Hodgey Posted December 31, 2006 Share Posted December 31, 2006 No not those sort of ho's! :loon I'm talking about Home Odds-On Teams. :tongue2 These picks are selected using an advanced scientific mixture of complex formulae and state of the art logistical pinorithoms. ;) Starting bank is 2000pts and all lays are to win a fixed profit of 2% of the current bank. So to start with this will be 40pts. If the bank increases at the end of a betting day, a new fixed profit of 2% is calculated and used on all future picks. If the bank decreases, no change in the stakes. :D First action tomorrow.... :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 1, 2007 Author Share Posted January 1, 2007 Re: Laying HO's Starting bank is 2000pts and all lays are to win a fixed profit of 2% of the current bank. So to start with this will be 40pts. If the bank increases at the end of a betting day' date= a new fixed profit of 2% is calculated and used on all future picks. If the bank decreases, no change in the stakes. :D I made an error here, the stakes are fixed liability not fixed profit. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 1, 2007 Author Share Posted January 1, 2007 Re: Laying HO's First pick: Sheff Wed v Hull 1.83 All prices will be displayed gross and any necessary commission deducted at the end of the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 1, 2007 Author Share Posted January 1, 2007 Re: Laying HO's 2nd one: Yeovil v Northampton 1.87 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 1, 2007 Author Share Posted January 1, 2007 Re: Laying HO's Bristol Rovers v Torquay 1.66 Swansea v Brentford 1.55 Tranmere v Rotherham 1.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 1, 2007 Author Share Posted January 1, 2007 Re: Laying HO's Halifax v Altrincham 1.78 Wolves v Barnsley 1.75 If I can get MK Dons and Doncaster under evens then I'll take them too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 1, 2007 Author Share Posted January 1, 2007 Re: Laying HO's If I can get MK Dons and Doncaster under evens then I'll take them too. Both matched at 1.99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 1, 2007 Author Share Posted January 1, 2007 Re: Laying HO's Wolves v Barnsley 2-0 -40pts Sheff Wed v Hull 1-2 +45.90pts :) Yeovil v Northampton 0-0 +43.80pts:) Tranmere v Rotherham 2-1 -40pts Swansea v Brentford 2-0 -40pts Doncaster v Huddersfield 3-0 -40pts MK Dons v Swindon 0-1 +38.48pts:) Bristol Rovers v Torquay 1-0 -40pts Halifax v Altrincham 1-1 +48.84pts:) So, 4/9 winners and only a late goal at Bristol Rovers prevents a winning start. Start Bank 2000pts Staked 360pts Loss -22.98pts Current Bank 1977.02pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 6, 2007 Author Share Posted January 6, 2007 Re: Laying HO's Slight mix up on commissions by me mean the bank is actually 1978.95pts. Makes no difference to the staking though. One today: Dagenham & Redbridge v Woking 1.77 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 6, 2007 Author Share Posted January 6, 2007 Re: Laying HO's Dagenham twice come from behind to win 3-2. :wall Start Bank 1978.95pts Staked 40pts Loss -40pts Current Bank 1938.95pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 12, 2007 Author Share Posted January 12, 2007 Re: Laying HO's One tonight: West Brom v Luton 1.54 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 13, 2007 Author Share Posted January 13, 2007 Re: Laying HO's One tonight: West Brom v Luton 1.54 2 goals in the last 4 minutes. Absolutely gutted. :cry My luck has to change soon. More to come today.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 13, 2007 Author Share Posted January 13, 2007 Re: Laying HO's Cardiff v Southend 1.75 Bristol City v Tranmere 1.96 Swindon v Wrexham 1.73 3 more possibles to come... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 13, 2007 Author Share Posted January 13, 2007 Re: Laying HO's Hereford v Mansfield 1.97 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 13, 2007 Author Share Posted January 13, 2007 Re: Laying HO's Stockport v Boston 1.95 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 13, 2007 Author Share Posted January 13, 2007 Re: Laying HO's Cardiff v Southend 0-1 :dude +51pts Bristol City v Tranmere 3-2 :puke (0-2 HT :wall ) Hereford v Mansfield 1-3 :dude +39pts Swindon v Wrexham 2-1 :( Stockport v Boston 2-0 :( So with Tranmere chucking away a 2-0 lead and Luton blowing it in the last 4 minutes last night, the weekend's report reads "could have been so much better". :sad Still, laying is a long term game. :\ Overall Start Bank 2000pts Staked 640pts Loss -131pts Current Bank 1869pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 15, 2007 Author Share Posted January 15, 2007 Re: Laying HO's One for this evening: Walsall v Grimsby 1.55 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 18, 2007 Author Share Posted January 18, 2007 Re: Laying HO's Walsall lost (well won, so lost!) A few for the weekend. I'm away so am taking poorer prices and in some cases am unmatched at present - but I believe they will be. That's just the way it has to be this time around: Crystal Palace v Hull City 1.93 Yeovil Town v Brentford FC 1.60 Wycombe Wanderers v Accrington Stanley 1.67 Milton Keynes Dons v Barnet FC 1.82 (partmatched) Burton