ostfanni Posted April 24, 2007 Share Posted April 24, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Think worth taking Barton Belle @ 8 and Lady Suffragette @ 11 in Towcester 18.50. Ur opinion? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted April 24, 2007 Share Posted April 24, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Classsic e/w value bets. I've decided to take the SP option here plus of course the doubles with the other selection.. May be worth monitoring this race late for any lurkers thet may do better today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ostfanni Posted April 24, 2007 Share Posted April 24, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Seems like Theresa @ 21 also could be selected to become almost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted April 24, 2007 Author Share Posted April 24, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 [Lady Suffragette 6.50 Towcester (1.9/1.99 11/11.5) SP] [Ronsard 5.35 Bath (5.1/5.4 22/23) 22/1 William Hill] The bookies' prices on Barton Belle and Lady Suffragette are currently too low compared to the Betfair win prices for me to make Barton Belle a selection or Lady Suffragette a "definite", but I'm optimistic that SP will be higher for both of them, so certainly worth keeping an eye on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted April 24, 2007 Share Posted April 24, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 [Lady Suffragette 6.50 Towcester (1.9/1.99 11/11.5) SP] [Ronsard 5.35 Bath (5.1/5.4 22/23) 22/1 William Hill] The Lady drifted to 14/1 and both placed :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted April 24, 2007 Share Posted April 24, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Seems like Theresa @ 21 also could be selected to become almost. Got 33/1 for this one late on:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB1979 Posted April 24, 2007 Share Posted April 24, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Got 33/1 for this one late on:ok Therasa 33/1 at first show getting 7.6 place vs around 3.65 place at betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gregprowt Posted April 24, 2007 Share Posted April 24, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 aaaaargh why does no one post them !!! Quote: Originally Posted by cavelloman Got 33/1 for this one late on:ok Therasa 33/1 at first show getting 7.6 place vs around 3.65 place at betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted April 24, 2007 Author Share Posted April 24, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 [Reciprocation 5.05 Wolverhampton (1.21/1.23 2.62/2.72) SP] lost [Lady Suffragette 6.50 Towcester (1.9/1.99 11/11.5) SP] placed (14/1) [Ronsard 5.35 Bath (5.1/5.4 22/23) 22/1 William Hill] placed Definites: Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 1012.77 P/L: +12.77 (Win -442.5, place +455.27) Total staked: 2560 W/P/L: 11/50/67 Yield: +0.50% [Almosts: Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 2129.50 P/L: +1129.50 (Win +638.50, place +491.00) Total staked: 1840 W/P/L: 15/28/49 Yield: +61.38%] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted April 25, 2007 Author Share Posted April 25, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 [Red Lancer 3.30 Epsom (6.6/7 34/36) 33/1 Ladbrokes] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ostfanni Posted April 25, 2007 Share Posted April 25, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Glad I meet u slap. What do u think about 3.40 Perph Fast Forward @ 7.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted April 25, 2007 Author Share Posted April 25, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Glad I meet u slap. What do u think about 3.40 Perph Fast Forward @ 7.5 Sorry, only just saw this. Careful with this race: there are now two non-runners, making it seven runners, so bookies will only pay two places, but Betfair place odds are still for three places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted April 25, 2007 Author Share Posted April 25, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 [Covert Mission 8.05 Worcester (1.7/1.8 6.2/6.4) 5/1 Paddy Power] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted April 25, 2007 Author Share Posted April 25, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 [Red Lancer 3.30 Epsom (6.6/7 34/36) 33/1 Ladbrokes] lost [Covert Mission 8.05 Worcester (1.7/1.8 6.2/6.4) 5/1 Paddy Power] lost Definites: Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 1099.27 P/L: +12.77 (Win -442.5, place +455.27) Total staked: 2560 W/P/L: 11/50/67 Yield: +0.50% [Almosts: Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 2089.50 P/L: +1089.50 (Win +618.50, place +471.00) Total staked: 1880 W/P/L: 15/28/51 Yield: +57.95%] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted April 26, 2007 Author Share Posted April 26, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Franksalot 5.10 Beverley (2.86/3.1 12/12.5) 11/1 Sporting Odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Slap, how is your definites bank growth different to your PL for definites, yet the almosts are consistant? