, i was on jaidee as a supposed good thing, clearly not!!, missed the cut and was useless, and as for pebble beach vijay singh blew me up also, anyways looks like uve been doing well so i will follow with interest, so all the best! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 11, 2007 Share Posted February 11, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Outstanding BH :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 12, 2007 Author Share Posted February 12, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Cheers guys, nice to be appreciated, hope some of you managed to make a profit this week. Dyson won and Meesawat tied in the Malaysian, Chopra managed second in the Pebble Beach event. £72.75 profit on the week. Week 1 : +40.25 Week 2 : -20.00 Week 3 : -12.25 Week 4 : +36.88 Week 5 : +23.00 Week 6 : +72.75 ________________ Bank : = +140.63 Stats this season so far to follow soon. BH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 14, 2007 Author Share Posted February 14, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Week 7 Nissan Open (see golf thread for details) S.Garcia 11/2 Top European (1/5 1234) Stan James 5pts EW D.Howell 14/1 Top European (1/5 1234) Stan James 3pts EW A.Cabrera 20/1 Top ROTW (1/4 123) Stan James 2pts EW Indonesian Open (see golf thread for details) O.Fisher 10/1 Top GB Player (1/5 1234) >Betfred 3pts EW D.Bransdon 18/1 Top Asian Tour Player (1/4 1234) Stan James 3pts EW Cheers BH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 19, 2007 Author Share Posted February 19, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Garcia wins at 11/2 to rescue the week, unlucky with Howell who finishes 5th. Made a right balls up with Fisher, if i'd backed him at Stan James we would have been paid out as they only count certain palyers, same price aswell!! Anyway 11pt profit on the week. Week 1 : +40.25 Week 2 : -20.00 Week 3 : -12.25 Week 4 : +36.88 Week 5 : +23.00 Week 6 : +72.75 Week 7 : +11.00 ________________ Bank : = +151.63 BH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Posted February 19, 2007 Share Posted February 19, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 This is an outstanding performance in what is a very tricky sport to made cash in. Do you play the 2/3 ball market at all? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 20, 2007 Author Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Rafa, thanks mate. I did explain somewhere once before my reasons for not getting too involved in 2/3 balls or match ups. The simple reason is the value has gone in this type of betting for me. The bookies price them up about right and the strike rate would have to be very high to make it pay. The odd occaison they do make a mistake, like not knowing a certain player is struggling with injury etc... but its rare. I find the side markets represent the best value, i agree its a tough sport to make money and can seem like a lottery at times with 150 odd top golfers playing each other every week. Much better to narrow the filed down to managable size, it still amazes me some of the prices you can get in these markets. Noticed Stan James is even better for an extra edge as there outside markets only include the players quoted, which is usually abot 16-20 at most. Anyway we will continue to try and nail a big winner but like last week just because a player is 11/2 (Garcia) doesnt mean its bad value, he should have been favourite, but we'll help ourselves to these errors. Thanks again, BH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Very consistent and impressive results Graham, long may it continue for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 21, 2007 Author Share Posted February 21, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Week 8 No EW bets on the World Matchplay, too much of a lottery as anyone can beat anyone else in matchplay format. Will have a go on 'the field' v 'the big 5' at 1.73 at Betfair. The big 5 are Woods, Mickelson, Furyk, Scott and Els. PGA Tour in Maxico - see golf thread for details. Again a bit of a unknown as its a brand new tournament, first time in Mexico for the tour. No course form so will go on recent form of the Europeans that are playing. Most of them are way out of form so a bet on Richard Johnson at 15/2 looks a value choice. R.Johnson 15/2 Top European (1/5 123) Betfred 5pts EW BH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semikings Posted February 21, 2007 Share Posted February 21, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 Hi Billy' great thread, sorry i don't understand your first pick 'the field aginst the big five' what exactly is your bet, thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Posted February 21, 2007 Share Posted February 21, 2007 Re: BH's Golf 2007 What do you think of backing for a place only as opposed to e/way (is this possible on the side markets (say top European?)) Also, do you find that the dead heat rules significantly eat into your profits? For what its worth I think that David Toms is set for a good week at the matchplay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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