Albion v St. Albans City 1.69 (partmatched) Crawley Town v Southport 1.85 (partmatched) Stevenage Borough v Cambridge United 1.67 (unmatched) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted January 21, 2007 Share Posted January 21, 2007 Re: Laying HO's Looks like you did alright with the prices mate, good to know you haven't laid them at prices too high by taking them earlier in the week. I didn't get a chance to look at them before KO on saturday but friday night the prices to back were: Crystal Palace v Hull City 1.9 Yeovil Town v Brentford FC 1.60 Wycombe Wanderers v Accrington Stanley 1.69 Milton Keynes Dons v Barnet FC 1.82 Burton Albion v St. Albans City 1.7 Crawley Town v Southport 1.85 Stevenage Borough v Cambridge United 1.68 Just a pity there weren't a couple more winners/losers :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 23, 2007 Author Share Posted January 23, 2007 Re: Laying HO's Thanks for the info on prices mate. Like you say, looks like I did ok on the prices just the results aren't coming in yet. :( I have faith in it though..... Crystal Palace v Hull City 1-1 +43pts Yeovil Town v Brentford FC 1-0 -40pts Wycombe Wanderers v Accrington Stanley 1-1 +57pts Milton Keynes Dons v Barnet FC 3-1 -40pts Burton Albion v St. Albans City 1-0 -40pts Crawley Town v Southport 2-1 -40pts (90th minute :puke ) Stevenage Borough v Cambridge United 4-1 -40pts Start bank 2000pts Staked 960pts Returns 689pts Current bank 1729pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 23, 2007 Author Share Posted January 23, 2007 Re: Laying HO's 3 tonight: Swansea v Gillingham 1.68 Stevenage v St Albans 1.53 Morecombe v Southort 1.58 (unmatched as yet - but probably will be as soon as I post this as it's becoming quite a profitable backing thread! :lol ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 23, 2007 Author Share Posted January 23, 2007 Re: Laying HO's Morecombe v Southort 1.58 (unmatched as yet - but probably will be as soon as I post this as it's becoming quite a profitable backing thread! :lol ) Matched at 1.60 instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 23, 2007 Author Share Posted January 23, 2007 Re: Laying HO's A bit better tonight. Swansea v Gillingham 2-0 :( -40pts Stevenage v St Albans 1-2 :dude +72pts Morecombe v Southport 0-0 :) +65pts Start bank 2000pts Staked 1080pts Returns 907pts Current bank 1827pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 27, 2007 Author Share Posted January 27, 2007 Re: Laying HO's 6 for today: Scunthorpe v Millwall 1.98 Doncaster v Rotherham 1.61 Walsall v Boston 1.53 Swindon v Macclesfield 1.77 Hartlepool v Bury 1.74 York v Grays 1.86 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 29, 2007 Author Share Posted January 29, 2007 Re: Laying HO's Only 2/6 winners producing approx 40pt loss on Saturday. One tonight: Oxford v Rushden 1.72 Full results round up tomorrow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 30, 2007 Author Share Posted January 30, 2007 Re: Laying HO's Last night result: Oxford v Rushden 0-1 :dude Tonight's: Birmingham v Southend 1.44 Derby v Burnley 1.88 Sunderland v Palace 1.81 Mansfield v Torquay 1.84 Full update tomorrow..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 30, 2007 Author Share Posted January 30, 2007 Re: Laying HO's Full update since the last one: Scunthorpe v Millwall 3-0 -40pts Doncaster v Rotherham 3-2 -40pts Walsall v Boston 1-1 +72pts :) Swindon v Macclesfield 2-0 -40pts Hartlepool v Bury 2-0 -40pts York v Grays 2-2 +44pts :) Oxford v Rushden 0-1 +53pts :dude Birmingham v Southend 1-3 +87pts :dude Derby v Burnley 1-0 -40pts Sunderland v Palace 0-0 +49pts :) Mansfield v Torquay 5-0 -40pts 5/11 winners producing 65pts profit. Now that's more like it. Start bank 2000pts Staked 1520pts Returns 1411pts Current bank 1891pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 31, 2007 Author Share Posted January 31, 2007 Re: Laying HO's 3 tonight: West Brom v Plymouth 1.66 Southampton v Sheff Wed 1.78 Bristol City v Cheltenham 1.53 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted February 1, 2007 Author Share Posted February 1, 2007 Re: Laying HO's Last night's results: West Brom v Plymouth 2-1 -40pts Southampton v Sheff Wed 2-1 -40pts Bristol City v Cheltenham 0-1 +72pts :dude So a small 8pt loss last night. Not too bad though with only 1 winner out of 3. One month in and the stats are as follows: Summary Bets Placed 41 Units Staked 1,640.00 Units Returned 1,523.02 Profit (116.98) Yield -7.13% Strike Rate 39.02% Average Lay Odds 1.74 Average Odds (Back) 2.40 Average Stake 40.00 Current Bank 1,883.02 I had paper tested this for six months before I started for real and of those 6 months only 1 was a loser so typically the first month for real is a losing month! :eyes The strike rate in that time was up around the 49% mark so if I can get this strike rate up to about 45% in the next couple of months I think this has some potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 Re: Laying HO's interesting hodgey - the idea may fit with the system i've been working on. may end up replicating the idea in the future. good luck and will follow with interest :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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