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 I assume there must be a typo there Crouch Potato. It does look a bit odd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted April 26, 2007 Author Share Posted April 26, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Slap' date=' how is your definites bank growth different to your PL for definites, yet the almosts are consistant?[/quote'] Sorry. When I update it I copy and paste from the previous time and edit it, and I must have forgotten to edit the value of the bank. I've corrected it now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted April 26, 2007 Author Share Posted April 26, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Bold Saxon 5.40 Southwell (1.74/1.8 7.6/7.8) SP Very Well Red 5.40 Southwell (3.1/3.45 17/18) 16/1 William Hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Sweeeeet! Cracking pick Slap! :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nymrod Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Sweeeeet! Cracking pick Slap! :notworthy 20p deduction in the £ though coz heavenly backed Rondo was withdrawn just before the off!!!! :@ :@ :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaRoz Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 NR didnt matter - quality stuff as usual.:clap I have noticed that your selections have been doing particularly well on the big field handicaps this year - have you (or anyone?) ever analysed which type of races your picks perform best in? Thats assuming there is any difference... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christo85efc Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Franksalot for the pick though ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nymrod Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 NR didnt matter - quality stuff as usual.:clap I have noticed that your selections have been doing particularly well on the big field handicaps this year - have you (or anyone?) ever analysed which type of races your picks perform best in? Thats assuming there is any difference... Don`t agree with that. Lost 20% of winnings due to a horse being withdrawn just before the off.............STINKS! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 How's that 20% ??? Only 4% with Sporting Odds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soloshchenko Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 I'm new to this thread but backed franksalot today, great pick slapdash! I'll be following with interest in the coming weeks. GL in the next race. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted April 26, 2007 Author Share Posted April 26, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 I have noticed that your selections have been doing particularly well on the big field handicaps this year - have you (or anyone?) ever analysed which type of races your picks perform best in? Thats assuming there is any difference... It's hard to say, I think. When I started to do the large handicaps in 2005, I did them in a separate thread here, and actually gave up after about 200 bets because I had a huge negative yield of about -45% on the win half of the bets, that cancelled out a similar positive yield on the place half of the bets. Of course, as soon as I stopped it I got a couple of big-priced winners! The problem is that the large handicap selections tend to be at longer prices than the others, so there is a very large variance in the returns from the win half of the bets, so that it needs a very large number of selections (several years-worth, probably) to get an accurate estimate of the expected yield. The yield from the place part is easier to estimate, and when I last compared, the figures from the large handicap selections were not much different from the others: around 50% yield on the place bets. Don`t agree with that. Lost 20% of winnings due to a horse being withdrawn just before the off.............STINKS! Well, if it had run, it might have beaten us! :lol I think if you took an early price before the other horse shortened in price, the deduction is based on its price when you placed the bet (or does that vary from bookie to bookie?), so you might get away with a smaller deduction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 I think if you took an early price before the other horse shortened in price' date=' the deduction is based on its price when you placed the bet (or does thatvary from bookie to bookie?), so you might get away with a smaller deduction.[/quote'] Yep ... ep 11/1 and only 4% deducation with Sporting Odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soloshchenko Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 20% seems ridiculously harsh! I took the bet early at odds of 11 on Betfair and the price only fell to 10.23. What bookie are you using Nymrod? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 20% seems ridiculously harsh! I took the bet early at odds of 11 on Betfair and the price only fell to 10.23. What bookie are you using Nymrod? You should not be backing the selections on the exchanges.:wall . Also prices should be taken to safeguard the margins in your favour. The exchanges provide the information to make a value E/W bet. The place element is where the real value is. I take it if the selection placed you would have lost money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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